Ben Griffis Profile picture
May 13 23 tweets 20 min read
I have some free time this afternoon, so I think I'll live tweet some of my tactics thoughts on the first leg of Luton Town - Huddersfield

I'll just keep adding tweets to this thread each time I've got something 👍

#LUTHUD | #COYH | #HTAFC
Should be 3-5-2 vs 3-5-2, will be an interesting one.

The noise coming through my headphones is nuts. Something special about low capacity stadiums
Think we know how high/low Luton's defense normally sits hahaha

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
I really hope Luton keep this up. GK did very well to punch this one away, but a slight mistake on timing and that's deadly. Good delivery

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
Great job by Bell honestly. Forced a much worse-chance shot.

Sinani does so well though, 0-1 Huddersfield

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
3 corners now. Super fun to see

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
Huddersfield, when Luton's CBs or CMs march up to the final third, look to be staying compact. Forces Luton wide.

Don't think Luton are really against that, honestly. They like to move down the flanks anyway, even quick transitions, to flash a cross in

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
Fucking delicious delivery on this FK are you kidding me??? The whip, the pace, the dip...

But lots of space, way too much, given to Bradley

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
Luton with some quality positioning when they put Huddersfield under pressure. Haven't done this super often, but something to watch for

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
Halftime.

Incredibly fun game to watch so far. Initially, both clubs were looking to play route one balls down the wing/half-space to a striker or winger.

10/15 minutes in they both started building up more methodically.

2 great goals, 1 per club

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
I would say Huddersfield's goal had +ve elements from both teams. Like image above calls out, great positional awareness by Luton's Bell, but Sinani's strike too good.

Luton's goal only had +ves for Luton. 🍑 of a delivery, but Huddersfield defender left too much space
#LUTHUD
2nd half about to kick off.

Luton have around 61% of the ball so far, but average 44.2% possession per game this season.

They also are missing their top scorer, Adebayo, who has scored a whopping 28% of their goals this season.

Here we go, ball rolls

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
This tweet isn't tactical.

But pretty sure Naby Sarr being about 35 times the size of Campbell is why that's not a penalty.

Honestly don't know how Campbell didn't see that wall on the pitch

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
I'm sorry but this game has some of the most interesting corners I've seen in a single match in probably forever

From Luton crowding every single player into the 6 yard box to Huddersfield crowding every single player past the far post... jogo bonito

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
Commentator: "that's a cheap yellow card to give away by the Luton defender"

Me: "ha yeah not cheap at all"

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
Close call for Huddersfield. Several options, but players not on the same wavelength

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
Ok TV crew, could you zoom out just a little please? thanks 😅

This wasn't another far-post crowding... This time Huddersfield appeared to line up at the top of the box and sprint in.

What a crazy match for set pieces

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
wtf add it to the list lol

I'm sorry this thread has become a set-piece thread. It's just......... fascinating. Not seen a match like it

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
This one above looks like what they've decided on. two in a row, that level of consistency in this mach, to me, means Carlos has decided on it haha

So many corners

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
Ok I really liked this move. Simple, but very effective. Allowed Huddersfield to march into the final third with ease. Great ball circulation here

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
Luton player cuts in, but was there possibly a better option available?

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
Rough bit of luck for Luton at the end

Final whistle blows at 90'+4:08, after like 2 minutes of dead time in the 4 minutes

As you can see, ball is in the air and the ref ends it. Luton player in one of the most promising attacking positions of the game

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC
And that's a wrap! Honestly, great match. Very fun to watch, but also some interesting tactics on display, especially if set-pieces are your 🍞&🧈

@htafc frobably happier of the two going into a home leg 1-1, but @LutonTown can also be very happy 👏💪

#LUTHUD | #LTFC | #HTAFC

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More from @BeGriffis

May 14
I've been researching a number of soccer data sites recently to see what their data use/scraping policies are.

Wanted to share what I've found so far in this thread.

A critical factor to consider when using third party (i.e. not your own created dataset) is use ethics & terms
.@fbref, Starting w/ probably the biggest one.

Scraping:

FBRef allows you to scrape, but can block you if you send more than 1 request every 3 seconds.

You will be blocked for about half a day... Enough time to add some code to 🆙 request time 😉
sports-reference.com/bot-traffic.ht…
Now, even more vital, @fbref data use policy

CITE!!!! This goes for all data sources

Also, you cannot use FBRef data to make a web tool for people. That's a competing product and not allowed.

You can make vizzes obv, but not something that's like FBRef
sports-reference.com/data_use.html
Read 14 tweets
May 13
Big matches coming up in #LaLigaSmartBank today & tomorrow!

4 points between 1st & 3rd (@UDAlmeria_Eng , @SDEibar & @realvalladolidE ), 3 matches to go! Top 2 automatically promoted.

These images show simulated result probabilities & each match's scoreline probabilities
#RealSociedadBAlmería

@U_D_Almeria are currently in 1st & a win here would guarantee promotion!

Most likely result is 0-1 to Almería.

Chances of Almería scoring at least 1: 79%
Chances of Real Sociedad B scoring at least 1: 55%

Chances of both teams scoring at least 1: 44%
#RealValladolidPonferradina

@realvalladolid sit 2 points off 2nd, 4 off 1st. A win here & they jump Eibar even if just for 2 hours before their kick off. Putting on the pressure would be important.

However, Ponferradina need a win, sitting 1 pt away from promotion playoffs now
Read 4 tweets
May 12
Massive #NLD today.

Wanted to see if Harry Kane performs any differently against Arsenal in the Premier League than against other teams...

Essentially, no 😂 Using a simulation of a normal distribution, his G-xG is pretty similar.

T-test also insignificant @ .05

#coys #TOTARS Image
This basically simulates 100,000 matches of each, using his mean G-xG/90 & standard deviation.

Only looks at PL games where he played at least 45 minutes.

Performed a Monte Carlo simulation in R & also a quick unequal variance t-test in Excel which was non-significant at 95%
Note that the eye test seems to show he performs worse, on average, in the NLD. Yes, his mean is lower (ex: the simulated mean = -.076, but not vs Arsenal = .105).

But given the sample sizes (9 NLDs, over 140 non-NLD, only data since start of 17/18), t-test was not significant
Read 4 tweets

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