Thread by @TimoStewart

As a lot of people are discussing #Finland joining #NATO, I'll post a few thoughts explaining Finnish perspectives and the debate we've had over here. I'll try to avoid the usual foreign and security policy jargon, but I am a historian, so guess where we'll start. 🧵

1. Why didn't Finland join NATO in 1949? Well, we were on the losing side of WWII. Finland wasn't occupied by the Soviets, but they had a military base here until 1956. Finland was also forced to sign an Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance with the USSR.

2. The period of "Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance" lasted until the fall of the USSR in 1991. Until then Finland tried to make the best of a difficult situation, with mixed results. The resulting political self-censorship of sorts has been called Finlandization.

3. More to the point, Finland stayed out of NATO not because people weren't scared of the Soviets, rather the opposite. The Finnish leadership would not have dared to antagonise the Soviets by applying, and Nato probably would not have welcomed it either.

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1526215814541479938?s=20&t=AibJc9uvln22FSXmSIqxyA

4. In the 1990s, after the fall of the USSR, Russia was still there but Finland was finally more free to make its own choices. It joined Nato's PfP in 1994 and the EU in 1995 (with Sweden and Austria). At the time, security policy was considered a major reason for joining the EU.

5. As for NATO, it wasn't initially clear where it was headed after the fall of the USSR. It took the US a few years to come around to expansion. The wars in Chechnya played a role in encouraging new applicants, but it wasn't until 1999 that new members were admitted.

6. Finns have debated NATO on and off for the past 20+ years. Arguments have combined historical and political assessments with questions of identity and values, but it must be said that the quality of the debate hasn't always been great. At times it has been a bit of a joke.

7. There has been steady support for NATO membership, mostly on the right, but it has been a minority position. Over half have opposed membership. However, polls also say support increases significantly if the political leadership recommends membership.

8. Long after the USSR was gone, Finnish foreign and security policy vis-a-vis Russia was usually still treated as something best discussed behind closed doors or by using euphemisms and opacity. If someone broke ranks, condemnation was swift.
yle.fi/news/3-5801879

9. To be clear, nobody in Finland wants bad relations with Russia. Russia is not going anywhere. The disagreement is in whether good relations (and a strong army and EU membership) is enough or whether one should also prepare for the worst by joining a military alliance.

10. Those opposed to NATO have often combined overall opposition to "militarism" and nuclear weapons, an ideological attachment to neutrality or non-alignment, scepticism about anyone actually helping Finland in a bind and faith in Finland's ability to pull through on its own.

11. Opposition to US policy has played a role in the Finnish NATO debate. This was not helped by the deeply unpopular Iraq war that started in 2003. Although Finnish troops have served in NATO led operations (e.g. Afghanistan), the fear of being entangled in faraway wars remains.

12. There is also deep unease about annoying the Kremlin. This is either prudent foreign policy or the leftovers of Stockholm syndrome resulting from decades of Finlandization, depending on who you ask. Could be a bit of both. At any rate relations with Russia have been important

13. A few historical myths have distorted thinking along the way. One of them is that Finland has always survived alone. Although true of the Winter War of 1939-1940, it was not a great situation to be in, Finland actually lost the war and the remedy sought in 1941 was horrible.

14. Still, most Finns agreed on at least this:
a) The risk of Russian attack is low but not zero,
b) such a conflict must be avoided at all cost,
c) in addition to good relations with Russia and international support, avoiding war also requires credible deterrence, a strong army.

15. These are lessons that have been drilled into Finns through centuries of war (dates below). Practically everyone has family who fought, were killed or lost their homes in WWII. This explains why Finland has maintained conscription and a large military.

https://twitter.com/stammekann/status/1525822620771418113?s=20&t=AibJc9uvln22FSXmSIqxyA

16. Conscription also means that most men (and some women) share the experience of military service. People gripe about it, but also feel deep pride. Willingness to defend the country militarily, even under uncertain circumstances, is very high.

17. When Finns think of what would have happened if the army had collapsed in 1939-1944, they think of mass executions, torture, deportation and the Gulag that was the fate of the Ingrians, Estonians, Poles and many others. For Finns, what happened in #Bucha fits a long pattern.

18. So when Finns serve in the military, everyone knows why they are there. "You shouldn't assume the enemy will come from the east," goes the old joke, "it might try a flanking maneuver."

19. Still, the potential threat posed by Russia is not something most Finns have actively feared. It's more like living close to a dormant volcano. Nothing is likely to happen in one's lifetime, but it's good to keep an eye out and prepare, just in case.

20. Russia's wars in Chechnya (1994-96, 1999-2000), Georgia (2008), Ukraine (2014-) and Syria (2015-) didn't manage to change Finnish attitudes on a large scale, but when Russia amassed troops on Ukraine's border and indicated that Finland should _not_ join NATO, things changed.

21. The invasion of Ukraine undermined confidence in Russia, its no-NATO comments were reminders of spheres of influence. War also opened a window of opportunity as Russia was tied down in Ukraine and the US became more welcoming of Finland's NATO membership in a tense situation.

22. Finnish support for NATO tripled to 76%. President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced their support and 188 out of 200 MPs voted in favour of joining. The application was signed yesterday and submitted today.

23. What will change? Many seem to feel somewhat relieved. A long debate has ended and a clear path has been chosen. Finns are confident in speedy membership and most agree that this will increase our security and make war less likely. If not, Finland won't be alone again.

24. What has remained the same? Finns still feel primarily responsible for their own security and want good relations with all. Russia is also still there. At some point we'll have to figure out how to rebuild a relationship. But first they must end their war in Ukraine. 🧵ENDS