Logan Mohtashami Profile picture
May 11 β€’ 7 tweets β€’ 3 min read
πŸ‘‡πŸΎThe man who said Millenials don't buy homes is part of the anti central bank trolling crew that has been terrible for 11 years. He will never, ever forecast sales
Not demographics at all πŸ˜‡πŸ€ŸπŸ½πŸ˜‰
Economics is demographics and productivity; the rest is stamp collecting! However, demographics and mortgage rates are prime for housing. 2020-2024 will be different for many years because of #Demographics.
People buy homes, not an MBS. πŸ˜‰
Even with this last desperate plea in 2019, don't go there with the housing bubble crash, you were wrong from 2012-to 2019 for a reason. It didn't matter, same people, same lines, Ya Ya Ya loganmohtashami.com/2019/07/07/hou…
They thought Covid19 was their savior, πŸ€¨πŸ˜‰loganmohtashami.com/2020/08/26/dem…
Then in 2021, Forbearance was going to save them, when others were like 🀨
Now, price growth is way too much! The market is savagely unhealthy. However, they get no claim to this housing market after the last 11 years. πŸ’ͺ🏾
You have lost your privilege to talk about housing: Housing Bubble Boys 2.0 & Forbearance Crash Bros. #RIP

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More from @LoganMohtashami

May 12
Housing peaked in 2005
Sales started to fall in 2005-2008
Credit stress picked up in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008
2006 all 6 recession red flags were up
Then, after all that, the job loss recession happened in 2008, and credit was getting tighter concerning the 2002-2005 demand Image
Also, prime-age population growth peaked in 2007, which still does not get enough economic love!
Thus, the 2006-2011 inventory increases and forced credit selling. Excess credit demand and the deleveraging process took many years to clean up. Image
πŸ€”Just basic vision skills 2005-2008 credit stress was apparent!
2012-2022, hmmm, looks different to me.
You will see some increase in activity from the Covid19 lows; only 4-6 recession flags are up right now.
Also, credit loan profiles in America look πŸ”₯πŸ”₯ Image
Read 4 tweets
May 11
Purchase application data update

+5% week to week (Back to back) positive weekly prints
-8% year over year
4 week MA - 12.5% year over year

I focus on the year-over-year data, and it's running better than I thought by 5.5% -9.5% with rates this high. Image
For some historical contexts with higher rates

2013/2014 we were trending negative 20% YoY

2018 data only had 3 mild negative prints year over year with 5% rates

This data line has been negative YoY since June 2021 due to high Covid19 comps, those comps ended in Feb 2022. Image
2022 will be the first actual negative purchase application data year since 2014. Typically when this data line is really moving, it's up or down 20%-30% year over year. We have seen this happen a lot this century. So I would say this is a much milder decline than I thought.
Read 4 tweets
May 11
Why do we have so many housing crash addicts with fake accounts from Dallas πŸ˜πŸ˜‰
I know the answer but saving it for another day πŸ˜‡
Please don’t let me stop you after 11 years, one day you will be right πŸ’ͺ🏽πŸ₯³
Read 4 tweets
May 11
πŸ‘πŸΎ
Exploding higher post-1996 would mean the seller will not be a natural buyer of a home. They will sell and rent or sell to be homeless if they're owners currently with a significant payment πŸ˜‰
Tik Tok
Twitter
Clubhouse
Youtube
Reddit
To me, great promotional people, but if you don't forecast sales, it's useless.
The funny part I always love is people talk about a crash, and a lot of them say 10% declines after 7 failed crash calls, which means they're off by a lot from their original call
Read 7 tweets
May 10
Households cash flow πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ“ˆ
Credit stress πŸ˜΄πŸ’€
Looks good here! πŸ’ͺ🏽
Read 7 tweets

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