Thread by @HenriVanhanen

As we approach Finland's formal decision on NATO, a recap thread of what has happened and why since Russia's attack in Ukraine. In short: in just 3 months, Finland has prepared itself to apply for NATO membership. A lot of change but also continuum.

1. Finnish NATO debate began to take rounds already as Russia's military build-up began late last year. This lead to an increased debate about joining NATO. In January a @hsfi poll indicated NATO support going up to 28% in favor and 42% against.

hs.fi/politiikka/art…

2. NATO polls were steady for decades, around 17-25% in favor and traditionally over 50% against. Thus, the shift in public opinion was not dramatic until February 24th. After that the trend changed from 50% and now the latest up to 76% in favor of NATO.

yle.fi/news/3-12437506

3. The shift has also been remarkable among Finnish parties. The only parties in favor of NATO membership had been Kokoomus (2006) and the Swedish Speaking People's Party (2016). During the past months all parties in the Parliament have formally indicated support for membership..

4. ..except the Social Democrats (SDP) who will announce their support formally after their party council on 14.5. It's noteworthy how Finland's NATO process is very much about consensus: the public opinion, parliamentary parties and the political leadership are all on board.

5. In the Parliament, we now have (10.5.) 133 MP's out of 200 in favor of NATO, with 11 against and the rest undecided. However, most of the undecided are from the SDP, most of whom will be in favor after their formal decision.

hs.fi/politiikka/art…

6. This means that we should expect about 175-185 majority in favor of NATO in the Finnish Parliament: enough to ratify the membership by 1/2 or 2/3 majority if needed.

7. Finland's road towards NATO is set. The President and the PM will announce their personal stance on NATO (in favor) on 12.5. The ’President & Ministerial Committee on Foreign and Security Policy’ will have a meeting to form the legal position to apply for NATO (14.5. or 15.5.)

8. This proposal will then be given to the Parliament in the form of a short white paper, probably on 16.5. A vote on NATO will follow likely on the 17.5. or 18.5. After the Parliament’s vote/support, the President/Government will send the formal letter to join NATO (Brussels).

9. So in just 3 months we are days away from Finland formally applying for NATO. Efficient and decisive yes, but also at the same time quite natural. As I've tried to explain to international media, colleagues and spectators, the piece were set for this change to take place.

10. Since early 2000's Finland has advocated a "NATO option" policy, meaning that Finland could seek to become NATO's member if the security environment would change decisively. This was supported by security/defence policy seeking to integrate Finland within western structures..

11. by formally abandoning neutrality in 1995 (read: Finland is not neutral!), joining the EU and NATO's Pfp in 1994 and through defence procurements from the US (Hornet fleet, JASSM, GLRMS, Stingers etc...). Finland is in fact more NATO interoperable than some NATO members.

12. It was also a political decision to remove all technical obstacles to NATO interoperability. Finland also participated in NATO operations in the Balkans for example and western coalition in the Middle East. This and all of the above has been conscious policy for decades.

13. After Russia's first war in Ukraine in 2014, Finland took its security and defence policy cooperation with NATO/Western partners to a new level: territorial exercises and dialogue regarding Northern European security. fiia.fi/julkaisu/finla…

14. In other words, Finland was as close to being a NATO member as possible, without formally being one. This was embedded in a informal status quo in Northern Europe between NATO, Russia and militarily non-aligned Finland and Sweden.

15. After Russia's attack this status quo was broken as Finland can no longer be certain that Russia would respect its sovereignty outside NATO. This led to a change in the political leadership in Finland about the necessity of NATO membership.

https://twitter.com/HenriVanhanen/status/1520290626784440322

16. Regardless of the above, this process was not clear in the early stages of the war. At first NATO's potential enlargement was seen in the West as possibly escalatory. Finland moved with caution and didn't have hasty reactions (e.g. the meeting between Biden and Niinistö 4.3.)

17. But as it started to seem that the war would last long and Russia became stretched, the mood shifted: the West wanted to impose also geostrategic costs for Russia. This is when NATO membership for Finland and Sweden became acute.

18. Finland didn't want to present a fait accompli to the West and had strategic patience, while at the same time preparing a possible membership through diplomatic interaction (meeting with governments and ministries).

19. To sum: while Finland's NATO path resembles a force of nature, it was not evident in he beginning. Still, if Finland wouldn't been a close NATO partner the past few decades, the pace and depth of the current development wouldn't have been possible.

20. Finland's NATO application process has been driven by:

1. A defence integration to the West/NATO since the end of the Cold War.

2. Russia's aggressive behavior and terror against Ukrainians.

3. The will of the Finnish people pushing the Parliament and the leadership.

21. And as a necessary reminder, Finland is not a country walking around with a hat in its hands. It's by definition a security contributor in Europe, not a security consumer.

warontherocks.com/2022/05/what-w…

22. Check the facts and numbers:

1) A reserve comprising of approximately 900,000 and wartime strength of 280,000 soldiers.

2) State of the art capabilities.

3) 75% willingness to defend our country in arms.

4) Spends over 2% of GDP on defence.

5) Technology and EDT leader.

23. In NATO, Finland would be contributor specifically for Northern European security with the Nordic-Baltic members but also with the UK. This combination of capabilities would significantly increase security in the region. Be on the lookout for "Fortress North" within NATO.

24. And the finale: under the current circumstance some theories expire rapidly, some not. Glad to see Finland moving when push came to shove.

https://twitter.com/henrivanhanen/status/1496819809320943624

@rmilneNordic @AnnwieAnna @morcos_pierre @IlvesToomas @NTenzer @patrikoksanen @RikeFranke @ulrichspeck @elisabethbraw @terischultz @ianbremmer @alexstubb @NATOSource @RachelRizzo @shashj @ZCarlander @MansRAD @FHeisbourg @AKendallTaylor @andrewmichta @IlvesToomas @markomihkelson

@ConStelz @HConleyGMF