Mining world dealing with capex and opex costs running out of control.
Explosives +300%
Steel +150%
Cement +200%
Power cost +170%.
Most commodity prices will not have to double again, just to make projects work.
Resource stocks need to ramp up big time and get access to funding for development or there will be more shortages of everything in time. @elonmusk can bitch all he wants about the #lithium price…
And how fucking abundant it is with in the earth’s surface. But you still got to pay miners, engineers and geo’s to build and operate mines. And there’s labour shortages in all categories. Plus you need materials like steel, copper, cement, and power to build the mine and..
Machinery. And the back log of machinery is only growing worse. Cost to build machines going up. This cycle inflation is real and will continue. Fed trying to talk down inflation is only going to discourage mining investment.
Financial players fucking around shorting commodities and getting bailed out by bullshit ‘exchanges’ are only gonna make commodity shortages greater in the real world. Just wait until the food prices really start ramping up. We are seriously in for some shocking inflation
It may be tempered for periods due to short term economic collapses or industry specific recessions. But it’s just gonna keep coming back because old mines are depleting and new ones are not being financed quickly enough to keep pace.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
I’m often amused by the culture of long only investors that refuse to even attempt to benefit from the ups and downs in the market during a multi year bull market.
I totally get that for some they think it’s best to buy and hold and just wait it out as they will be rewarded well for doing so in the end. I respect that philosophy and also the fact that many/most are busy with their families and livelihoods and can’t watch and trade
But what I find truly amusing and often pitiful is the few that are so wrapped up in their long term views that it actually seems to anger them when some long term bulls choose to try to fade rallies and buy dips.
I’m always amazed at the willingness of some to pay crazy spikes then likely others to sell huge dips in such a short time. Lotus $lot.ax for example. Blew out over 40c last week to 46c and now here it is on sale and I grabbed some at 33.5 and 34
I had figured it would run to 40c and pull back to 37 for a bit. But both targets exceeded. I had sold a little at 42c and was feeling Fomo. Bought most back at 36c and still nibbling now to get my full position again. Trimming on the spikes and buying dips triggers cap gains
But as I look over my performance of the last two years on some of these stocks I’m very glad with how its worked out. Only thing is you do have to plan to raise cash to pay the tax man and must plan to do that on spikes and put it aside. Don’t want to be a forced seller
As we see the price moving over $60/lb my gut says we are on the verge of an explosive run like we saw in the 2006-2007 run up $150/lb but as I’ve said I think we can see $200/lb this cycle because of the huge shortage of credible suppliers in the market that can contract 10 yr
#uranium requirements to satisfy the new builds, restarts and life extensions are overwhelming the supply demand models. Forecasters haven’t even begun to model for it all and either have fuel buyers. Plus little to no contracting has been done to begin to satisfy this demand
The industry moves so slow but let’s just consider the $440 bln investment China is planing and how it will impact the market.
Target 150 reactors. ~70mln lbs per annum
So the desire is to have 3 years of inventory at start up with 1.5 required for initial cores 4.5 x 70 = 315
Bought a Motorhome and going for a cruise. Thinking I might head out Nevada way and drop in on @MillennialMPM
Would be good to spend sometime with CEO Jason Kosec and tour the properties. Might even try to do a twitter spaces interview.
If you have questions… fire away. Will talk precious metals, small cap resource, exploration, geology, and so forth… will take me at least a week to get over there. Can’t wait to see the night sky out in the middle of nowhere Nevada…
I downloaded ‘Harvest Hosts’. Gonna give it a try along the way. Seems like a cool app.
But it might slow down my travelling time cause there’s a hell of a lot of cool micro breweries and wineries between my place and $mpm.v :)
- all real estate ~$330T
- all bonds ~$130T
- all stocks ~$80T
Might be some double counting and over lap but let’s just say it’s +$500T
Interesting to consider how something are valued in contrast.
For example all the #uranium stocks in the world is sub $50b. The average net worth in the USA is ~$121,000 so in that context we collectively value the sector like we do the cost of a fast food lunch meal ($12) for the average American.
It’s difficult to put into context how huge $500T in global assets is. It’s a mammoth number that has blown out due to central bank money creation, ultra low interest rates and huge government deficit spending (funded by central bank money creation)
$u.un $sruuf seems poised to break and have a run over its 52 week high. Taking spot #uranium for a break out move. Was pleased to see that the month end smack down games appear to be over with. #utilities are scrambling now. #lfg
Let’s go Queenie Baby! Bust out the pen and let’s paper this… #royalassent#uranium