1/ As we observe this new #BA2 fueled wave pick up real steam, I have my doubts about the signal value of wastewater as an early indicator for rising transmission rates compared to testing.
Some data points below from Silicon Valley. 🧵
Some data points below from Silicon Valley. 🧵
2/ In Santa Clara county in California, COVID cases are now well past the height of the Delta surge and will likely approach the peak of the first Omicron wave.
paloaltoonline.com/news/2022/05/1…
paloaltoonline.com/news/2022/05/1…
3/ Based on wastewater sampling in the area, you might have “called” the rise in late April/early May but there are some puzzling head fakes of plateaus and declines in the last week.
The data is far too noisy to understand what is happening real-time or to make predictions.
The data is far too noisy to understand what is happening real-time or to make predictions.
4/ Meanwhile, PCR test positivity in Silicon Valley has been increasing steadily since late March, and by early April it was pretty obvious from the rise in positivity that there was another wave underway.
5/ Our clinics at @CarbonHealth in the Bay Area are as busy as they have been since the last omicron surge with COVID+ patients seeking care, so it doesn't seem like we are in a taper/decline as the wastewater data seems to suggest.
6/ TL/DR: testing still matters
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
