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Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
@JasonSalemi
May 20, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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1. Based on this week's @CDCgov transmission levels, it's not getting better.

Last week - 72% of people lived in high transmission areas, 89% in substantial or high.

Now, those numbers are 86% and 94%, respectively.

A quick 🧵
2. Approaching half of the population living in an area with medium or high risk (based on hospital capacity and COVID hospital admission rates).

15% of the US population now lives in a "high" level area in which the CDC recommends masking in public indoor settings.
3. Here's where we are now based on both @CDCgov measures.
4. You can see the weekly progression of transmission in many states. So many places now have >90% of their populations in a high transmission area (including Florida).
5. Also seeing more and more people living in medium or high level areas, even with the hospital-based levels. But that progression was to be expected based on the more leading edge indicators: community transmission.
6. How transmission has changed over the past 3 months...
7. How hospitalization-based risk has changed over the past 3 months...
8. Here are the actual reported case rates by state since 3/1/22, based on data released yesterday.
9. And here are the actual hospitalization rates by state, based on data released yesterday.
update for FL 👇👇👇👇👇

This @HealthyFla report, released today, fills in some of the Florida gaps that, for some reason, the CDC was missing in calculating community risk levels.

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More from @JasonSalemi

Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Sep 26, 2023
Brief COVID update

When speaking with NPR last week, I said the plateauing of hospitalizations for 3 weeks made me feel like a downturn was coming.

In FL, the data are suggestive of improvements in the # of people being hospitalized w/ COVID.

1/ Image
The state-specific trends in the COVID hospital census since June 1 also suggest we are seeing a recent decrease in FL (dk purple), the US as a whole (black), and a number of states.

Yes, FL still has among the highest rates, but we also have one of the oldest populations.

2/ Image
If we indeed see a prolonged decrease in COVID hospitalization census, many of the largest states, who have been below previous pandemic years, will start their decrease right as they approach (but do not exceed) 2022 rates.

3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
May 29, 2023
Sorry for the delay everyone, a lot going on personally. But I have modified my dashboard to accommodate the CDC reporting changes.

My site focuses on:
1) Hospitalization-based county risk levels
2) Detailed hosp trends
3) Deaths

with links out for wastewater, variants, vax

1/
The "Risk Indicators" page is similar to the older page, but the data upon which indicators are based has changed. There are no longer "risk levels" and "transmission levels", rather levels based exclusively on "confirmed" COVID hospital admission rates over the prior 7 days.

2/ ImageImageImageImage
The "Hospitalizations" page has not changed much. Still starts out with a Florida-centric look and then gives a lot of state- and age-specific census and admission numbers, rates, and rankings.

3/ ImageImageImageImage
Read 14 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Feb 24, 2023
It's been a while since I've done a #COVID update.

These are national weekly @CDCgov "community levels" based primarily on hospitalization rates.

This past week has been the "best" since April of last year with <1% of the population living in a high-level county.

1/ Image
Of course, this comes with the following caveats according to the CDC, with likely underestimation of levels in Hawaii and Mississippi, and overestimation in several counties in Georgia and Arizona.

2/ Image
Transmission levels are likely to be grossly underreported, but as we look at them over time, are showing modest improvement (LEFT).

This is in agreement with the regional wastewater monitoring data, which also shows improvements over the last 6 weeks (RIGHT).

3/ ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Dec 2, 2022
1/ Updated my #COVID19 dashboard - wanted to do a quick thread on some clearly emerging trends.

covid19florida.mystrikingly.com
2/ Below are adult inpatient hospital census rates for each state since May 1, 2022. Only "confirmed" (as opposed to suspected) COVID hospitalizations are included.

The orange and red coloring suggests recent increases over the past week. Image
3/ But for context, below are the inpatient census stats for adults throughout the pandemic - for most states, we remain well below the worst parts of the pandemic (not that that should be the bar we are trying to avoid). Image
Read 11 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Oct 16, 2022
1/ I've continued to see graphics like the one below served as evidence that COVID vaccines do not work.

Why? Because the NUMBER of COVID-19 deaths among vax people is nearly the same (or even more than) among unvaccinated people.

Quick 11-tweet thread on why this is misleading
2/ I'm going to keep this SIMPLE. This is NOT about infection-acquired immunity vs. vax-acquired immunity. This is just about counts vs. rates.

Assume that vax efficacy is 90% in people 65+.

Monthly COVID mortality rates:
- not vaccinated (20 per 100k)
- vaccinated (2 per 100k)
3/ Assume 3 different vax realities among seniors in the US, and assume pop of 50 million.

Vax rates of 5%, 50%, and 95%.

In the figure, under each scenario, I show the vax vs. non-vax distribution of:
1. the population
2. COVID deaths
Read 12 tweets
Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Oct 14, 2022
@cmzimmer1803 - a few thoughts

1/ We absolutely should be concerned with the changing proportions of variants that are ESTIMATED to be circulating in recent weeks.

Due to their characteristics and increasing make-up of new cases, the pose a threat.
2/ Clearly, part of our genomic surveillance efforts are to have TIMELY information when more concerning variants are increasing in relative prevalence. In this case, it appears we lost some time (I was wondering why those variants were not yet showing up).
3/ BUT, I don't tend to jump to an accusation of something nefarious.

The beginning of the footnote states that variants circulating <1% are grouped into "other". Image
Read 6 tweets

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