There was a large #fire in #Russia yesterday that may have been more than just another industrial accident. The fire was in #Dzerzhinsk, a city in the Nizhny Novgorod region, 230 miles (370 km) east of Moscow. A 🧵. 1/
The fire in Dzerzhinsk, Russia occurred in an old industrial park outside the city center. It started when a railway tank car exploded, which set other nearby railcars on fire as well. The tanks contained either solvents, fuel, or lubricants, depending on reports. 2/
Eventually the fire covered an area of about 2000 square meters (0.5 acres). That's not a particularly big area, but the fire was strong and generated a lot of smoke. Almost 100 firefighters with 29 pieces of fire equipment were called in to put out the blaze. 3/
Using overhead video footage of the aftermath of the fire (see next tweet), it's possible to pin down the precise coordinates where it occurred: 56.24884128471169, 43.56739648754635. 4/
Here's that overhead video footage of the aftermath of the Dzerzhinsk, Russia fire that I mentioned. 5/
There are two reasons this fire in Dzerzhinsk may be more than just another industrial fire in Russia. The first has to do with the city where it occurred. Dzerzhinsk historically has been one of the centers of chemical weapons manufacturing in Russia. 6/
There is no evidence I know of that chemical weapons still are being produced in Dzerzhinsk. But from 1941 to 1965, a variety of such weapons were in fact produced in the city. The legacy of this production has led Dzerzhinsk to be called "the most polluted city on earth." 7/
The company that produced most of the chemical weapons in Dzerzhinsk from 1941 to 1965 was the "Kaprolactam Organic Glass Factory." That tidbit of information, it turns out, brings us to the second aspect of yesterday's fire in Dzerzhinsk that makes it a tad suspicious ... 8/
The company that owns the facility in Dzerzhinsk that caught fire yesterday is: OJSC Kaprolactam. That's right. The facility that caught fire belongs to the successor company to the "Kaprolactam Organic Glass Factory," which produced chemical weapons after World War II. 9/
Now, I have seen no evidence to suggest OJSC Kaprolactam currently produces chemical weapons, or that it even produces chemicals used primarily for the production of munitions or other military purposes. 10/
It does seem noteworthy to me, however, that the company that owns the facility that caught fire yesterday in Dzerzhinsk, Russia has historical ties to chemical weapons production. It's also why I think it's fair to be suspicious as to the cause of the fire. 11/
As a side note, the pollution in Dzerzhinsk, Russia is so extensive that it led a number of stray dogs in the area to turn blue. This apparently is due to the fact that the dye known as "Prussian blue" once was extensively produced in Dzerzhinsk. 12/

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More from @ThatKHersch

May 6
There were reports over the past few hours that another Russian naval vessel, the Admiral Makarov, has been hit by Ukrainian anti-ship missiles. More recent evidence, however, suggests nothing has happened to the ship. I've created this 🧵 to track news & info on the topic. 1/ Image
This was perhaps the first report that the Russian naval vessel Admiral Makarov had been hit by Ukrainian anti-ship missiles. It made clear that the reports were unconfirmed and there was as yet no evidence to support them. 2/
Since this initial report about the Admiral Makarov, another report has come out saying that radio traffic out of the Russian naval base on Sevastopol, occupied Crimea, has been normal. This suggests the Admiral Makarov has not been damaged. 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 5
For the "civil disobedience in Russia" file: Here are a couple of people caught recently on CCTV throwing Molotov cocktails at a military conscription office in Nizhnevartovsk, a city of 250,000 in western Siberia. 1/
If you thought the two people who threw the Molotov cocktails at the conscription office in Nizhnevartovsk, Russia were disappointed they were caught on film, you'd be wrong. They filmed it themselves and shared their version of events on social media: 2/
Once again, though, there's more to this story than meets the eye. The city where the Molotov cocktail attack took place, Nizhnevartovsk, is the second largest city in a part of Russia called the "Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug." This region produces 51% of all of Russia's oil. 3/ Image
Read 4 tweets
May 5
There was yet another suspicious #fire in the #Kursk region of #Russia today. It appears to have been quite large. The location is not yet known, nor is the nature of the facility that burned or how the fire started. I will update this 🧵 as more info becomes available. 1/
This video ostensibly shows the same fire in the Kursk region of Russia, but from a different perspective. some social media updates are suggesting that the fire may be at a chemical plant. 2/
So I'm starting to think this fire in Kursk, Russia is more interesting than it seems at first glance. It has been geolocated to these coordinates: 51.81416109728775, 36.161273094485914. Here are an aerial photo and street-side photo of the area. 3/ ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
May 5
The May 4 edition of the @TheStudyofWar / @criticalthreats Ukraine war update is out. Here is a link to it. The rest of this thread contains, verbatim, the key takeaways found in the update. 1/
👉understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
@TheStudyofWar @criticalthreats Key Takeaways:

1. "Russian forces engaged in several unsuccessful ground offensives to the south of Izyum and did not significantly advance efforts to encircle Ukrainian troops in the cauldron to the southeast of Izyum and west of the Donetsk-Luhansk frontline." 2/
Key Takeaways (contd.):

2. "Russian forces reportedly stormed the Azovstal Steel Plant on May 4 and are likely operating inside the plant’s facilities." 3/
Read 4 tweets
May 4
A 🧵 to track opinions and information related to whether or not Russia will declare war on Ukraine by mid May and start general mobilization. Feel free to reply with suggestions for links to include in the thread.
How likely do you believe it to be that Russia will declare war on Ukraine by mid May and start general mobilization?
Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), believes Russia will announce a general mobilization on May 9
en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/8…
Read 14 tweets
May 4
Russia launched a major barrage of missiles at locations throughout Ukraine tonight. Almost 20 missiles hit mainly infrastructure targets throughout the country. Another 8 missiles were shot down by Ukrainian air defense systems. 1/
kyivindependent.com/national/russi…
Railway-related infrastructure was the most common target of the Russian missile attack. Electrical substations and waterworks also were hit. 2/
One notable aspect of tonight's missile attacks on Ukraine is that many of the missiles were launched from over the Caspian Sea, a distance of as much as 1100 miles (1800 km) from some of the targets in Ukraine. 3/ Image
Read 4 tweets

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