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May 17 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1. End of act one in #FinlandNATO as the Parliament gives its blessing to the membership. Enter act two: the interim period and ratifications. Next, Finland will send its formal application to NATO and begin membership negotiations.
2. The negotiations with NATO are likely to be short and quick. Perhaps done in a matter of weeks. After that I expect we will get quite many fast ratifications before the Madrid Summit by several member states, especially Nordic-Baltic.
3. It remains to be seen how long it will take to get to all 30 ratifications, estimations around 4 months to a year. The US has indicated a willingness to ratify by August, which is a strong signal for others. But even if the process might take some time, we'll get there.
4. Finland is prepared for Russia’s retaliation that could take many forms. So far, the reactions have been less than expected.

5. Finland remains prepared as it enters act two, but it's starting to seem that Russia is coming to terms with Finland’s NATO membership. Not because it "approves" it but because it just might have to...
6. Russia's overstrech in Ukraine, Finland’s overwhelming domestic/democratic support (the people, the Parliament/Parties and the Government + President), Finland’s vasta civil/military preparedness as well as security assurances from e.g. the UK, France, Germany, US and Nordics.
7. Due to the above, the threshold for serious intervention in Finland's or Sweden's NATO accession is very high and likely beyond Russia’s reach. Both countries succeeded in building a "DDR posture": defence, deterrence and resilience and managed to play out Moscow.
8. Not forgetting the important move by President Niinistö to call Putin. This made it possible to attempt a management of the reactions directly with Russia's top leadership and indicate Finland’s motives: to tell our story before others do it.

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More from @HenriVanhanen

Henri Vanhanen Profile picture
May 15
Historical times as Finland announces its decision to apply for NATO membership. Since things are advancing at a fast pace, a thread addressing the on-going debate of the subject and about what has happened with #Finland and #NATO since. 🇫🇮🧵
1. On May 12th, the President and Prime Minister of Finland announced their personal stance - but not yet the country's formal decision - on Finland's NATO membership.

Very simple: "Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay."

presidentti.fi/en/press-relea…
2. On the same day, the President wrote a blog post in which he explained his stance.

"Through NATO membership, Finland maximises its own security. It is without detriment to anyone, it is not targeted against anyone."

presidentti.fi/en/blog/from-t…
Read 24 tweets
Henri Vanhanen Profile picture
May 10
As we approach Finland's formal decision on NATO, a recap thread of what has happened and why since Russia's attack in Ukraine. In short: in just 3 months, Finland has prepared itself to apply for NATO membership. A lot of change but also continuum.
1. Finnish NATO debate began to take rounds already as Russia's military build-up began late last year. This lead to an increased debate about joining NATO. In January a @hsfi poll indicated NATO support going up to 28% in favor and 42% against.

hs.fi/politiikka/art…
2. NATO polls were steady for decades, around 17-25% in favor and traditionally over 50% against. Thus, the shift in public opinion was not dramatic until February 24th. After that the trend changed from 50% and now the latest up to 76% in favor of NATO.

yle.fi/news/3-12437506
Read 27 tweets
Henri Vanhanen Profile picture
May 9
Important week ahead for Finland and NATO.

1. On the 12th, the President and the Prime Minister will announce their stance on NATO membership.

2. On the 14th, the SDP party Council will announce their NATO stance.

3. NATO support up to 76% in favor(!) yle.fi/news/3-12437506
The next steps as we approach Finland’s likely NATO application:

After the President’s/PM’s + SDP party council announcements, the ’President & Ministerial Committee on Foreign and Security Policy’ will have a meeting to form the legal position to apply for NATO (14.5. or 15.5.)
This proposal will then be given to the Parliament in the form of a short white paper, probably on 16.5. A vote on NATO will follow likely on the 17.5. or 18.5. After the Parliament’s vote/support, the President/Government will send the formal letter to join NATO (Brussels).
Read 4 tweets
Henri Vanhanen Profile picture
Apr 23
Where we are with 🇫🇮 and NATO: a brief update on the subject. Short answer, the train is still moving steady and onward to applying for NATO membership. While things have developed rapidly in a short time period, we are long past the question "will we" and moved on to "when".
1. First things first: the public support. The majority of Finns have supported NATO membership since the war started in February. The most recent polls by @hsfi 13.4. at 59% in favor and by @MTVUutiset 11.4. at 68% in favor. The supportive trend continues.
2. The Parliament: as of 22.4. out of the 200 MP's in the Finnish Parliament 114 are in favor of NATO, 11 are against and the stance of 75 MP's is not publicly known. Safe to say that the numbers and the trend in favor of NATO are quite evident as well.

yle.fi/uutiset/3-1241…
Read 22 tweets
Henri Vanhanen Profile picture
Apr 13
The Finnish Government 🇫🇮 has published its report on security policy, which discusses the changes in Europe and the ramifications for Finland.

A thread on the key takes of the report's NATO address.

um.fi/current-affair…
1. To start, ss said by the GoF earlier, the report would not address the question should Finland join NATO or not. Therefore the report has no stance on the issue. Instead it discusses the practical implications for Finland's defence and security.
2. Yet, in context of the current national debate and the NATO/security assessment process in the Parliament, some lines stand out. Examples will follow:
Read 25 tweets
Henri Vanhanen Profile picture
Apr 7
A thread on international reactions on Finland's 🇫🇮potential NATO membership. Key take: the initial caution amid the early weeks of the war is shifting to a openly positive support for Finland. Escalation fears are fading as the war prolongs and becomes more brutal.
1. Norwegian 🇳🇴 FM @AHuitfeldt 1.4. :

"NATO's door remains open to those European countries that want to join and meet the membership criteria. If Finland applied for NATO membership, it would of course have the full support of Norway."

hs.fi/politiikka/art…
2. Danish 🇩🇰 PM Mette Fredriksen 30.3. :

"If or when Finland would choose to seek membership of NATO, Denmark would of course support it very strongly."

arctictoday.com/denmark-would-…
Read 22 tweets

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