Spoonamore Profile picture
Apr 24 12 tweets 5 min read
A 3rd 🧵(and probably final) on the #Dmitrievsky #chemicalplant explosion and fire. I spoke with two former team members who have worked at plants like this in the US, and was introduced to a new friend who did a site visit/QC/Process Inspection at this plant in 2012.
All three are not twitter people. All three work in the industry. One at F100 firm, the others at smaller chem-firms. All have read my summary and agree it is fair. They also, like me, are sort of surprised at the level of interest here on this subject. Nice for folks to care.
First - this is very large facility and looking at @Maxar images together we agree it is badly damaged, but not destroyed. The shipment, storage and blending facilities seem intact, but the fire has clearly destroyed one of - perhaps the - most important part of the plant.
If you read my 2nd 🧵,I discussed that this plant made specific chemical fractions. This plant as of 2012 had four building doing fractioning by several different methods and made a very large range of products. dcpt.ru/en/production/…
Second - the explosion and fire destroyed one of these four building and badly damaged a second. The other two appear untouched. The fire will also have caused substantial damage to the feeder systems, cooling, water controls, electrical systems etc. plantwide. #ItsBad.
Our call member who been on site was IN the now destroyed building. It had multiple uses, but at the time was optimized for making high purity Toluenes/energetic MethylBenzenes. These are key #chemicals for 100s of products that "flex". He was there for
a gasket manufacter.
This was the only building on the site doing that work. We also are sure one of the remaining four just does Butyle Acetate (the chemical that gives apples the smell of an apple BTW) which is used in every cosmetic in the world. Get your #nails done? You've used it.
The #accident vs. #sabotage discussion. In short, we don't know. The facility in 2012 had a "metric shit ton" of work arounds and juryrigs which would never fly in the EU or US "but was run by some super smart and capable guys and put out good product."
If it was #sabotage and you only take out one of the four process, we all agree they picked the right one to damage a huge range of military hardware. Bushing, engine gaskets on seals, dials, instruments, and gaskets on rockets/fires all need these inputs.
If was an #accident this is a very delicate and dangerous high-temp/pressure system. It may be simply they are being asked to run 24/7 and - something went sideways, or were being asked to retool to cover a sanctioned input. Our consensus: more likely #sabotage 60/40.
Lastly the impact. No flexible plastics inputs for 12 months +. The whole plant shut down for 1-10+ weeks depending on infrastructure impacts. There will also be a huge restart challenge. None of us would want to be working there and deal with it.
As of Yesterday, Their web site has ceased taking ANY orders. All products now listed as "not available". On Friday they still took orders. I would bet they get butyle acetate back up first, the timing of that will tell how bad the plantwide infrastructure was damaged. 🇺🇦😼

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More from @Spoonamore

Apr 23
A 2nd 🧵to provide context on the #Dmitrievsky #Chemical Plant, where it fits in the supply/value chain impacts it could have on that value chain. I will do a 3rd on the damage at this specific plant after getting input from friends who know this plant / type of plant
1st, thanks to all the readers who took an interest in my first reaction thread, and for the many questions that came in. 2nd this fire will not end #RussianWarCrimes or the attack on #Ukraine. It causes a large and long(?) disruption for multiple defense industry suppliers.
This plant was not a primary refinery. Those are the massive facilities which take raw crude oil or gas-Liquids mostly from huge pipelines and do first fractions. These huge plants then send traincar loads of first cuts to many places, including plants like #Dmitrievsky
Read 11 tweets
Apr 22
A 🧵on the #Dmitrievsky #Chemical Plant explosion and fire. On @Twitter I mostly post on Data Security (20year as a CxO and #Votehacking. But I also have 9 years as CEO and longer on BODs of #AdvancedMaterials / #NanoMaterials.
The extreme damage, perhaps total destruction of this chemical plant is going to have a spectacular and massive impact on the #RussianArmy. Possibly grinding entire systems to a stop in weeks, perhaps even days.
Like many industrial sectors in #Russia, they tend to be centralized, massive + singular. This is generally a result of historic centralization of production under the Soviet model, and a fear of building massive high-cost infrastructure by nonRU firms #BASF #DuPont etc.
Read 14 tweets

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