Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 73-76. The past 100 hours has seen the Ukrainian military expand on the initial success of its limited counteroffensive around Kharkiv. Russia’s offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line has generally stalled, with limited successes in Popasna. #UkraineWar

2/ Weather Impact. Cloudy skies and frequent rainstorms will degrade air & artillery strikes as well as ground assaults. Increased rain and humidity will make off road movement difficult, while daily temps (15-22 C) will not be hot enough to dry out mud.

3/ Kharkiv OD. Ukraine’s limited counteroffensive of in the Kharkiv area continues to make solid progress. Russian forces have been pushed into a thin strip of territory averaging only 10km in depth. This OD is in danger of collapsing similarly to the Kyiv & Sumy fronts. #Kharkiv

4/ The Ukrainian General Staff estimates Russia only has 3x BTGs of very poor quality remaining in this area, however Ukrainian Intelligence reports Russia has at least 19x BTGs in the Belgorod area that may be preparing to counterattack toward Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1523979659544834057?s=20&t=3Xkq1i1g3T0-HxyTeN0Rug

5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces have managed to seize control of Popasna, Nyzhnie, and Velyka Kormyshuvakha. However, offensive efforts in other sectors of the Donbas remain stalled and ineffectual. Russian forces may be preparing to shift priority of axes. #Izium

6/ Ukrainian intelligence suggests Russian forces may be reconsidering their efforts along the Izium Axis in favor of a shift to the Lyman-Yampil area to exploit the limited success achieved there. Russian forces may be looking to isolate Slovyansk & Severdonetsk in two enclaves.

7/ Zaporizhzhia OD. There has been little activity in the Zaporizhzhia OD over the past several days. Russian forces are focusing artillery & air strikes in support of limited assaults on Orikhiv, Huilaipole, & Velyka Novosilka. No territory has changed hands recently.

8/ Azovstal. Mariupol still stands! Russian attacks resumed on 08 May, with intense air and artillery strikes supporting select ground assaults, gaining more ground to the north and east of Azovstal defensive positions. There are an estimated 1,000 Ukrainians defending Azovstal.

9/ Odesa-Kherson OD. There has been little activity in the Kherson-Odesa OD. Missile strikes increase against Odesa while tensions remain high along the Moldova border as Russia attempts to fix Ukrainian forces in this area from being redeployed to other critical fronts.

10/ Aerospace Assessment. VKS air sorties hold steady at 200-300 in a 24-hrs period. Russian forces are strengthening their air defense network in Kherson as well as in Izium / Siverskyi Donets Line to better protect critical targets like command posts & supply points.

11/ Battle Damage Assessment. Russian forces in the Kharkiv OD are combat ineffective & unable to halt the Ukrainian advances. In the Zaporizhzhia & Donbas ODs there is indications that Russian units are severally demoralized & not obeying orders.

https://twitter.com/NewsRemote/status/1523746561209085952?s=20&t=3Xkq1i1g3T0-HxyTeN0Rug

12/ Ukrainian TV, Day 73-76. The Kremlin holds steady to its current narrative during Russia’s 09 May Victory Day celebrations. False-flag activity in Moldova and along the NW Belarus border will likely not expand the war beyond Ukraine. Western aid continues to accelerate.

13/ Info War. Despite intense conjecture of Western analysts, Putin did not use the Victory Day celebrations to escalate the war through calls for a formal declaration of war, national mobilization, or immediate annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory. smh.com.au/national/why-p…

14/ Of these much-debated speculative moves only the last, an intent to directly annex occupied Ukrainian territory, may become a possibility soon. Russia is increasing control of occupied territory and may incorporate these into Russia.

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1524171176423088134?s=20&t=d7b4l9pLyDc3qSLObWF7bQ

15/ Information Advantage. The West has improved its messaging on how it is supporting Ukraine to defeat Russia, & committed to Ukraine’s war aims. This messaging is a signal to would be supporters that it is not in their best interest to back Russia.

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1523796583120265217?s=20&t=d7b4l9pLyDc3qSLObWF7bQ

16/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees total 8.08+ million with 6.28+ million in countries bordering Ukraine, another 1.8+ throughout Europe, and 7.5+ million internally displaced people throughout Ukraine (1.4+ million in eastern & 228K in southern Ukraine).

17/ From 06-07 May the UN & International Red Cross completed the evacuation of civilians from the Azovstal area. The evacuation was not without incident. Russian forces attacked evacuation convoys and targeted Ukrainian Soldiers aiding the effort.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1523069732886552576?s=20&t=d7b4l9pLyDc3qSLObWF7bQ

18/ Overall Assessment. Russian forces are facing a serious strategic dilemma, assume risk in the Kharkiv OD & reinforce efforts in the Donbas for potentially little immediate gain, or conduct a major counterattack toward Kharkiv to protect its operational base.

19/ Either option brings offensive operations in the Donbas to a general halt but losing their operational base would be catastrophic. Russia appears to already be shifting forces away from the Izium Axis toward Kharkiv, more forces will more than likely be diverted north.

20/ The coming days will likely see a Russian counterattack to stabilize the Kharkiv OD and protect access to it operational base in Belgorod. If not, the Kharkiv OD will likely collapse, and with it likely all of Russia’s operational momentum and recent success in the Donbas.

22/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of OSINT sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.

23/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements. END