Thread by @simona__scotti

In the South #Caucasus there has not been a common response to the invasion of Ukraine. 🇬🇪 is bound to a strategy of “non-deterrence”, 🇦🇲 remains subordinated to Russia’s security interests, and 🇦🇿 pursues its balancing policy.

A thread🧵

#Armenia is the only Russian ally in the South Caucasus. As a result of its defeat in the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Armenia is more reliant than ever on its security partnership with Russia, which leads the government to avoid any statement on the war in Ukraine.

Armenia hosts two Russian military bases - the Russian 102nd Military Base in Gyumri and the Russian 3624th Airbase in Erebuni Airport. Additionally, the Armenian population still living in Karabakh is dependent on Russian peacekeeping troops for its own survival.

Russia serves as Armenia's only security guarantor, and Yerevan is basically Moscow's geopolitical hostage.

jpost.com/opinion/articl…

Moreover, Armenia is experiencing a new wave of immigration of educated Russians, and it tries to take advantage of this influx. Many Russian companies have already relocated to Yerevan, and Armenia’s economic ministry published a guide for Russian businesses seeking to relocate.

#Azerbaijan policy is being characterized by a balancing act between Moscow and Kyiv. Since the beginning of the war, Baku sent conspicuous humanitarian assistance to Kyiv (and Chisinau), while refraining from imposing sanctions over Moscow.

So far, what has differentiated Azerbaijan from other Eastern Partnership countries is that Baku has remained committed to its pragmatic foreign policy concerning bilateral relations with Russia due to a variety of reasons, the Karabakh issue being the main one.

Given the presence of around 2.000 Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh and the potential support to Armenia that Russia could provide if provoked, Baku's cordial approach needs to be read as strategic in order not to anger Moscow.

The government of Azerbaijan thus has to take a cautious approach in order not appear either too pro-Moscow or pro-Kyiv, given the potential negative consequences of either decision.

geopoliticalmonitor.com/azerbaijans-de…

For many in #Georgia, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought back painful memories of its own war against Russia in 2008. Yet, the current Georgian government has opted not to join ranks with the West imposing sanctions on Moscow in the wake of its brutal invasion of Ukraine.

Georgia and Ukraine consider one another strategic partners, united by their struggle against Russia and their path for the European integration. However, relations between the two governments have long been frosty.

eurasianet.org/amid-war-bitte…

After the invasion of Ukraine, Georgia took a cautious stance, apparently afraid to go too far in confronting Russia, and President Zelensky reacted by withdrawing Ukraine’s ambassador from Tbilisi.

Even in the face of war between Russia and Ukraine, the South Caucasus remains deeply divided. The war may be shaking the region, but the three countries continue to pursue the same entrenched paths as before.