Poem cited in🧵is by #AndriyMalyshko «Dearest Mother of Mine, you had many sleepless nights
You led me to the fields next to the village
And on my long journey, you saw me off at dawn
And gave me an embroidered towel for luck» #StandWithUkraine#MothersDay photo credit Erin Treib
Correction this photo is by Alex Lourie
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Russian intel driving “new” strategy (take SE) is wrong & won’t result in “win” & strategic goal. There’s a reason why RU hasn’t been able 2 fully take Mariupol/most cities in Donbas after 2 months & it’s the same reason when hey tried & failed 2 take Mariupol in 2014/15 a🧵1/8
Mariupol 2014/15 ordinary LOCAL Russian speaking Ukrainians (workers at plants) organized community patrol groups 2 protect their city! Oligarchs backed & the UKR army (with help of volunteer battalions) defended. But it was ordinary local folks who defended what was “theirs” 2/8
When war began in 2014 median recruit was a local (from south East) male Russian speaker. Majority of volunteers came from SE regions. When we visited Ukrainian controlled Donetsk it was Eerie because all local men of fighting age were absent they volunteered 2 defend Donbas. 3/8
I am puzzled by political scientists unwillingness to accept that maybe the surveys are not wrong & that maybe, in fact, Russians did rally around the flag & moved in their willingness to back the war once it started. 🧵1/3
We should understand how motivated reasoning works & the activation of affective identity. State TV propaganda has been focused on affective ID & tapped into underlying beliefs among Russians that Ukrainians although a brotherly nation is one lower in rank. 2/3
& 1 that should submit 2 Russian demands. Humiliation of 1st weeks only further allowed 4 formation of collective beliefs about blame attribution. Once losses experienced instead of blaming themselves Russians find blame outside of their in-group & blame “lower” Ukrainians. 3/3
“This symposium employs established social science theory to frame and place into comparative perspective the case of Belarusian mass mobilization that began in August 2020.” @GwendolynSasse@oonuchtandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 2/n
#DataForUkraine we know 3 hrs sooner than media of potential warm crimes with this data on human rights abuses. The spikes mean a significant event has occurred. Our detailed data= when what & how & will be helpful to @DmytroKuleba@ICJ_org@ECHR_CEDH@hrw@HRF@UNHumanRights 2/7
#DataForUkraine we know 3 hrs sooner than the media can report of major internal displacement & displaced people fleeing on the move. Again, spikes mean a significant event of displacement has occurred. Our detailed data let’s us know where that is happening. 3/7
⚡️⚡️важлива інформація: Схема «#WarmScotsWelcome».
- Українці без названого спонсора тепер можуть вибрати «уряд Шотландії» і бути прийнятими на цій основі
– Уряд Шотландії також отримає відомості про шотландців, які звертаються до «#HomesForUkraine», щоб допомогти їм узгодити.