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May 13 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
Big matches coming up in #LaLigaSmartBank today & tomorrow!

4 points between 1st & 3rd (@UDAlmeria_Eng , @SDEibar & @realvalladolidE ), 3 matches to go! Top 2 automatically promoted.

These images show simulated result probabilities & each match's scoreline probabilities
#RealSociedadBAlmería

@U_D_Almeria are currently in 1st & a win here would guarantee promotion!

Most likely result is 0-1 to Almería.

Chances of Almería scoring at least 1: 79%
Chances of Real Sociedad B scoring at least 1: 55%

Chances of both teams scoring at least 1: 44%
#RealValladolidPonferradina

@realvalladolid sit 2 points off 2nd, 4 off 1st. A win here & they jump Eibar even if just for 2 hours before their kick off. Putting on the pressure would be important.

However, Ponferradina need a win, sitting 1 pt away from promotion playoffs now
#LeganésEibar

@SDEibar are just 2 points ahead of Real Valladolid, and also 5 ahead of 4th-place Tenerife.

They're in control of their destiny, though, so a strong performance in the final 3 matches, starting with this one, and they're up.

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More from @BeGriffis

Ben Griffis Profile picture
May 14
I've been researching a number of soccer data sites recently to see what their data use/scraping policies are.

Wanted to share what I've found so far in this thread.

A critical factor to consider when using third party (i.e. not your own created dataset) is use ethics & terms
.@fbref, Starting w/ probably the biggest one.

Scraping:

FBRef allows you to scrape, but can block you if you send more than 1 request every 3 seconds.

You will be blocked for about half a day... Enough time to add some code to 🆙 request time 😉
sports-reference.com/bot-traffic.ht…
Now, even more vital, @fbref data use policy

CITE!!!! This goes for all data sources

Also, you cannot use FBRef data to make a web tool for people. That's a competing product and not allowed.

You can make vizzes obv, but not something that's like FBRef
sports-reference.com/data_use.html
Read 14 tweets
Ben Griffis Profile picture
May 13
I have some free time this afternoon, so I think I'll live tweet some of my tactics thoughts on the first leg of Luton Town - Huddersfield

I'll just keep adding tweets to this thread each time I've got something 👍

#LUTHUD | #COYH | #HTAFC Image
Should be 3-5-2 vs 3-5-2, will be an interesting one.

The noise coming through my headphones is nuts. Something special about low capacity stadiums
Think we know how high/low Luton's defense normally sits hahaha

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC Image
Read 23 tweets
Ben Griffis Profile picture
May 12
Massive #NLD today.

Wanted to see if Harry Kane performs any differently against Arsenal in the Premier League than against other teams...

Essentially, no 😂 Using a simulation of a normal distribution, his G-xG is pretty similar.

T-test also insignificant @ .05

#coys #TOTARS Image
This basically simulates 100,000 matches of each, using his mean G-xG/90 & standard deviation.

Only looks at PL games where he played at least 45 minutes.

Performed a Monte Carlo simulation in R & also a quick unequal variance t-test in Excel which was non-significant at 95%
Note that the eye test seems to show he performs worse, on average, in the NLD. Yes, his mean is lower (ex: the simulated mean = -.076, but not vs Arsenal = .105).

But given the sample sizes (9 NLDs, over 140 non-NLD, only data since start of 17/18), t-test was not significant
Read 4 tweets

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