Mark Galeotti Profile picture
May 12 11 tweets 3 min read
"The Ukrainian army is an amazing and very strong combination of a Russian soldier, a fascist officer and an American general"
The convolutions hardline Russian commentators must go through to explain their failures in #UkraineRussianWar. A short thread 1/
kp.ru/daily/27391/45…
It is, of course, quite a challenge how to pivot from "we will be welcomed" to "we are being hammered" but Russia's propagandists are doing their best. Markov's article, linked in the first tweet, is a better example than most 2/
1st, the need to share the blame: "The Ukrainian army turned out to be much stronger than it was supposed, looking from Russia, and much stronger than it was seen by Western analysts" - ie, we were no more wrong than anyone else 3/
2nd, an attempt, in effect, to claim the credit (this is quite ingenious): "The rank and file are Russian people; the language of the UKR army is RU. The RU soldier has been considered one of the strongest in the world for centuries." 4/
In other words, the only reason Russians are not winning is that they are being resisted by, if they but knew it, Russians! But why are they fighting? 5/
It's because they are controlled by a "nazified" "officer corps ...[that] is very ideological, motivated, ready to die and kill others. This combination of Russian soldier and fascist officer is successfully managed by American generals" 6/
3rd. US generals? Of course - this is just a proxy war with NATO, run "not only by advisers from the Pentagon, but also UKR generals trained over the years by the Americans. They are loyal to the US and Britain, and most have both American and British passports" (News to me) 7/
They also "receives strong support from the electronic intelligence of the strongest military powers - the United States and Britain" (It's always nice for the UK to get co-star billing in these lurid nationalist dramas). The point is that RU failures are because of NATO 8/
So it's an excuse and also a pretext for any further escalation to wartime footing and mobilisation: because RU is not just losing against a country with less than 1/3rd its pop, but the whole Western alliance 9/
So the UKR army "is, in fact, the external centre's occupying army, using civilians as hostages. But ...at the moment the population of Ukraine is not able to express its political will, being under the pressure of terror and propaganda." Hence this can still be spun as... 10/
...A war of 'liberation' - but also liberating Ukrainians from the false consciousness of not realising that they are being repressed. All nonsense, of course, but for me the best encapsulation of the emerging Kremlin line and the bizarre contortions it is having to make. 11/end

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More from @MarkGaleotti

May 5
Let us set aside the rumours that Patrushev is going to rule Russia in Putin's stead while he has a cancer operation. Why? A short thread 1/
independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
a. Provenance. The 'General SVR' Telegram channel is not something to take seriously. It is a source of some of the most ludicrous gossip, with the dubious claim that it comes from a general of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service 2/
b. Legality. According to he constitution if the president is unable to carry out his duties - the PM, currently Mishustin, steps in as interim. But this is for long-term incapacitation, not brief periods of indisposition. There is no provision for any transfer of power then 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 2
We have stories like this claiming Moscow plans to take Moldova and then drive a land bridge to Crimea. Am I missing something? This seems v implausible A short thread 1/
thetimes.co.uk/article/russia…
Sure, Moscow could stir up trouble in Chisinau and generally create a pretext for action, if it wanted to, but then? Moldova's forces are v small but so are Transnistria's, and the maybe 1500 Russian troops are by no means all operational 2/
Nor could they be rearmed, resupplied or reinforced. To fly to Moldova, Russian planes would have to cross Ukrainian airspace. Would they really risk Il-76s full of troops when Kyiv has demonstrated the capacity to continue to hit Russian planes? 3/
Read 5 tweets
Apr 28
I can understand the moral case for committing to push Russia out of all Ukraine, implying also Crimea, but do have concerns. A 🧵1/ bbc.co.uk/news/uk-612516…
Unity. The West’s strength has been its (frankly unexpected) unity. While there is value in opening up the debate on war aims, going for what Johnson called the “maximalist” option is likely to open up divisions 2/
To this end, I hope this is not just Truss grandstanding but an expression of at least the UK govt view, if not a Western consensus reached behind the scenes. But I am sceptical 3/
Read 7 tweets
Apr 27
Nikolai Patrushev, hawk’s hawk and a man I described as ‘the most dangerous man in Russia’ (buzzsprout.com/1026985/4169738) has given an interview to govt newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta. A lengthy thread 1/
rg.ru/2022/04/26/pat…
On one level, it’s the kind of talking points we’ve heard before, just with some added vitriol and hyperbole, but some lines are worth considering for their implications
(And besides, I read this bilious tract so you don't have to)
2/
Why is this a war not with Ukraine but the West? Because of US ambitions of global hegemony, which means it seeks “to force Russia to give up its sovereignty, self-consciousness, culture, independent foreign and domestic policy.” In this context this is a proxy war… 3/
Read 25 tweets
Apr 6
So Zhirinovsky is dead. I can genuinely not think of a single positive things to say about him. It is not just that he was a ghastly person who espoused ghastly views, he was also one of the architects of Russia's debauched pseudo-democracy 1/
He used his depressingly undeniable skills in demagoguery and spin to make ultra-nationalism not so much cool but comical – a dangerous and divisive narrative that combined victimhood and entitled assertiveness looked less threatening than it was thanks to him 2/
He wholeheartedly embraced the role of fake opposition and in the process dragged the centre of gravity within the ‘systemic opposition’ even closer to the ‘system.’ Whenever the Communists looked as if they might get, well, bolshy, the Kremlin could unleash Zhirik 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 4
According to Kyiv, three assassination attempts on President #Zelensky have been foiled in the past week thanks to leaks from within #Russia’s FSB. A thread. 1/
thetimes.co.uk/article/zelens…
Although I take the suggestions that Russia has lengthy ‘execution lists’ drawn up with some scepticism (arrest lists, though, go without saying), it is not surprising if the Kremlin wants to kill Ze 2/
He has, after all, risen to the challenge of war leadership admirably, and is not just an inspirational focus for Ukrainians, but a powerful symbol in the West. The W may not give him all he wants, but they feel guilty about it, and prob give more than they otherwise... 3/
Read 13 tweets

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