Thread by @ramanmann1974

Thread

Will Govt have enough wheat for Public Distribution System (NFSA), Midday Meals & other regular welfare schemes including Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana ?

Will Govt have enough wheat for open market sales to flour mills ?

Will we see #wheat #atta prices spike ?

With #wheat opening stocks of 19 million ton (MT) & expected procurement of 18.5 MT, Govt will have 37.5 MT of wheat available for 2022-23. We take out the Min buffer Stock for March 31, which is 7.5 MT, it will leave 30 MT available for sale from government godowns this fiscal.

Govt requires 26 million ton (MT) to run Public Distribution System, Midday Meals & other regular welfare schemes, 5.4 MT for Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana scheme for April-Sept 2022; this alone comes to 31.4 MT, which is more than what the Govt will b holding this year

Meeting even this requirement will not be easy, leave alone supplying to millers and other bulk consumers to moderate open market prices during the lean months after October. In 2020-21 & 2021-22 open market sales to flour mills were 2.5 million ton (MT) and 7.1 MT, respectively.

So, the inference is that:-

~#wheat #atta prices will firm up in the coming days.

~the rhetoric of India feeding the world was pre-mature & childish.

~Govt failed to access the ground reality w.r.t the 15~20% loss in wheat yields due to the sudden temperature spike in March