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Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
@JominiW
May 11, 2022 • 22 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 73-76. The past 100 hours has seen the Ukrainian military expand on the initial success of its limited counteroffensive around Kharkiv. Russia’s offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line has generally stalled, with limited successes in Popasna. #UkraineWar Image
2/ Weather Impact. Cloudy skies and frequent rainstorms will degrade air & artillery strikes as well as ground assaults. Increased rain and humidity will make off road movement difficult, while daily temps (15-22 C) will not be hot enough to dry out mud. Image
3/ Kharkiv OD. Ukraine’s limited counteroffensive of in the Kharkiv area continues to make solid progress. Russian forces have been pushed into a thin strip of territory averaging only 10km in depth. This OD is in danger of collapsing similarly to the Kyiv & Sumy fronts. #Kharkiv Image
4/ The Ukrainian General Staff estimates Russia only has 3x BTGs of very poor quality remaining in this area, however Ukrainian Intelligence reports Russia has at least 19x BTGs in the Belgorod area that may be preparing to counterattack toward Kharkiv.
5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces have managed to seize control of Popasna, Nyzhnie, and Velyka Kormyshuvakha. However, offensive efforts in other sectors of the Donbas remain stalled and ineffectual. Russian forces may be preparing to shift priority of axes. #Izium Image
6/ Ukrainian intelligence suggests Russian forces may be reconsidering their efforts along the Izium Axis in favor of a shift to the Lyman-Yampil area to exploit the limited success achieved there. Russian forces may be looking to isolate Slovyansk & Severdonetsk in two enclaves.
7/ Zaporizhzhia OD. There has been little activity in the Zaporizhzhia OD over the past several days. Russian forces are focusing artillery & air strikes in support of limited assaults on Orikhiv, Huilaipole, & Velyka Novosilka. No territory has changed hands recently. Image
8/ Azovstal. Mariupol still stands! Russian attacks resumed on 08 May, with intense air and artillery strikes supporting select ground assaults, gaining more ground to the north and east of Azovstal defensive positions. There are an estimated 1,000 Ukrainians defending Azovstal. Image
9/ Odesa-Kherson OD. There has been little activity in the Kherson-Odesa OD. Missile strikes increase against Odesa while tensions remain high along the Moldova border as Russia attempts to fix Ukrainian forces in this area from being redeployed to other critical fronts. Image
10/ Aerospace Assessment. VKS air sorties hold steady at 200-300 in a 24-hrs period. Russian forces are strengthening their air defense network in Kherson as well as in Izium / Siverskyi Donets Line to better protect critical targets like command posts & supply points.
11/ Battle Damage Assessment. Russian forces in the Kharkiv OD are combat ineffective & unable to halt the Ukrainian advances. In the Zaporizhzhia & Donbas ODs there is indications that Russian units are severally demoralized & not obeying orders.
12/ Ukrainian TV, Day 73-76. The Kremlin holds steady to its current narrative during Russia’s 09 May Victory Day celebrations. False-flag activity in Moldova and along the NW Belarus border will likely not expand the war beyond Ukraine. Western aid continues to accelerate. Image
13/ Info War. Despite intense conjecture of Western analysts, Putin did not use the Victory Day celebrations to escalate the war through calls for a formal declaration of war, national mobilization, or immediate annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory. smh.com.au/national/why-p…
14/ Of these much-debated speculative moves only the last, an intent to directly annex occupied Ukrainian territory, may become a possibility soon. Russia is increasing control of occupied territory and may incorporate these into Russia.
15/ Information Advantage. The West has improved its messaging on how it is supporting Ukraine to defeat Russia, & committed to Ukraine’s war aims. This messaging is a signal to would be supporters that it is not in their best interest to back Russia.
16/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees total 8.08+ million with 6.28+ million in countries bordering Ukraine, another 1.8+ throughout Europe, and 7.5+ million internally displaced people throughout Ukraine (1.4+ million in eastern & 228K in southern Ukraine).
17/ From 06-07 May the UN & International Red Cross completed the evacuation of civilians from the Azovstal area. The evacuation was not without incident. Russian forces attacked evacuation convoys and targeted Ukrainian Soldiers aiding the effort.
18/ Overall Assessment. Russian forces are facing a serious strategic dilemma, assume risk in the Kharkiv OD & reinforce efforts in the Donbas for potentially little immediate gain, or conduct a major counterattack toward Kharkiv to protect its operational base.
19/ Either option brings offensive operations in the Donbas to a general halt but losing their operational base would be catastrophic. Russia appears to already be shifting forces away from the Izium Axis toward Kharkiv, more forces will more than likely be diverted north.
20/ The coming days will likely see a Russian counterattack to stabilize the Kharkiv OD and protect access to it operational base in Belgorod. If not, the Kharkiv OD will likely collapse, and with it likely all of Russia’s operational momentum and recent success in the Donbas.
22/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of OSINT sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
23/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements. END

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More from @JominiW

Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 21
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1121: March 17-18, 2025, was marked by a significant escalation in ground and air operations across multiple fronts. In the north, Ukrainian forces have largely withdrawn from the Kursk region while simultaneously launching a surprise offensive in Russia's Belgorod Oblast.

The Donbas Strategic Direction, particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk Fronts, remains heavily contested, with the largest concentration of Russian and Ukrainian forces. In the Southern Strategic Direction, the Russian buildup of forces, which started in December 2024, has now transitioned into a renewed offensive push to the west of Orikhiv. This push is likely to isolate the city and force a Ukrainian withdrawal to the Stepnohirsk-Novopavlivka line.

Air operations have intensified, with Ukraine launching a major drone attack on Russia's Engels airbase, involving 54 drones, while Russia retaliated with massive drone and missile strikes across Ukrainian cities. The naval theater remains relatively quiet.

Diplomatically, discussions around a temporary ceasefire focusing on energy and infrastructure targets are ongoing without concrete resolutions. The conflict continues to have significant economic impacts, exacerbating inflationary pressures and trade disruptions. The situation remains highly dynamic and volatile, with both sides engaged in intense combat operations and strategic maneuvers across multiple regions. #UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #Sudzha #Belgorod #ZaporizhzhiaImage
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Direction Orikhiv: From February 25 to March 20, 2025, intense combat operations took place in Operational Direction Orikhiv. Russian forces made gradual gains along the Lobkove-Stepove-Mali Shcherbaky line at a significant cost in personnel and equipment. However, Ukrainian troops demonstrated resilience and tactical effectiveness in their defense of the region, successfully thwarting many Russian advances.Image
Read 8 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 18
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1119: The period of March 17-18, 2025, was marked by significant Russian territorial gains, particularly in Kursk Oblast. These gains were balanced by continued Ukrainian resistance and offensive capabilities. The high casualty rates and extensive infrastructure damage underscored the war’s continued intensity.

The partial ceasefire agreement on energy infrastructure attacks represents a notable diplomatic development, though it falls short of a comprehensive resolution. The strategic landscape remains complex, with both sides maneuvering for military advantage while engaging in high-stakes diplomatic negotiations that will shape the conflict's future and the broader geopolitical environment.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #Sudzha #toretsk #ZaporizhzhiaImage
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Toretsk-Nui York Area of Operations: OTU Luhansk demonstrated superior effectiveness in its initial assault to retake Toretsk, which began on February 25. This is evidenced by the swift and brutal attack led by elite Ukrainian units, particularly the Lyut brigade, which overran the exhausted Russian defenders, setting the tone for the entire operation.

While Russian forces have implemented defensive measures and counter-strikes, they have struggled to match the effectiveness of the Ukrainian operations. The effectiveness of the Ukrainian counterattack puts pressure on Russian military leadership. The need to defend Toretsk while maintaining operations elsewhere may force a reevaluation of Russian military objectives and resource allocation.Image
Read 10 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 14
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1114: Fierce combat persisted across the Donbas Strategic Direction, especially north of Chasiv Yar and in the Kostiantynopil regions. Russian troops made attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defensive positions using heavy artillery and infantry assaults but encountered strong resistance, leading to limited territorial advances.

In the Southern Strategic Direction, Ukrainian forces executed precise strikes on Russian ammunition depots in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which disrupted supply lines and hampered Russian artillery effectiveness.

The Northern Strategic Direction saw an uptick in cross-border shelling from Russian forces into Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, which led Ukraine to bolster its defensive setups in these areas.

Concurrently, Russian missile and drone attacks on critical Ukrainian infrastructure continued, with Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepting most incoming threats; however, there was some minor damage to energy facilities in Kyiv and Dnipro.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #SudzhaImage
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Direction Kursk: In the past two and a half weeks, OUV Kursk has effectively utilized its operational advantages over recent months to defeat OTU Siversk in the Kursk Oblast. While it is nearly certain OTU Siversk will shift to a defensive posture in Sumy Oblast, it’s uncertain how much force structure OUV Kursk will retain for future operations.Image
Read 11 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Mar 12
1/ A breakthrough or a deadlock? The Jeddah agreement, reached on March 11, 2025, between U.S. and Ukrainian officials, marks a significant development in efforts to address the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This comprehensive agreement includes a cease-fire proposal and economic terms, with mixed reactions from Russia. As the world watches, all eyes are on Moscow's response. Will this lead to peace or another impasse? Is this the road to Minsk III? Here are the key details:
#UkraineWar #Ceasefire #Geopolitics

x.com/Mylovanov/stat…
2/ Cease-Fire Proposal
The centerpiece of the Jeddah agreement is a U.S.-proposed 30-day cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia. The main aspects of this cease-fire include:

1. Duration: An immediate, interim period of 30 days that can be extended by mutual agreement.
2. Scope: The ceasefire encompasses the entire front line of the conflict, including aerial and naval operations.
3. Comprehensive coverage: It encompasses all forms of combat, including missile, drone, and bomb attacks.
4. Conditional implementation: The cease-fire depends on Russia's acceptance and simultaneous implementation.

x.com/ChrisO_wiki/st…
3/ Humanitarian Efforts
As part of the cease-fire agreement, several humanitarian initiatives are proposed:

1. Exchange of prisoners of war.
2. Release of civilian detainees.
3. Return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children. Image
Read 8 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 25
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1096): February 2025 saw intensifying military operations throughout the Ukrainian TVD, with both sides focusing on strategic air campaigns and continued Russian offensive on multiple fronts. Russia continued its missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, targeting energy grids and transportation hubs to disrupt military logistics and civilian morale. Meanwhile, Ukraine escalated its use of long-range drones and precision missile strikes, hitting Russian oil refineries and logistical hubs deep in Russian territory, including key sites in Belgorod and Kursk.

On the political front, Ukraine secured additional Western military aid, including French Mirage 2000 fighter jets, while NATO reaffirmed its support amidst growing concerns about potential escalation. Domestically, Russia faced increasing discontent among its population due to Ukrainian strikes on its territory, while sanctions-induced economic stagnation and logistical strain further challenged its war effort.

Economically, Ukraine struggled with energy shortages caused by continued Russian strikes, but international financial aid and grain export corridors through the Black Sea provided a lifeline. The conflict remains entrenched, with both nations locked in a war of attrition, as neither side achieved decisive breakthroughs on the battlefield or in negotiations. #UkraineWar #Donbass #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #siverekImage
2/ Fourth Year of the War Begins: Today marks a solemn day for Ukraine and the international community. Three years have passed since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine commenced. Three years later, much has changed, but one constant that has remained is the resolve of the Ukrainian people to defy Russian aggression and the conviction of those in the West willing to oppose it. Ukraine has shown the world what Patriots are made of. #SlavaUkraini
x.com/ZelenskyyUa/st…
3/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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Read 25 tweets
Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West Profile picture
Feb 12
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1083: Today's DTU focuses on actions along the Donetsk Front from 08-11 February, 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #ChasivYar #Toretsk #Pokrovsk #NovyKomar #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini Image
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics. Image
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3/ Operational Overview: The Donetsk Oblast serves as the critical front for the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation (SVRF). The primary focus of OUGRV-Ukraine operations is the capture of southern Donetsk Oblast, which will facilitate advances into the less fortified areas of western and central Donetsk.

In the OSV Yug Area of Responsibility, the 3d Guards Combined Arms Army has made minor advancements in the Siversk region. In the Chasiv Yar area, VDV and Spetsnaz units have achieved significant tactical control over the northern and central sections of the town. The 41st Guards Combined Arms Army has established control over most of Toretsk. Yet, Ukrainian forces continue to resist in the northern and northwest outskirts of the city. While OSVs Tsentr and Vostok are making daily advancements in southern Donetsk, OUV Donetsk is successfully conducting delaying operations despite intense pressure.Image
Read 14 tweets

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