Share this page!

G a a h Profile picture
Twitter logo
May 19 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
#Bitcoin 's "post Halving cycle" is compromised.

After each new Halving the price has developed cyclically different behavior.
The structures are similar, but not the same.

-Follow the thread below👇 1/5🧵
In 2013 the price advanced 2 full channels (3 phases), leaving the first move without phase4.

In 2017 price advanced only 1 full channel (3 phases) besides phase 4 being the fastest in history, until then.

#BTC #Bitcoin

2/5🧵
In the current cycle, in 2021, price stopped at phase2 and did not realize phase3, besides realizing phase4 after phase1 and now being inside phase4 again.

A cyclical mess. #BTC

3/5🧵
The price is near the lows for phase4.

50% of the Neutral Zone is around $22,000, historically the price does not exceed the previous all-time high. In this case $20,000.

#Bitcoin #BTC

4/5🧵
The new bullish cycle begins when price establishes $37k as Main Support and breaks $41.4k starting phase1. #BTC

Confirmation that the bottom has indeed occurred is with this move becoming a reality.

5/5🧵

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with G a a h

G a a h Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @gaah_im

G a a h Profile picture
Mar 18
The price has tried the last 3 times to break $40.8k and was successful, next testing $44.4k.

However it came back all 3 times equally, ripping down in search of $37k.

This time price is fighting with high volatility at $40.8k

#Bitcoin

1/4🧵
$40.8k is the key to probability being in favor of a trend reversal (breaking $44.4k), currently the risk of breaking $37k still exists if $40.8k continues to be Resistance!

2/4🧵

Below $37k the Bears are "forcing the bar", so this is the strategic point to be held by the Bulls for the accumulation structure ($60k-$30k) to remain bullish.

50% of the reference channel balances the strength of the armies (Bull vs. Bear).

3/4🧵
Read 4 tweets
G a a h Profile picture
Mar 17
During an uptrend people rush to buy and sell with a sense of desperation, not wanting to be left out of valuations.

Such holders move the Network at these times, creating UTXO/spending UTXO at a profit.

#Bitcoin

1/5🧵
After a spent output is realized, the price in USD of the UTXO created/UTXO spent shows whether the UTXO realized profit/loss.

With one more variable (lifespan) included, in the realization it categorizes whether it is STH(age 1h~155days) or LTH(age >155days).

2/5🧵
That said, when demand is hot in the short to medium term, the reflection in the chain by Short Term Holders (STH) is shown by the #SOPR.

3/5🧵
Read 5 tweets
G a a h Profile picture
Sep 23, 2021
The best time to buy #Bitcoin is now!

The ratio MVRV is defined as the market capitalization of an asset divided by the realized capitalization. With this indicator it is possible to map the behavior in previous cycles and define the revenue of the current moment.

Thread👇👇
1. Ranking the phases of the cycles in sequence of 1-3 starting with NUMBER 1 after the start of the bull market and the top meeting in the middle of the bullish cycle.
2. There is a historical moment in the middle of the bull run, where it always looks like the end of the valuation, however it is just a short-term top in the middle of the bullish run. By hitting that top and offering the best buying moment within the bull market, 👇
Read 16 tweets
G a a h Profile picture
Sep 22, 2021
3.5 channel breaks in 2013, reversal requires 4 total channel breaks, totaling 1 entire sub-cycle.
2.5 channel breaks in the correction we are currently in, much softer than 2013 even retracing -55% since the last top.
After testing in the Neutral Zone, retracement to the stealth point (50% of the REFERENCE CHANNEL) historically occurs.

This point is important as it is where market sentiment turned, as well as being the daily close of the first dip and also the bar close of the Monthly chart.
Read 8 tweets
G a a h Profile picture
Sep 21, 2021
The yellow dotted arrow shows the complete move, it advances 0.5 of the channel in a complete move.

The breakout attempt above 50% led to the trap, and is discounted later in the PIVOT to miss the main bottom of the last few pattern moves. Image
Breaking through sets up a new full move and hits $37k, at the stealth point of the price rebound.

It has only walked 0.5 of the move (the discount at 50% and at the PIVOT). This moment is crucial for the Bulls to advance above $44,400 and have a daily close. Image
If this does not happen, the full move must be completed.

The quick turn around after the dip to $40k has a high probability of being Short positions.

Interest at this time in opening short positions should increase as sentiment is in fear and speculators take advantage. Image
Read 4 tweets
G a a h Profile picture
Sep 21, 2021
About Management and Risk, follow the Thread👇

1. Due to the Macro environment in the chain and the cyclical moment that #Bitcoin is in, I am leaving the more aggressive Risk Management in the Private Fund (BANCA2) that I manage.
2. Today we have positions in over 10 different crypto-actives, including the largest position in #Bitcoin .

The targets set are according to the expansions of my operating model, so they will only be hit when the market wants them.
3. First target in 2 #Bitcoin operations were reached around $51,000 - $52,000

Still the Private Investment Fund has 45-50% of the dollar cash available for operational, plus that cash will go up if it needs it, as there is more liquidity in the Fund for this next leg up.
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(