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May 12 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
#Ukraine_EU: A new controversy is emerging around EU membership. No leader of the EU member states questions Ukraine's well-deserved candidate status (to be confirmed in June). However, Macron, von der Leyen and Baerbock said that⤵️
after Ukraine receives candidate status, a long (perhaps shorter than we think, depending on progress in Ukraine) process of reforms (in parallel with reconstruction) will begin on the way to full EU membership. It's worth recalling that Russia's first aggression in 2014 came⤵️
as a result of pro-EU (signing of the Association Agreement) and anti-Yanukovych/anti-corruption protests. The second aggression in 2022 by the official Kremlin discourse was linked, among other things, to Ukraine's orientation towards NATO (a matter of sovereign choice!).⤵️
Ukraine is defending itself from an anti-Western and anti-liberal regime, also imperialist and autocratic/Russia's current political elites. It's undeniable that Ukraine has strong pro-Western aspirations, which at the moment can only be translated through EU membership⤵️
(now as a perspective, sooner or later through a full membership, joining NATO not probable soon). This war against Russian aggression is also about the Ukrainian identity that the current Russian elites refuse to recognize as legitimate.⤵️
So, Ukraine fights for its survival as nation-based state, as well as for its pro-Western aspirations.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 11
#Ukraine: The great conversation about Ukraine's post-war reparation has begun. The EU wants to link reconstruction with a deep reform process. This means conditionality. Clearly, the money will not be poured out unaccountably and the central authority will play a key role.⤵️
One of the areas that Ursula von der Leyen first mentioned recently was the fight against the oligarchs (setting the rules, enforcing them and disciplining the oligarchs who don’t act by law). She is right because some oligarchs (such as Akhmetov and others) are already⤵️
staring at the imaginary amount of 600 billion dollars, contemplating how they could benefit from it. The war is not over yet, but the principle of the future of Ukraine's reconstruction must be to consider reforms and partial conditionality (as a minimum and for the⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 11
#Russia_Sanctions: Russian oligarchs and economic elites are moving from EU states to Turkey (along with the United Arab Emirates or the Maldives). Turkey offers two incentives: 1) Ankara has not joined the sanctions and maintains its neutrality (being cautious about⤵️
sanctions evasion); 2) Rich Russians can obtain Turkish citizenship ("golden visa regime") in exchange for investments of at least $250k (to be increased to $400k in real estate or $500k in government bonds, companies etc.). The Turkish passport does not allow travel to ⤵️
the EU/Schengen zone, but it is still better than being stuck in the Russian zone during uncertain times of sanctions. The influx of new Russian investors is buying luxury apartments, but also important real estate generators of profits, such as hotels, etc.
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 10
#Ukraine: LNR separatists claim they took control of the entire oblast, with military support from Russian forces. Now, most likely, they will stop and consolidate the territorial occupation. Seemingly, the air attacks on Kharkiv and other parts of Ukraine could continue ⤵️ Image
until Russia manages the security of the occupied territories in southeastern Ukraine from Mariupol to Zaporozhzhie and Kherson. The next immediate goal is to effectively move the line of contact with the Ukrainian forced army to Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv.
Although these days Odessa has again been the target of airstrikes, Russian aggression will not advance until it ensures the stabilization of the already occupied territories.
Read 7 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 10
#Russia_Sanctions: The EU made two concessions (compromises) to EU member states regarding the sixth sanctions package on Russia: 1) Hungary (and some others) will have a longer transition period from phasing out Russian oil imports; 2) In the case of Greece, Brussels admitted⤵️
the possibility of using EU ships to export Russian oil by foreign companies owning European vessels (Greek ones) to other third countries (transport service). Overcoming these two obstacles will allow the adoption of the new sanctions package at the end of this week. ⤵️
Meanwhile, the recent G7 statement has revealed in many places what the new scope of the sanctions will be (new banks disconnected from SWIFT; individual sanctions on top managers of state-owned banks; ban on propaganda TV channels - Channel One, Russia 1 and NTV, etc.).
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 9
#Ukraine: In an interview, the temporary head of the occupied Kherson region, Vladimir Salydo, revealed what the future plans are: 1) Under Russian occupation, Kherson will remain an oblast, however, it may join a future Russian federal region ⤵️
together with LNR, DNR, Zaporozhzhye and Crimea. This means that Kherson will not be annexed to Crimea. The absorption of the Ukrainian territories recently occupied by Russia is already being discussed; 2) The Russian-controlled military-administrative apparatus in Kherson ⤵️
acknowledges that no damage has been inflicted on the physical and economic infrastructure and that the economy is slowly resuming activity. However, up to 80% of local administration specialists, including the entire police force, prosecutors, judicial and other specialists, ⤵️
Read 7 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 9
#Russia_China: Trade turnover in January-April increased by 25.9% year-on-year, reaching 51.09 billion dollars. Chinese exports reached 20.24 billion dollars or 11.3% more in four months. Imports of Russian goods and services increased by 37.8%, to 30.85 billion dollars.⤵️
The nominal value of exported Russian products is 2.7 times higher than Chinese imports compared to the 2021 trade. Russia wants to expand the range of raw materials exported to China as it is forced to decouple from the Western market. ⤵️
The positive trade balance in favor of Russia reached 10.6 billion dollars. Western sanctions seem to speed up bilateral trade and increase the dependence of Russia on the developments of the Chinese economy ⤵️
Read 4 tweets

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