1/4: A little light reading for your weekend: @NRCgov has released the first installment of its mammoth, decade-long "Level 3" Probabilistic Risk Assessment study. nrc.gov/docs/ML2206/ML…. It is seeking public comment by June 21. nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc…
2/4: The bottom line: the risk of a large, #Fukushima-like radiological release from the two-unit "reference" plant due to "internal" accidents and internal floods only is about 1 in 11,000 to 1 in 29,000 per critical-year, depending on whether FLEX measures are credited.
3/4: When external events (floods, earthquakes), low-power and shutdown modes, and spent fuel pool accidents are included, based on prior studies, these risks are likely to increase by at least a factor of 4: that is, to as high as 1 in 2,500 per year.
4/4: Although the report doesn't name the "reference" #nuclear plant, it is Vogtle in #Georgia. However, @NRCgov cautions that "use of L3PRA project reports to assess the risk from the reference plant is not appropriate." So what then is the point of all this work? 
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