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Logan Mohtashami

May 11 • 7 tweets • 2 min read

https://twitter.com/realMeetKevin/status/1524188159193452545

👍🏾
Exploding higher post-1996 would mean the seller will not be a natural buyer of a home. They will sell and rent or sell to be homeless if they're owners currently with a significant payment 😉

https://twitter.com/realMeetKevin/status/1524188159193452545

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To me, great promotional people, but if you don't forecast sales, it's useless.

The funny part I always love is people talk about a crash, and a lot of them say 10% declines after 7 failed crash calls, which means they're off by a lot from their original call

Then there are the 🦇 $#IT 2012 price declines people, who are so adorable with using 2012 charts as a reference. You know who they're on Twitter! 😎😉

The rule of thumb: Ask them about their housing forecast in the past. Even better economic forecast!

So far today, all I have gotten for many years.

" I don't forecast"

No $#*! smart! 🥳.

Knowing this would be the case, I made one last desperate plea to all my housing crash friends from 2012-to 2019.... before 2020 started. Don't go there, and this is why 😉As a teacher I failed you because you didn't listen
loganmohtashami.com/2019/07/07/hou…

and for that, I apologize that I couldn't convince that you were FOS!

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More from @LoganMohtashami

Logan Mohtashami

@LoganMohtashami

May 12

https://twitter.com/nixonrunning/status/1524588097530482690

Housing peaked in 2005
Sales started to fall in 2005-2008
Credit stress picked up in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008
2006 all 6 recession red flags were up
Then, after all that, the job loss recession happened in 2008, and credit was getting tighter concerning the 2002-2005 demand

https://twitter.com/nixonrunning/status/1524588097530482690

Also, prime-age population growth peaked in 2007, which still does not get enough economic love!
Thus, the 2006-2011 inventory increases and forced credit selling. Excess credit demand and the deleveraging process took many years to clean up.

🤔Just basic vision skills 2005-2008 credit stress was apparent!
2012-2022, hmmm, looks different to me.
You will see some increase in activity from the Covid19 lows; only 4-6 recession flags are up right now.
Also, credit loan profiles in America look 🔥🔥

Read 4 tweets

Logan Mohtashami

@LoganMohtashami

May 11

https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1524447329259909121

👇🏾The man who said Millenials don't buy homes is part of the anti central bank trolling crew that has been terrible for 11 years. He will never, ever forecast sales

https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1524447329259909121

Not demographics at all 😇🤟🏽😉

Economics is demographics and productivity; the rest is stamp collecting! However, demographics and mortgage rates are prime for housing. 2020-2024 will be different for many years because of #Demographics.
People buy homes, not an MBS. 😉

Read 7 tweets

Logan Mohtashami

@LoganMohtashami

May 11

Purchase application data update

+5% week to week (Back to back) positive weekly prints
-8% year over year
4 week MA - 12.5% year over year

I focus on the year-over-year data, and it's running better than I thought by 5.5% -9.5% with rates this high.

For some historical contexts with higher rates

2013/2014 we were trending negative 20% YoY

2018 data only had 3 mild negative prints year over year with 5% rates

This data line has been negative YoY since June 2021 due to high Covid19 comps, those comps ended in Feb 2022.

2022 will be the first actual negative purchase application data year since 2014. Typically when this data line is really moving, it's up or down 20%-30% year over year. We have seen this happen a lot this century. So I would say this is a much milder decline than I thought.

Read 4 tweets