Thread by @KelseyDav

Back from leave and disappointed to see that the future of the #IranDeal remains in limbo and so focused on the politics of modifying IRGC sanctions.

I'm surprised to see so little discussion about the nuclear cost Biden will pay if he fails to act. 1/

Lest we forget, the JCPOA is a nuclear deal. Designed to address a decades long nuclear crisis and block Iran’s pathways to nuclear weapons. The imperative of restoring the deal's guardrails is getting lost in the debate about the political cost of delisting the IRGC. 2/

While Biden would certainly pay a price for delisting the IRGC, effective nonproliferation policy that benefits U.S. security, not domestic politics should guide decision making on JCPOA. 3/

If Biden compounds Trump’s irresponsible decision to sabotage an agreement that proved effective & verifiable & allows Iran’s program to grow closer to a bomb, he will pay a much higher political price than criticism over lifting select IRGC sanctions. 4/

Since Iran began breaching limits imposed by the deal in 2019 its program has expanded, but the breaches have been calibrated to increase pressure, not a dash for a bomb. 5/

Steady growth, combined with continued US intel assessments that Iran is not engaged in key activities relevant to developing a nuclear weapon might give the illusion that the US has time on its side and the current limbo is sustainable. But that is a dangerous miscalculation. 6/

Limbo is not sustainable—I would flag two risks that are increasing the longer Biden waits: 1) Iran crosses nuclear threshold that poses an intolerable risk to the US & 2) Iran’s research activities significantly reduce the nonproliferation value of the accord. 7/

On the first point—Iran’s program growing to pose an intolerable risk to US policymakers: absent significant de-escalation by Iran, its breakout (the time it would take to produce enough weapons grade material for a bomb) will continue to decrease from the current 2-3 weeks. 8/

Growing stockpiles of uranium enriched to 20 and 60 percent and plans for installing more advanced centrifuges make it all but certain that the timeframe will drop further. 9/

Decreasing breakout combined with more limited monitoring by inspectors raises the real risk that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb before detection from the IAEA. It’s hard to see the US and Israel willing to live with that risk. 10/

The typical playbook-sabotage and attacks to roll back Iran’s program-only buys time in the short term. In the long term, history has repeatedly shown that Iran will build back and further expand its nuclear program. 11/

As two eminent Israeli security experts recently noted in a Haretz piece, "sanctions, sabotage and friends in the Gulf aren't enough to stop Tehran going nuclear" and "a return to the JCPOA is critical for Israel’s national security" 12/
haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…

The 2nd risk is that the knowledge Iran gains from new research activities that are currently experimental or planned—such as advanced centrifuge & uranium metal—changes our understanding of how Iran might pursue nuclear weapons down the road, if that decision was made 13/

Again, this underscores the necessity of a swift return to compliance with the JCPOA before Iran's mastery of these new capabilities significantly alters our understanding of Iran’s possible pathways to nuclear weapons. 14/

If the US waits too long and has to take these new capabilities into account in negotiations on a future deal, it will likely do so with a weakened pressure campaign & diminished international support – based on frustration with US sanctions overreach & current geopolitics 15/

For these reasons and others I joined more than 40 experts in a statement expressing strong support for a swift restoration of the #IranDeal 16/
armscontrol.org/sites/default/…

The United States does not need and cannot afford to manufacture a new nuclear crisis with Iran. But that is the direction we’re headed if Biden continues to let the politics of the IRGC sanctions & not effective nonproliferation policy to guide his decision making. 17/

There is still time to restore the #IranDeal - an agreement that will roll back & ensure permanent restrictions on Iran's nuclear program - but that time is short. It is past time Biden closed this deal to protect the United States against the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran. 18/18