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Katherine Hersch Profile picture
Katherine Hersch
@ThatKHersch
Engineer, economist, historian, and business strategist. I closely follow the war in Ukraine and mainly post about it.
Josef Böhm Profile picture Mike the Great Profile picture 2 subscribed
Sep 14, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/ The leading German newsweekly, Der Spiegel, is reporting that the Biden administration is "quite sympathetic" to the idea of #Germany being the first country to provide #Ukraine with modern, western-designed #tanks and other armored vehicles.
spiegel.de/politik/deutsc… 2/ Spiegel: "US diplomats recently signaled to the German government on several occasions that Washington was quite sympathetic to an explosive idea: that Germany would be the first country to announce tank deliveries and thus possibly involve other EU partners." Image
Sep 13, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
1/ I like a lot about the analyses @MarkHertling shares on this site. But he has some explaining to do about a point in his latest thread where he suggests that there is something unexpected and potentially really bad about Ukraine wanting to recover Crimea.

Huh? Image 2/ Hertling includes "Will UKR attempt to recover Crimea?" in his list of "black swans" that could occur in the war in Ukraine. He defines "black swans" as "unpredictable" events that often have "severe consequences."
Jun 29, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Two major U.S. media outlets have recently reported that officials in the Biden administration are starting to doubt whether #Ukraine can regain Ukrainian territory currently occupied by #Russia. 2/ In a report early yesterday, CNN said "White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will ever be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war ..."
cnn.com/2022/06/28/pol…
Jun 28, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
1/ A neglected aspect of yesterday's "G7 Statement of Support for Ukraine" is how it talks about #Ukraine's #borders. The language is a positive development for those who (like me) believe the #war should end with #Russia gone from every square inch of Ukrainian territory. 🧵 Image 2/ Many past statements by allied leaders have been notable for not even mentioning Ukraine's borders. President Biden's essay in the New York Times a month ago, outlining U.S. goals for its support of Ukraine, is a notable (and notorious) example.
Jun 27, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
1/ The first of the German-supplied PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers are now in action in eastern #Ukraine. The German newspaper Bild has a report and photos of the howitzer in action.
bild.de/politik/auslan… 2/ One of the co-authors of the Bild report about the PzH 2000's being in Ukraine, @ronzheimer, also is sharing photos and video of the howitzer in action.
Jun 20, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/ There have been reports today that Russian installations on occupied Snake Island have come under heavy bombardment by Ukrainian forces. There also is speculation the attack may have been carried out using HIMARS rocket launchers.

Would this be possible?

Yes.

A short 🧵. Image 2/ 70 km (43.5 miles) is the most commonly reported range of HIMARS launchers using the GMLRS munitions Ukraine's allies will be providing. That would put Snake Island within range of Ukrainian coastal areas under Ukrainian control. Image
May 16, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Comparison of territorial control in the war in Ukraine, May 2 00:00 UTC vs. May 16 00:00 UTC, based on overall maps for Ukraine from @War_Mapper.
A short 🧵. (1/4) Territorial control around Kharkiv over the last two weeks (May 2 00:00 UTC vs. May 16 00:00 UTC). (2/4)
May 16, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
So there were two reports out within the past 24 hours indicating it is still possible the U.S. could send Ukraine the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). This would be a significant development if it happened. A quick 🧵.1/6 First, while in Stockholm on Sunday on his way back from a visit in Kyiv, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said giving Ukraine HIMARS and more tanks is still "under consideration." 2/6
May 15, 2022 • 11 tweets • 8 min read
An ever evolving 🧵 for tracking news and other information related to Russian president Vladimir #Putin's #health. 1/ #Putin #health 🧵 2/
One of the most extensive reports suggesting that Russian president Putin might be seriously ill appeared in early April in the Russian investigative news outlet Proekt. It suggested Putin might have a serious thyroid-related cancer.
proekt.media/en/investigati…
May 14, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Pentagon press secretary John F. Kirby held a briefing yesterday (May 13). Here are a few comments he made regarding the war in Ukraine that are of interest. 1/7 "[We] continue to have indications that the Russians have not overcome their command and control and their unit cohesion issues ... [We] have indications that morale continues to be an issue inside certain Russian units." - Pentagon press secretary Kirby. 2/7
May 14, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
There were several reports on Friday (May 13) that Ukraine could receive a German-made surface-to-air missile system sometimes compared to Israel's "Iron Dome." Delivery of the first of these "IRIST-T SLM" systems, however, could take until November. 1/ 5
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u… The IRIS-T SLM is based on the IRIS-T air-to-air missile (pictured below). The IRIS-T is highly regarded for its ability to target not just enemy aircraft, but also other air-to-air missiles and surface-to-air missiles. 2/5
May 13, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Am seeing a lot of tweets saying things like "Israel has granted Estonia's request to transfer a Blue Spear anti-ship missile system to Ukraine." These appear to be rumors and misinterpretations of the hard news that is out there. 1/ Estonia's foreign minister Eva-Maria Liimets noted earlier this month that Israel has not blocked any request her country has made to transfer Israeli-developed systems to Ukraine. 2/
jpost.com/israel-news/ar…
May 13, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
There once again were briefings today (May 13) at the Pentagon, focused largely on the war in Ukraine. Here are threads, individual tweets, and other resources with details and highlights related to the briefings. Thread with all of @JackDetsch's individual tweets from the "senior U.S. defense official" briefing at the Pentagon today.
May 13, 2022 • 21 tweets • 9 min read
There's another "senior U.S. defense official" briefing going on at the Pentagon. Here is a 🧵 with the individual tweets @JackDetsch is putting out from the briefing. @JackDetsch
May 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This recent NY Times article does a really nice job explaining the challenge Ukraine faces defending its territory with older artillery systems. It also explains the tactics its forces use to compensate for the limitations of the systems they have. (1/3)
nytimes.com/2022/05/12/wor… I've not had much success, by the way, determining the location that is discussed in this article. The dateline says "Pryvillia" but none of the three towns with this name that Google Maps has for Ukraine are "on the west bank of the Dnipro River," as stated in the article. (2/3)
May 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Russia heard at least twice today from Ukrainian allies that Russia should agree to an immediate cease fire in its war with Ukraine. Is this something Ukraine actually wants at this point? Has anybody asked Ukraine if this is what it wants A short 🧵 (1/4) Earlier today, we learned that German chancellor Scholz told Russian president Putin that "there must be a cease fire in Ukraine as quickly as possible": (2/4)
May 12, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Comparison of territorial control on three key fronts in the war in Ukraine: Kharkiv, the Donbas, and Kherson-Mykolaiv. (1/4)
May 11, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The poll I set up about Russia pursuing general mobilization has closed. Almost 58 percent of respondents thought it "unlikely" or "very unlikely" that Russia would pursue mobilization by mid May. Seems there is some wisdom in the crowds. 1/
The results of the poll are all the more interesting because it was part of a broader thread documenting what was being said about the likelihood of mobilization, and a lot of those voices were saying mobilization was LIKELY. 2/
May 11, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
There was a "senior U.S. defense official" briefing today (May 10, 2022) at the Pentagon, followed by a briefing with Pentagon press secretary John Kirby. Much of the discussion at both briefings concerned the war in Ukraine. A 🧵 with resources related to the briefings. 1/6 Image Foreign Policy magazine reporter @JackDetsch posted a thread not long after the "senior U.S. defense official" briefing with what he felt were the highlights of the briefing. 2/6
May 6, 2022 • 26 tweets • 10 min read
There were reports over the past few hours that another Russian naval vessel, the Admiral Makarov, has been hit by Ukrainian anti-ship missiles. More recent evidence, however, suggests nothing has happened to the ship. I've created this 🧵 to track news & info on the topic. 1/ This was perhaps the first report that the Russian naval vessel Admiral Makarov had been hit by Ukrainian anti-ship missiles. It made clear that the reports were unconfirmed and there was as yet no evidence to support them. 2/
May 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
For the "civil disobedience in Russia" file: Here are a couple of people caught recently on CCTV throwing Molotov cocktails at a military conscription office in Nizhnevartovsk, a city of 250,000 in western Siberia. 1/ If you thought the two people who threw the Molotov cocktails at the conscription office in Nizhnevartovsk, Russia were disappointed they were caught on film, you'd be wrong. They filmed it themselves and shared their version of events on social media: 2/