Thread by @credistick

If the endgame for @yugalabs is essentially a #Web3 videogame, it seems like a good opportunity to examine the closest #Web2 equivalent.

Let's look at @Bungie, who were acquired at a $3.6B valuation in February. Not far off Yuga's $4B valuation from their raise in March.

🧵

https://twitter.com/OthersideMeta/status/1524550010058194945

Bungie are responsible for building a few monster IPs. The most well known is @Halo, established in 2001 and owned until 2010.

Halo: Reach, their last title in the series - and not even their best seller, sold roughly 10 million units.

But it's not Halo I'm interested in.

Their more recent IP, @DestinyTheGame, is a better example - as a 'virtual world' online role-playing game.

Destiny 1 had ~30 million account holders. Destiny 2 has ~38 million, and the annual revenue from that title alone is estimated at $100-500M.

progameguides.com/destiny/how-mu….

Yuga Labs has:

BAYC: 10,000
MAYC: 20,000
BAKC: 10,000
Otherland: 200,000

That's a theoretical maximum of 240 thousand account holders (people who own #NFTs; some may own multiple) producing a gross revenue of $138M in 2021.

privatebankerinternational.com/news/yuga-labs….

You have to be incredibly bullish about #Web3 to believe that @yugalabs has earned a higher valuation than @Bungie - based on those numbers.

Or that Yuga is capable of doing something, thanks to #NFTs, which Bungie is not?

Where can we look for an answer to this?

Is it the fact that @yugalabs is able to 'leverage their #Web3 brand' to build a 'transmedia IP' spanning games, TV series and movies, etc?

Unlikely. @Bungie is doing that with the Destiny IP, too.

forbes.com/sites/paultass…

So what is it that drives the @yugalabs valuation to such lofty heights, in such short a time?

They have certainly yet to prove that they can provide value beyond their core audience of #NFT holders.

In fact, most of that value is stored in the THEORETICAL value of those #NFTs.

Beyond that, what is @yugalabs offering?

A wealth-gated community of crypto bros?

I’m sure it’s a valuable network, and the events they host are wild, but does it indicate a scalable business model? Not so much.

So is @OthersideMeta for #NFT holders? Or is it for everyone?

If it’s for everyone they are competing on @Bungie’s terms, as a video game, and it seems like might struggle to deliver there - despite the vast treasury.

If it’s just for #NFT holders, even if that pool grows in future, it isn’t clear how well that idea scales.

Puzzling.