I would say Huddersfield's goal had +ve elements from both teams. Like image above calls out, great positional awareness by Luton's Bell, but Sinani's strike too good.
Luton's goal only had +ves for Luton. 🍑 of a delivery, but Huddersfield defender left too much space #LUTHUD
2nd half about to kick off.
Luton have around 61% of the ball so far, but average 44.2% possession per game this season.
They also are missing their top scorer, Adebayo, who has scored a whopping 28% of their goals this season.
@realvalladolid sit 2 points off 2nd, 4 off 1st. A win here & they jump Eibar even if just for 2 hours before their kick off. Putting on the pressure would be important.
However, Ponferradina need a win, sitting 1 pt away from promotion playoffs now
This basically simulates 100,000 matches of each, using his mean G-xG/90 & standard deviation.
Only looks at PL games where he played at least 45 minutes.
Performed a Monte Carlo simulation in R & also a quick unequal variance t-test in Excel which was non-significant at 95%
Note that the eye test seems to show he performs worse, on average, in the NLD. Yes, his mean is lower (ex: the simulated mean = -.076, but not vs Arsenal = .105).
But given the sample sizes (9 NLDs, over 140 non-NLD, only data since start of 17/18), t-test was not significant