In GFC '08 we saw funding costs skyrocket as mrkt questioned true value of banks & assets. Post-GFC we turned private debt into gov't debt & now seeing int rates skyrocket & currencies devalue. Mrkt is essentially asking same ??, but this time directed at public institutions. There's no risk of loss for public debt if you have a digital printing press, the only issue is what rate of inflation you're willing to stomach. In a structurally short commodity environment, base level of inflation will be higher until that supply chain is resolved.

1/x This "feels" rt. This feels like an orderly sell-off, but will snowball a here b/c of margin req'ts & invstrs start pulling funds, forcing liquidazn. Anticipate daily moves 2 be a bit moar violent. Bounces likely to be faded as people add protection or exit #oil #EFT #OOTT 2/x 200 day MVA is sticky here, Nasdaq "wants" to go there, 10,700. Everyone looking at similar charts, another 10% to go would put Nas dwn ~40% YTD, '00 Internet bubble (QQQ still young, -65%) & '08 GFC, QQQ dwn ~45%

1/n There’s a wide gulf betwn invstrs 2day; betwn those who’ve tracked commodities & those who’ve nvr touched it. Rightly so b/c it’s lagged 4 yrs. Many came of age during a time of abundance, which was sherpa’d by cheap resources up a mountain of cheap debt. #oil #EFT #OOTT 2/n pondering on a Sunday of all the things we’re short on, minerals, rare earth minrls, energy, agricul. Debt pulls fwd demand & decades of cheap debt have numbed us to the possibility input prices of raw materials could climb exorbitantly hi. It can’t rt, it’ll reverse rt? No

1/3 Thread: US vaccinations on a tear. Assuming 80% of those over 65 want a vaccine (it's never going to be everyone), over 84% have already received 1 dose. For those over 18 yrs old, (assuming 70%), we're at 43%. We're effectively done in April. Happy Easter. #oil #OOTT 2/3 US really regaining confidence on travel...1.4M passengers through TSA screening on Thursday. We likely avg that on a 7 day basis next week (or close). Airlines starting to hit their stride (domestic travel in US). Global flight data also showing improvements.

It’s been three years since I started the fund, and I wanted to share a few thoughts on what I’ve learned along the way . . . thanks to @ArtkoCpaital for inspiring this! (Tweetstorm below) Had always wanted to start a fund, so committed to studying at the feet of masters every day. Read for hours before and after work (weekdays/weekends), treating it as a second job (first one being a lawyer).