Thread by @BeGriffis

Massive #NLD today.

Wanted to see if Harry Kane performs any differently against Arsenal in the Premier League than against other teams...

Essentially, no 😂 Using a simulation of a normal distribution, his G-xG is pretty similar.

T-test also insignificant @ .05

#coys #TOTARS

This basically simulates 100,000 matches of each, using his mean G-xG/90 & standard deviation.

Only looks at PL games where he played at least 45 minutes.

Performed a Monte Carlo simulation in R & also a quick unequal variance t-test in Excel which was non-significant at 95%

Note that the eye test seems to show he performs worse, on average, in the NLD. Yes, his mean is lower (ex: the simulated mean = -.076, but not vs Arsenal = .105).

But given the sample sizes (9 NLDs, over 140 non-NLD, only data since start of 17/18), t-test was not significant

Also this was for fun really, with such a small sample size of NLDs with public xG data (courtesy of amazing @StatsBomb), it's hard to draw major conclusions.

TL;DR

I had a question: was Kane's G-xG different in NLDs than non-NLDs?

The answer based on this data: Nah mate.