Thee Horizons H1, H2, H3 can be refactored through a systems lens. About two systems competing, with H2 being transitory factors that might strengthen or weaken H3 from H1.
Here's a post refactoring causal layered analysis with systems lens. By linking the four layers through a #systems lens, we have a better idea of the systems intervention that we might need.
Causal Layered Analysis - like 5 Whys, but also more specific than that - it's an attempt to get at the deep stories that we walk around the world with and don't realise. I look at how Causal Layered Analysis might be use for adaptation and advocacy. medium.com/open-source-fu…
The quick intro to causal layered analysis (CLA) - has got four layers:
- litany
- causes and structures
- worldviews
- metaphors
Litany is the world as it is today. The issues, concerns, the complaints. The surface issues.
#Migration flows as an civilisational issue.
Five things:
- #community_identity
- sudden infrastructure provision
- terms of movement
- resource provision
- economic absorption. #Ageing will also be another issue influencing how and where people move.
Wishful thinking 1: "end of history" is here. Liberal Democracy is here. Everyone will converge there. Wrong. An open, free society needs to be actively defended, not taken for granted.
Wishful thinking 2: Liberal Democracy is Compatible with Anti-Regulatory Short-Term-istic Capitalism - no, its not. We created societies with "races to bottoms" - traded deep thinking for shallows, unable to invest in long-term.