Thread by @HenriVanhanen

Where we are with 🇫🇮 and NATO: a brief update on the subject. Short answer, the train is still moving steady and onward to applying for NATO membership. While things have developed rapidly in a short time period, we are long past the question "will we" and moved on to "when".

1. First things first: the public support. The majority of Finns have supported NATO membership since the war started in February. The most recent polls by @hsfi 13.4. at 59% in favor and by @MTVUutiset 11.4. at 68% in favor. The supportive trend continues.

2. The Parliament: as of 22.4. out of the 200 MP's in the Finnish Parliament 114 are in favor of NATO, 11 are against and the stance of 75 MP's is not publicly known. Safe to say that the numbers and the trend in favor of NATO are quite evident as well.

yle.fi/uutiset/3-1241…

3. This means that if the Parliament would need a 3/4 majority to ratify a NATO membership or vote on the support for applying, we would still need 36 out of the 75 undecided MP's. Considering that most of them would come from SDP or the Center Party, this won't be a problem.

4. Last Wednesday, the Parliament started its debate on the Government's security policy report and NATO, which came out last week.

Here's a thread on the report and NATO:

https://twitter.com/HenriVanhanen/status/1514229053808648192

5. The debate itself reflected either direct or indirect support for NATO membership by several MP's/parties. The PM party SDP's group leader emphasized how "Russia's actions have brought Finland many steps closer to the necessity of a military alliance."

yle.fi/news/3-12411802

6. Now the security report has moved into relevant committees in the Parliament and hearings are on their way. Yet, it's noteworthy that the Parliament/Finland can make its decision on NATO without the completion of the committee work: the decision is not linked to a schedule.

7. The support for NATO members for Finland is firm and continues. President Niinistö called his Hungarian counterpart and received backing for our decision. Similar messages have been heard from elsewhere by Hungarians: they're not a problem.

https://twitter.com/niinisto/status/1516805865373933571

8. So far it seems that no government opposes Finland's NATO membership. Under the circumstances this is a very positive sign and also highlights how Finland's added value to the Alliance is understood broadly.

A thread on the support statements:

https://twitter.com/HenriVanhanen/status/1511984311959965696

9. We made a visit to Washington DC earlier this week and also received a positive attitude for Finland's and Sweden's NATO accession. DC values our contribution to European security, here's @RobbieGramer's cover of our visit:

foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/22/fin…

10. The interim period: the potential dangers posed by Russia are well understood in Finland and within NATO. Everyone understands that the credibility of NATO's open-door policy is essential and this applies to safety of two potential member states as well.

11. Art. 5 security guarantees are for members only and this not the subject of discussion at the moment. Instead, we should talk about "security assistance", which could come in many forms and also depending on what Finland would want and about the quality of potential threats.

12. It's understood that Russia's reactions could range from military measures to diplomatic statements: at this point only one's imagination is the limit. This requires serious and extensive preparations, which is something in place already anyways.

ft.com/content/c5e376…

13. When it comes to the potential security assistance by NATO, this could of course be regional and territorial defence cooperation with 🇫🇮 and 🇸🇪, Art. 42.7, sharing of information and political declarations signalling commitment to a safe accession and strengthening deterrence

14. All in all, a lot can be accomplished in the name of "security assistance". NATO has also given signals of its willingness to do.

https://twitter.com/HenriVanhanen/status/1512387475334909955

15. A concrete example of defence cooperation is the activities between Finland and the UK. While this is a preplanned exercise, its something that could be considered in the near-future too by for example the UK-led JEF.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQPress/status/1517606040925351936

16. Shortly about 🇸🇪. While the Government has not given statements about 🇸🇪 applying for NATO, it seems to have comprehended 🇫🇮 seriousness and is carefully starting to lean towards a membership. My assumption is that 🇸🇪 will follow 🇫🇮, but remains TBC.

politico.eu/article/sweden…

17. About the timeline ahead as it now seems: the Finnish Parliament will vote to join NATO in May. And then in June, Finland will present its formal application at NATO’s summit in Madrid after which we will enter the interim period/ratification process.

18. I'd expect Finland to announce its desire to join NATO within weeks, in the first of week of May at earliest. PM @MarinSanna is going to give a speech for Atlantic Council of Finland on the 3rd of May and her's as well as the SDP's stance in their TBC party council meeting.

19. To sum: Finland's NATO application is going to be process of three acts: 1) securing the path to and applying for NATO, 2) the interim/ratification period and 3) implementation as a member of the Alliance.

We are now approaching the end of act one with Finland and NATO.

@AnnwieAnna @morcos_pierre @IlvesToomas @NTenzer @patrikoksanen @RikeFranke @ulrichspeck @elisabethbraw @terischultz @ianbremmer @alexstubb @RachelRizzo @shashj @ZCarlander @MansRAD @FHeisbourg @AKendallTaylor @andrewmichta @rmilneNordic @ConStelz @MikaAaltola @rmilneNordic

And this of course is a thread, forgot to mention that! 🧵