My thoughts on the election timeline and reflecting on post-election analysis. A thread 🧵1/39
of two parts 1/25 followed by another 1/14 in the response.
1/25
Somalia was in an election fervour for more than a year, which marred public cohesion.
of two parts 1/25 followed by another 1/14 in the response.
1/25
Somalia was in an election fervour for more than a year, which marred public cohesion.
2/25
It divided the country into two groups with previously existing cleavages: a public camp dubbed NN, which stands for Nabad&Nolol (peace and life), versus national elites, including aspirants of the presidential candidates.
It divided the country into two groups with previously existing cleavages: a public camp dubbed NN, which stands for Nabad&Nolol (peace and life), versus national elites, including aspirants of the presidential candidates.
3/25
The former was unorganised public individuals from inside and outside the country who sensed the hope of a Somali state returning to the world stage.
The former was unorganised public individuals from inside and outside the country who sensed the hope of a Somali state returning to the world stage.
4/25
In contrast, the latter was a composition of national elites formed by the nation's spoils during the county's failure and NGOs, both INGOs and LNGOs.
In contrast, the latter was a composition of national elites formed by the nation's spoils during the county's failure and NGOs, both INGOs and LNGOs.
5/25
The latter has been seen by the former as foreign puppets backed by traditional colonial countries and intervenors and nicknamed them MBB, in Somali: Mooryaanta Baraha Bulshada (marauders in the social media).
The latter has been seen by the former as foreign puppets backed by traditional colonial countries and intervenors and nicknamed them MBB, in Somali: Mooryaanta Baraha Bulshada (marauders in the social media).
6/25
The NN showed concern about the intention of the western colonials who sought to exploit Somalia's oil in nuts.
The NN showed concern about the intention of the western colonials who sought to exploit Somalia's oil in nuts.
7/25
To discredit their opponents, The MBBs gave the NN CBB pseudonym in Somali: Cayayaanka Baraha Bulshada (insects in the social media). However, the NN represented the false name as Ciidanaka Baraha Bulshada (Forces in the Social Media).
To discredit their opponents, The MBBs gave the NN CBB pseudonym in Somali: Cayayaanka Baraha Bulshada (insects in the social media). However, the NN represented the false name as Ciidanaka Baraha Bulshada (Forces in the Social Media).
8/25
On 28 Dec 2019, the House of the people (HoP) of Somalia passed the first-past-post universal suffrage election in the country. The HoP amended two contentious issues before adjudicating the new law: extending the President's term and the Somaliland issue.
On 28 Dec 2019, the House of the people (HoP) of Somalia passed the first-past-post universal suffrage election in the country. The HoP amended two contentious issues before adjudicating the new law: extending the President's term and the Somaliland issue.
9/25
On 27 Jun 2020, Halima Yarey @HalimaNIEC, the head of the electoral commission, put forward a potential mechanism before the House of the people: Biometric and Manual registrations.
On 27 Jun 2020, Halima Yarey @HalimaNIEC, the head of the electoral commission, put forward a potential mechanism before the House of the people: Biometric and Manual registrations.
10/25
She said she could deliver the Biometric in 13 months or by the end of July 2021. This plan would have extended the President's term, ending on 08 Feb 2021, to five months only.
She said she could deliver the Biometric in 13 months or by the end of July 2021. This plan would have extended the President's term, ending on 08 Feb 2021, to five months only.
11/25
Manual registration, Halima said, was cheaper and quicker. Hence, the commissioner said she needed nine months, and there will be only one month of extension.
Manual registration, Halima said, was cheaper and quicker. Hence, the commissioner said she needed nine months, and there will be only one month of extension.
12/25
Unlike the sitting President, the Somalis elites, including the Federal Member States (FMS) leaders, PM, aspirants of the presidential candidates, and the international community, aka intervenors, showed discontent and rejected Halima's proposal entirely.
Unlike the sitting President, the Somalis elites, including the Federal Member States (FMS) leaders, PM, aspirants of the presidential candidates, and the international community, aka intervenors, showed discontent and rejected Halima's proposal entirely.
13/25
However, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo offered an invitation meeting at Villa Somalia on 05 Jul 2020 with the heads of the FMS and PM (national security council) to discuss available routes.
However, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo offered an invitation meeting at Villa Somalia on 05 Jul 2020 with the heads of the FMS and PM (national security council) to discuss available routes.
14/25
On Monday, 06 Jul 2020, while there was a presidential invitation for the national security council, which encompasses the FMS and PM, to discuss Halima's proposal, the leaders of the FMS announced an alternative meeting in Dhusamareeb on 09 Jul 2020.
On Monday, 06 Jul 2020, while there was a presidential invitation for the national security council, which encompasses the FMS and PM, to discuss Halima's proposal, the leaders of the FMS announced an alternative meeting in Dhusamareeb on 09 Jul 2020.
15/25
On 09 Jul 2020, the state-run television, SNTV, displayed a few minutes of a prime minister's teleconference, announcing the council of ministers sectioning that 1P1V will not be possible and the country will go to the indirect elections.
On 09 Jul 2020, the state-run television, SNTV, displayed a few minutes of a prime minister's teleconference, announcing the council of ministers sectioning that 1P1V will not be possible and the country will go to the indirect elections.
16/25
A move most of the Somalis translated to a coup d'etat against the incumbent President. The FMS announced, on 13 Jul 2020, after a conference on 11-12 Jul 2020, that there would be no extension and no 1P1V and asked the President and the PM to join the Dhuusamareeb meeting.
A move most of the Somalis translated to a coup d'etat against the incumbent President. The FMS announced, on 13 Jul 2020, after a conference on 11-12 Jul 2020, that there would be no extension and no 1P1V and asked the President and the PM to join the Dhuusamareeb meeting.
17/25
The President and the PM accepted the call from the FMS, and Somali leaders announced after the conference, aka Dhusamareeb 2, which lasted from 19–22 July 2020. On 22 Jul 2020, the leaders have announced they agreed on eight items, including:
The President and the PM accepted the call from the FMS, and Somali leaders announced after the conference, aka Dhusamareeb 2, which lasted from 19–22 July 2020. On 22 Jul 2020, the leaders have announced they agreed on eight items, including:
18/25
strengthening unity; cooperation of FGS & FMS; working together on debt relief; election to be on time; establishing a technical committee to recommend the type of election; announced Dhuusamareeb 3 within two wks; thanked the Galmudug and its people; thanked IC.
strengthening unity; cooperation of FGS & FMS; working together on debt relief; election to be on time; establishing a technical committee to recommend the type of election; announced Dhuusamareeb 3 within two wks; thanked the Galmudug and its people; thanked IC.
19/25
On 14 Aug 2020, Dhuusamareeb 3 started. The FMS of PL and JL has declined to attend the predetermined meeting. It is worth noting that the leader of GM paid visits to the turncoat FMS leaders of JL and PL.
On 14 Aug 2020, Dhuusamareeb 3 started. The FMS of PL and JL has declined to attend the predetermined meeting. It is worth noting that the leader of GM paid visits to the turncoat FMS leaders of JL and PL.
20/25
On 21 Aug 2020, leaders of the FGS, GM, SW, HS and Benadir region concluded the Dhuusamareeb 3 with 17 point items, including no 1P1V, voting in 4 districts in every FMS in a party system except senators whom the FMSs will select, with 301 votes each and HoP to endorse.
On 21 Aug 2020, leaders of the FGS, GM, SW, HS and Benadir region concluded the Dhuusamareeb 3 with 17 point items, including no 1P1V, voting in 4 districts in every FMS in a party system except senators whom the FMSs will select, with 301 votes each and HoP to endorse.
21/25
Although the GM leader said the missing leaders had no excuse but to come, the IC announced that it would not accept any outcome without JL and PL. President Farmaajo had compromised and called for another meeting at Villa Somalia.
Although the GM leader said the missing leaders had no excuse but to come, the IC announced that it would not accept any outcome without JL and PL. President Farmaajo had compromised and called for another meeting at Villa Somalia.
22/25
On 17 Sept 2020, the leaders had confined to another meeting in Mogadishu, and after wrangling, there was another 17 point agreement lessening election sites to two districts and voters' size to 101.
On 17 Sept 2020, the leaders had confined to another meeting in Mogadishu, and after wrangling, there was another 17 point agreement lessening election sites to two districts and voters' size to 101.
23/25
The two prevalent FMS (PL & JL) rebuffed implementation of the 17 Sept 2020 agreement, endorsed by the two houses, signed by the President, published in the national gazette and issued with law number 30.
The two prevalent FMS (PL & JL) rebuffed implementation of the 17 Sept 2020 agreement, endorsed by the two houses, signed by the President, published in the national gazette and issued with law number 30.
24/25
On 12 Apr 2021, after the term had passed, the HoP extended the tenure of the President two years by 149 votes and returned to 1P1V.
On 12 Apr 2021, after the term had passed, the HoP extended the tenure of the President two years by 149 votes and returned to 1P1V.
25/25
Before the conclusion of the HoP session, the Benadir police chief said he "stopped today's session because parliament's term expired, and there is no need to extend their term."
Before the conclusion of the HoP session, the Benadir police chief said he "stopped today's session because parliament's term expired, and there is no need to extend their term."
26/39
MP Hassan Moallim said before the deliberations that "I see something big coming. I must warn you that what you are doing is at the behest of the executive arm of government."
MP Hassan Moallim said before the deliberations that "I see something big coming. I must warn you that what you are doing is at the behest of the executive arm of government."
27/39
On 27 Dec 2021, a clan militia calling (in Somali Ciidamada Badbaado Qaran) a national salvation army appeared in some neighbourhoods of Mogadishu.
On 27 Dec 2021, a clan militia calling (in Somali Ciidamada Badbaado Qaran) a national salvation army appeared in some neighbourhoods of Mogadishu.
28/39
With all these irregularities, the IC was twisting the hand of the people's choice, aka Xabiibul Malaayin, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo.
With all these irregularities, the IC was twisting the hand of the people's choice, aka Xabiibul Malaayin, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo.
29/39
Knowing the sensitivities, the President didn't exercise his powers. He also was willing to compromise for the greater good. He announced to refrain from violence, revoked the extension and called for the return of the 17 Sept 2020 agreement.
Knowing the sensitivities, the President didn't exercise his powers. He also was willing to compromise for the greater good. He announced to refrain from violence, revoked the extension and called for the return of the 17 Sept 2020 agreement.
30/39
The IC kept on threatening sanctions on him. Despite that, he refused to bow down to them but also was aware of Somalia's fragility and, thus, lenient toward them.
The IC kept on threatening sanctions on him. Despite that, he refused to bow down to them but also was aware of Somalia's fragility and, thus, lenient toward them.
31/39
He was conciliatory at all times. Plus, his attitude made millions of passive and silent Somalis involved in the affairs of Somali politics.
He was conciliatory at all times. Plus, his attitude made millions of passive and silent Somalis involved in the affairs of Somali politics.
32/39
In hindsight, five FMS warlords and colonials, under the cloak of the international community, highjacked the public's wish to elect their leaders.
In hindsight, five FMS warlords and colonials, under the cloak of the international community, highjacked the public's wish to elect their leaders.
33/39
Instead, a juxtaposition of foreign spies, illiterates and warlords won to decide for millions of people ready to cast their votes and elect their leaders.
Instead, a juxtaposition of foreign spies, illiterates and warlords won to decide for millions of people ready to cast their votes and elect their leaders.
34/39
From Jubbaland, a new political vocabulary, Malxiis or bridesmaid, was brought into Somali politics. The heads of FMS nominated the seat and bridesmaids, and some were seen voting for their competitors. The worst was to hold elections in Kenya, where Kenyan soldiers voted.
From Jubbaland, a new political vocabulary, Malxiis or bridesmaid, was brought into Somali politics. The heads of FMS nominated the seat and bridesmaids, and some were seen voting for their competitors. The worst was to hold elections in Kenya, where Kenyan soldiers voted.
35/39
Last night, the regime change process of the coup d'etat against the public wish had materialised. Farmaajo, the dear of millions, lost to potentially the buddy of the west, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, to be the next President of Somalia.
Last night, the regime change process of the coup d'etat against the public wish had materialised. Farmaajo, the dear of millions, lost to potentially the buddy of the west, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, to be the next President of Somalia.
36/39
Last night, at Horufadhi media twitter space, a proponent of 1P1V and adherent to Farmaajo had invited Abdirashid Khalif Hashi, former HIPS and devotee of HSM.
Last night, at Horufadhi media twitter space, a proponent of 1P1V and adherent to Farmaajo had invited Abdirashid Khalif Hashi, former HIPS and devotee of HSM.
37/39
Naively, however, he either thought the NN forces could be used as the vehicle of propaganda for the new administration, or he wanted something to carry on with so that he bargains with the HSM team.
Naively, however, he either thought the NN forces could be used as the vehicle of propaganda for the new administration, or he wanted something to carry on with so that he bargains with the HSM team.
38/39
Today is the first day of the new administration. Already the USA has announced a unilateral decision; the new President met USA ambassadors in his room in Halane. A phenomenon that the former President resisted and caused many Somalis to feel their heads were high.
Today is the first day of the new administration. Already the USA has announced a unilateral decision; the new President met USA ambassadors in his room in Halane. A phenomenon that the former President resisted and caused many Somalis to feel their heads were high.
39/39
Whatever the case, NN or CCB, if you like, are unorganised forces that most professionals care less about clan cleavages. They cannot be a mortar for any machinery that is not answering their wishes.
Whatever the case, NN or CCB, if you like, are unorganised forces that most professionals care less about clan cleavages. They cannot be a mortar for any machinery that is not answering their wishes.
*mostly professionals who care less about clan cleavages
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