Its... a reflection of Hubris, of the United States as a hyperpower. Of globalisation starting to make itself felt. We live with the consequences today.
There was the idea that China's governance might converge to Western norms. Had examples of village elections at that time. Looking back it was possibly wishful thinking.
There was the notion that, global capital/financial markets will force transparency on companies and countries from doing bad things. Overestimate the ability for companies and countries to influence back.
We now experience the connectivity backlash. Efficient supply chains with no fat; supply chain instead becoming points of influence for sharp coercion sometimes.
Environment degradation continued. No "sustainable globalisation" at all.
Useful activity to look at these influential books in the past and to review how their ideas continued to shape conversations.
Thee Horizons H1, H2, H3 can be refactored through a systems lens. About two systems competing, with H2 being transitory factors that might strengthen or weaken H3 from H1.
Here's a post refactoring causal layered analysis with systems lens. By linking the four layers through a #systems lens, we have a better idea of the systems intervention that we might need.
Causal Layered Analysis - like 5 Whys, but also more specific than that - it's an attempt to get at the deep stories that we walk around the world with and don't realise. I look at how Causal Layered Analysis might be use for adaptation and advocacy. medium.com/open-source-fu…
The quick intro to causal layered analysis (CLA) - has got four layers:
- litany
- causes and structures
- worldviews
- metaphors
Litany is the world as it is today. The issues, concerns, the complaints. The surface issues.
#Migration flows as an civilisational issue.
Five things:
- #community_identity
- sudden infrastructure provision
- terms of movement
- resource provision
- economic absorption. #Ageing will also be another issue influencing how and where people move.
Wishful thinking 1: "end of history" is here. Liberal Democracy is here. Everyone will converge there. Wrong. An open, free society needs to be actively defended, not taken for granted.
Wishful thinking 2: Liberal Democracy is Compatible with Anti-Regulatory Short-Term-istic Capitalism - no, its not. We created societies with "races to bottoms" - traded deep thinking for shallows, unable to invest in long-term.