After speaking to farmers in several states, experts and industry insiders, my sense is that a #wheat crisis is imminent for India in the next 4-5 months, or earlier
The agri ministry is estimating a crop size of record 111 million tonnes, but actual production is likely to be at least 10% lower due to the March heatwave and also shift in acreage from wheat to mustard
India is aspiring to feed the world but might end up with egg on its face when domestic consumer prices rise sharply in near future; retail prices are already on the rise
India may even be forced to impose stock limits and an export ban as and when atta prices cross 40 rs a kg, marking a major pain point for consumers in addition to already high cooking oil prices
Global wheat prices are unlikely to cool anytime soon as rising #fertlizer prices may push farmers in other countries to grow oilseeds instead of cereals which require more chemical nutrients
What India is doing with #wheat is in sharp contrast to China, the top producer globally, which has been on a stocking spree since last year..
The blame for this impending crisis can be traced to inaccurate #data and poor #estimates. Surprised, the agriculture, food and commerce ministries are clueless...
P.S. wheat yields are also impacted by non availability of DAP fertilizer last October
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