Thread by @Ride4Truth

Here's why i think #Beergate signals that the Tories are planning a General Election this year, and is the key part of their strategy for winning it. 🧵

1.

IMO the Tories' ideal scenario = Starmer is cleared/not fined. If this happens they can shout "unfair!" and "hypocrite!" forever. And they will.

However, if Starmer IS found to have breached regs, he WILL resign, but Johnson still won't. This will look awful for the Tories.

2.

We'll bitch and moan on Twitter, but ultimately only Tory MPs can force him out.

Most of us will loathe the double standard, but the Boris/Tory stalwarts, for whom Johnson's endless trangressions are priced in, will swallow it.

And now Starmer's gone, and Johnson remains.

3.

Tories know (and Lynton Crosby has advised) that even though now would be A BAD TIME for a General Election, the crises and tensions in the UK are only going to deepen and worsen over the next couple of years - so it still may be THE BEST time.

4.

And we know that Johnson/Tories are, for this reason, considering a snap GE this year, even though some of their plans to cheat aren't yet in place (new constituency boundaries, for example).

That tells us how worried they are about losing.

5.

Their approval ratings are rightly in tatters. Their overlapping fuckups and corruption have managed to piss off pretty much everyone in the country. So, what to do?

The most cynical thing possible. Can't raise your own profile? Destroy your opponent's.

6.

Yes, what would i do if i were a sneaky cynical Tory?

I'd engineer matters so that the LOTO is severely discredited or forced to resign, and then call a snap GE whilst the OPPO is in complete disarray.

That's what i think we're seeing in action.

7.

IMO we should prepare for a General Election THIS year - quite possibly not long after Durham Police's Starmer investigation concludes (reportedly in 4-6 weeks).

And at that point there may well be a new LOTO or at least a severely weakened one.

8.

So how will it play with voters when Johnson doesn't resign, even if Starmer does?

If BJ's up against a brand new LOTO he'll bank on ppl voting for the 👿 they know. And if Starmer stays, Tories will smear him so hard they create false equivalence. #allasbadaseachother

9.

I think this is the Tories' best chance of and window for winning a GE. Let's hope it's still not good enough, and let's do ALL we can to boot them out, as soon as we have the opportunity.

10:end