Story from a Paxlovid user—@RossR8 was positive to til 6, tested negative days 7-12. Doctor said he’s not contagious anymore—he didn’t buy that because of Paxlovid rebound🏀 risk. He tests positive again on day 13 & symptomatic—thankfully protects his pregnant wife from #COVID19!
2) We have known about Paxlovid rebound risk for a while. I warned about it before. I took Paxlovid too after my April COVID had suffered a 1-day symptomatic rebound myself. Pfizer data submitted to the FDA quietly warned about it too on days 10-14!
3) I specifically warned about rebound not because it is severe (it’s likely not because Paxlovid is a really good 90% hospitalization risk reduction drug), but because rebound could trigger another outbreak once someone is complacent.
4) It’s becoming clear the rebound after Paxlovid is real. Don’t get me wrong— paxlovid definitely saves lives and prevents hospitalizations—but I worry how many people are going to keep transmitting their virus after the rebound.
5) PLEASE understand Paxlovid is still a very good drug—90% lower hospitalization! Paxlovid is so good that it sorta “snowplows” for the immune system because it is just so damn effective, & your body doesn’t develop a strong robust immune response immediately. That’s the theory.
6) many doctors reporting Paxlovid rebound. We never used to hear about this phenomenon before the widespread use of Paxlovid. It’s an amazing drug to stop hospitalization & severe COVID, but I fear the negative then positive rebound will cause more havoc.
7) So what to do about this Paxlovid rebound issue? But nobody knows for sure. Still take drug for sure. Some say take it longer (refill?), but no data. Some say take it half dose daily. Why? Maybe like kids—snowplowing for kids 100% & they don’t learn 100%. Note: Not med advice.
8) So what annoys me the most? I’m annoyed Pfizer buried / downplayed it in their EUA submission for Paxlovid—they made a barely passing mention of it and didn’t describe what % of drug recipients got rebound and who. Plus, FDA didn’t highlight the risk enough at EUA green light.
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⚠️OMICRON IS NOT MILDER—Huge study by Harvard scientists finds #Omicron variant is **not intrinsically milder**, in a study of 130,000 people. "We found that the risks of #COVID19 hospitalization & mortality were nearly identical”—just as my team warned.🧵 reuters.com/business/healt…
2) The new study, based on records of 130,000 COVID patients in Massachusetts, is unique and "pretty strong," said Dr. Arjun Venkatesh of Yale School of Medicine and the Yale Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, who was not involved in the research.
3) Rather than just looking at numbers of deaths and hospitalizations, as earlier studies have done, it **accounted for patients' vaccination status and medical risk factors** and compared similar groups of people, Venkatesh said.
NEW—FDA has issued remarks about Paxlovid and the recurrence / rebound 🏀 of positive #COVID19 after a negative. FDA admits it definitely happens but claims it’s only 1-2% with rebound in the trials, & no clinical guidance change. But I count more than 1%. fda.gov/drugs/news-eve…
2) Based on lay reports Im hearing everywhere, it’s seems way more than 1-2% having a rebound positive after taking Paxlovid. A lot more.
3) Im originally trained as a clinical epidemiologist, and evaluating clinical data. And the sheer volume of reports Im seeing, it can’t possibly by just 1-2% rebound. Just eyeballing the figure from this Pfizer charge shows way more than 1-2% with a rebound of viral load.
2) What is excess deaths? It’s the excess above the average per capita mortality rate across 2015-2019. It’s how many more people have died above historical rates. It captures COVID and indirectly those who also died because they couldn’t reach the hospital in time.
3) most of the excess deaths are #COVID19. And the CDC acknowledges others are due to people delaying their care because of COVID’s hospital surge and crush on the healthcare system. That’s equally tragic, and indirectly also COVID caused.
BREAKING—US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has just tested positive for #COVID19. He recently attended the @whca dinner event with 2600+ people, where reporters from many media outlets have also now tested positive. ➡️ This Vf headline was on point. #WHCD#COVIDisAirborne
2) We epidemiologists and aerosol scientists have warned about the poor ventilation and high density being a bad setup for almost guaranteed transmission at @whca dinner if anyone in the audience had subclinical (undetected) virus. And indeed the superspreading event happened.
Let this sink in—“The republicans who said ‘my body my choice over the COVID vaccine’ now say I have no control over my body (to not be forced to give birth to baby of a rapist)”. Let that hypocrisy sink in.
📍BREAKING—here it comes—Jonathan Karl tests positive for #COVID19 on Monday after attending the @WHCA’s dinner—sitting next to Kim Kardashian and talking one on one with Biden at #WHCD—yes that dinner we epidemiologists all warned about.
2) We epidemiologists and aerosol scientists have warned about the poor ventilation and high density being a bad setup for almost guaranteed transmission at @WHCA dinner if anyone in the audience had subclinical (undetected) virus. Welp and it happened.