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Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
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May 18 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
#Moldova: I have read some recent comments about the situation in Moldova in the light of the Russian aggression against Ukraine. I will underline some common fallacies, which are detrimental to understanding the true roots of the problems in Moldova:⤵️
1) There are two issues where Russia has a say and can push the buttons to worsen the situation, if necessary - energy and the Transnistrian conflict. 2) Energy dependence of Moldova on Russian is mainly on gas. Now, this issue depends on the global market and⤵️
the contract signed by the current pro-EU government, with all the implications and risks (criticized by the opposition and even by former members of the government); 3) The Transnistrian regime is another "black box" that the government has no idea how to handle,⤵️
including the security and energy (power production) threat issues that come from that. As I identified earlier, there are two main theses about who is behind the recent attempt to destabilize the region:⤵️
Russian military-security circles and/or local interest groups trying to resolve their own issues with the constitutional authorities (where they already have achieved some results linked to import restrictions).⤵️
4) Moldova is experiencing the highest inflation rate in all of Europe (up 27 percentage points year-on-year). This inflation is not causally related to any direct Russian action against Moldova. In reality, weakened by Russian aggression against Ukraine, but also being⤵️
interconnected with Ukraine and Russia and Belarus (hit by sanctions) on trade and trade chain of supply, Moldova has suffered several blows as a cascading effect (I would call it a tsunami). 5) The refugee crisis had added to the problems that the country was already facing⤵️
due to the pandemic crisis and the energy price crisis (based on a contract signed by the ruling party/Sandu). In a nutshell, Moldova is suffering from a combination of crises, which are not all generated by Russia, but were inflamed by the Russian war against Ukraine and⤵️
the fallout from sanctions (which are hurting Russia and Belarus, but also have certain costs for others that should be absorbed as a form of solidarity towards Ukraine!). Moldova has already been receiving assistance, including for resilience.⤵️
The EU has proposed a €600 million package for 2025 in 2021. Western partners proposed another package of up to €700 million in April this year. However, this is not enough. The Moldovan government wants grants, not loans (debts), but⤵️
the problem is that access to “easy money” (grants) is very limited and Ukraine requires a large part of it. The Moldovan government has no choice but to start absorbing what it has been given and prepare for new loans (including the IMF).⤵️
Concomitantly, the govt has to produce reforms and modernize the army to ensure that the neutrality doesn’t exist only on paper. 👇

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 18
#Russia_Ukraine: Russia's defense spending exceeded $9 billion a month in April, or about $300 million a day (twice as much as before the attack on Ukraine). This is almost half of the amount that Ukraine needs to resist aggression and other implications of the war.⤵️
In April, Zelenskiy admitted that Ukraine needs monthly aid of up to 7 billion dollars to overcome the losses caused by the Russian war. While Ukraine demands Western help, Russia is maximizing its budget surpluses due to high oil and gas prices.
reuters.com/world/zelenski…
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 16
#Russia_Sanctions: Today's FAC meeting did not bring the sixth energy package to fruition. Borrel has been quite dissatisfied when responding to journalists. He underlined the following: 1) Serbia is the only candidate state in the Western Balkans that does not align ⤵️
with the EU's foreign policy on Russian sanctions; 2) The EU does not have a cost compensation mechanism for the adherence to the sanctions of North Macedonia, which, on the other hand, has requested macro-financial assistance; ⤵️
3) Hungary's opposition against Russian Patriarch Kirill's sanction and the oil embargo are not interconnected. However, the deadlock in the adoption of new sanctions is related only/mainly to oil; 4) The Hungarian side raised technical and financial questions related to ⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 16
#CSTO_Russia: During today's CSTO summit celebrating 20 years since the bloc's creation, interest was expressed in developing practical cooperation with NATO to ease tension on the continent (?). Earlier, Putin noted that the accession of Sweden and Finland ⤵️
does not pose any serious threat to Russia. On the other hand, the CSTO did not publicly commit to supporting Russia, although it did refer to the peacekeeping mission sent to Kazakhstan in early 2022. Unilateral sanctions were also criticized. The CSTO bloc explicitly ⤵️
mentioned Afghanistan as a problem but did not say a word about Ukraine. It is worth noting that the CSTO condemned the use of force to resolve conflicts, clearly covering up Russian aggression against Ukraine. ⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 16
#Russia_Oligarchs: The Swiss Bankers Association reported that Russian citizens hold up to 200 billion francs in the country. Of these, only 7.5 billion francs have been arrested so far. The Swiss authorities are not determined to freeze the assets. ⤵️
However, Bern established contacts with the "Russian Elites, Proxies and Oligarchs (REPO)" working group, led by the EU and the G7. Meanwhile, Abramovich has announced that the $3.1 billion from the sale of Chelsea FC will be transferred to ⤵️
support the victims of Russian military aggression against Ukraine on both sides, including the population in the LNR and DNR. Other oligarchs such as Tinkov have admitted that they would criticize Russian aggression on moral grounds. ⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 12
#Ukraine_EU: A new controversy is emerging around EU membership. No leader of the EU member states questions Ukraine's well-deserved candidate status (to be confirmed in June). However, Macron, von der Leyen and Baerbock said that⤵️
after Ukraine receives candidate status, a long (perhaps shorter than we think, depending on progress in Ukraine) process of reforms (in parallel with reconstruction) will begin on the way to full EU membership. It's worth recalling that Russia's first aggression in 2014 came⤵️
as a result of pro-EU (signing of the Association Agreement) and anti-Yanukovych/anti-corruption protests. The second aggression in 2022 by the official Kremlin discourse was linked, among other things, to Ukraine's orientation towards NATO (a matter of sovereign choice!).⤵️
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 11
#Ukraine: The great conversation about Ukraine's post-war reparation has begun. The EU wants to link reconstruction with a deep reform process. This means conditionality. Clearly, the money will not be poured out unaccountably and the central authority will play a key role.⤵️
One of the areas that Ursula von der Leyen first mentioned recently was the fight against the oligarchs (setting the rules, enforcing them and disciplining the oligarchs who don’t act by law). She is right because some oligarchs (such as Akhmetov and others) are already⤵️
staring at the imaginary amount of 600 billion dollars, contemplating how they could benefit from it. The war is not over yet, but the principle of the future of Ukraine's reconstruction must be to consider reforms and partial conditionality (as a minimum and for the⤵️
Read 5 tweets

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