Some overall market thoughts on $BTC and #Altcoins. Cliffs: I still think market is going up over the next few weeks and we're going to see 55k+ and alts will follow. After that, I have no clue. #Bitcoin $ETH
#Bitcoin is still in a bullish market structure IMO. I still think we're ok and have higher highs/higher lows. I'll change my bias if the $BTC low at 37k gets taken out on high time frame charts or we print some sort of lower high (48k>) on this next move.
I'm personally just thinking about this consolidation as a big range; the last move was a deviation and not the true break given the volume/lack of follow up. Ofc its easy to say this in hindsight but it's ok, more chop = stronger explosion out of the break.
Target is around 55-60k, it's a high volume node and S/R level. I expect btc to move up there when it finally breaks out of this range.
How are alts going to do? $ETH should follow $BTC for the most part. low 4ks should be about right if btc goes to 55k.
Now, in terms of altcoins to buy: it will ALWAYS depend on your strategy. There are some great coins to scalp and some great coins to swing and great coins to just longer term hodl and then dump later.
I think a lot of coins are accumulating rn. They never look like it when they are doing it but they are there and there are many coins like this.
Coins I like scalping due to volatility and liquidity: $GMT $APE $KNC
This doesnt mean long or short, just means trade your strategy. Im not really scalping rn.
Coins I like swing trading: Long $LOOKS $ZIL $NEAR
I think these move strongly in the next week or so
Coins that are slower trades/investments/hodl for a few weeks and then dump are $SHIB $AVAX $SAND $DAO $MC and many many others. These are not good active trades though IMO. Better to just DCA in and sit on it I think.
We'll see if this overall idea is correct on my end. I'm positioned and exposed now to a lot of stuff (btc/eth/shib/near are my biggest bags with some AVAX too). I still think that Layer 1s are mostly the best bets but there are going to be new narratives popping up in 2022.
move to earn was one sector that recently moved hard but I havent seen many totally new concepts recently.
Thus far, 2022 has been hard to trade in and I've mostly been inactive the last few weeks due to traveling. IMO you need to find the investment/trade that fits your overall time horizon and risk profile. I'm still mostly doing passive investing over the next few weeks.
My current bags are:
$BTC
$ETH
$NEAR
$AVAX
$SHIB
I have some smaller cap coins too but those are more holds I'll do for a while.
Let's see if I'm right or wrong!! Positioned accordingly and will be selling my bags as btc gets near 55k. Where the following low is printed will determine my next move.
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Today's $BTC post will be on support WEAKENING every time it is touched. I like to use the analogy of a dropped ball. The first time you drop it, it has the best bounce off the ground. Then weaker and weaker bounces after. The classic example of this is #Bitcoin at the unbreakable 6k level.
One thing that always stuck with me is @CryptoCred saying 'first test, best test'.
So you can see the first initial reaction being the strongest bounce. Why is that? I don't know exactly but my guess is that you see lots of resting orders + late shorters getting screwed.
So the first reaction on a bounce is always the strongest. Note: I'm talking about big liquidation events typically, where you see long wicks and huge volume/volatility. Not a slow grind down.
How to play these big $BTC dumps in a bull market:
I'm going to give you some things to think about when trading/reacting to these #Bitcoin events. Probably will just be a long list of rambling thoughts.
-If you're not around, on your computer during these events, probably skip it. Don't trade; the first few minutes are SO important to catching any sort of dip or shorting. This is VERY important to understand. Late longing/shorting 15 minutes means you've missed most of the move
-These events happen even in bull markets. This is a chart from 2021; you saw plenty of nasty candles that were even bigger than todays
-This is natural and the way of things. monkeys get over levered and we see a market cleansing.
It's really important to understand that Altcoins DONT always move up in USDT value when #Bitcoin is mooning/going strong.
Take a look at $BTC during the start of its strong run at the end of 2020.
$ETH #Altcoins
Short thread
After spending most of 2020 in hibernation/chop/consolidation zone (after the March 2020 black swan event), BTC started to fucking moon. It went from 10k to 40k in the span of just a few months.
During 2020, alts had an extremely strong run. They got destroyed in 2018 and 2019 and btc.d was super high.
Then in the spring of 2020, altcoins started to have some life again for the first time in 2 years.
Having different portfolios for different strategies is very key as a crypto investor.
You can do it how you want but how I do it:
1) HODL stack ( $BTC and $ETH) 2) Investment stack (usually lower cap shitcoins) 3) Swing trade stack 4) Short term / scalp stack
1) HODL stack: usually $BTC $ETH and sometimes 1-2 other alts. I don't usually touch these much, just let it sit until the bull run.
Why? Because I know I'm going to fuck it up and trade and lose this $ in choppy environments. It's better to always have a safety net
I think it's important to have a HODL stack for a few reasons.
-you'll prob fuck it up trading
-you'll probably sell too early
-you'll always be exposed to crypto, which helps when price is pumping.
Usually put this in a cold storage wallet and don't touch it overall.