Thread by @OpenSquareCap

1/x This "feels" rt. This feels like an orderly sell-off, but will snowball a here b/c of margin req'ts & invstrs start pulling funds, forcing liquidazn. Anticipate daily moves 2 be a bit moar violent. Bounces likely to be faded as people add protection or exit #oil #EFT #OOTT

2/x 200 day MVA is sticky here, Nasdaq "wants" to go there, 10,700. Everyone looking at similar charts, another 10% to go would put Nas dwn ~40% YTD, '00 Internet bubble (QQQ still young, -65%) & '08 GFC, QQQ dwn ~45%

3/x rising inflation environment tho, so a bit different. More akin to early 70s right now, & charts look similar. No we're not TAs, but TA reps mrkt emotions & sell-offs start fundamentally, ends emotionally. Oil, inflationary assets, hard assets, E&Ps, mining cos. not spared

4/x We'll correlate to 1 here as managers need to sell to meet redemption & risk off. Hold, sell, hedge a portfolio/indiv/personal decision. Even stasis is a decision, just recog it all snowballs together, so look less at fundamentals for coming wks. It will come back to play tho

5/x Too much hope on fintwit right now, "what's a stock you'd hold for 5 yrs" types of questions = we're in fear phase, trying to reassure ourselves of whatever fundamentals we used to justify multiples on revenue for tech. 2000 repeat. We were there, have the t-shirts

6/x Same thing w/inflationary assets (fertilizer, uranium, NG, oil, hard materials) "but look at fundamentals"...no this is about financial market liquidity. It will blow over, but tech/high-growth needs to enter capitulation, then despair. Not there yet. You'll know when...

7/x Bear/shorts r feted & no one wants to hear abt anything tech. It'll happn, then all the insufferable "value" guys will wash, rinse, & repeat ad nauseam Buffett. We see the qtrly lttrs already. Get ready. We're all abt to take a ride (we've bn on it b4, 20 yrs ago). Buckle up