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Dr AK Gupta Profile picture
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May 20 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Official Bear Market entry of #SP500. Just about to go 20% from the top
Not all is red.. Specks of green seen.
Done

Will it sustain here?
Manages to recover 2% and will form a DoJi... With all indicators indicating oversold and now a DoJi, Is dead cat bounce incoming?

#SPX500 #DJIA #NASDAQ100

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Dr AK Gupta Profile picture
May 22
@indiacharts @_prashantnair I totally agree. The inflation trajectory may change, not final outcome of inflation.

The projected May 2022 CPI inflation is between 6.5%-7%.

How the fiscal cost of this relief is absorbed, need to be seen.
@indiacharts @_prashantnair The most welcome step is decreasing input cost on raw materials, plastic and steel.

This will help the industry majorly. Something which is need of the hour.

Now we have to see how much supply chain disruptions affect this import.
@indiacharts @_prashantnair War induced commodity price increase have increased inflation estimates worldwide.

IIP growth remained subdued at 1.9% in March compared to an increase of 24.2% a year ago,? on account of the low base effect.
Read 5 tweets
Dr AK Gupta Profile picture
May 22
Lateral Economic Indices

#economics #inflation #recession

@AlessioUrban @PauloMacro @riteshmjn @SamanthaLaDuc @bon_laetitia @markminervini @ankitapathak_ @avasthiniranjan @564pankaj @JustPunforfun @_prashantnair @dugalira @chigrl
Hemline Index (George Taylor, 1925).

Skirt hemlines are higher when the economy is performing better, and longer during downturns.!!!

(Fuming Feminist Economists) Image
Lipstick Index (Leonard Lauder)

He found that in the backdrop of an uncertainity, people wanted to go shopping but desisted buying expensive items.

So most bought lipsticks.

Post 9/11 his company’s lipstick sales doubled.

With the use of mask lipstick Index lost its value. Image
Read 10 tweets
Dr AK Gupta Profile picture
May 21
@bon_laetitia @SamanthaLaDuc

Inflation and Oil. My Take

My take on Oil and Inflation

1. Oil accounts for ~ 4.5% of GDP as you mentioned. At 100$ it was 3% of global GDP.

If 4.5% of global GDP is twice as expensive tomorrow, clearly, this will have some impact on inflation. Image
2. I don't think it's a major driver when it comes to inflation. Monetary Policy plays a more important role.

3. Oil is pertinent to every factory, hence through may not have volumetric effect but still affects cost of goods.
4. When it comes to oil as a source of energy, depending on where we are, 50-60% of what consumers pay is tax

5.. Temporary spikes upto even $150 are very likely. For every 30$ increase per barrel inflation expected to go up by 0.5% after 6 months.
Read 4 tweets
Dr AK Gupta Profile picture
May 20
July 2020-March 2021: Rs 99122 Crore
FY 21-22: Rs 30307 Crore

Significantly down
@dugalira @bqprime @RBI @FinMinIndia
Lowest since 2011 - 2012
(Infographic: @bqprime ) Image
Read 5 tweets
Dr AK Gupta Profile picture
May 16
@SahilKapoor I can probably answer only first question.

1. Oil accounts for approximately 4.5% of GDP as you mentioned. At 100$ it was 3% of global GDP.

If 4.5% of global GDP is twice as expensive tomorrow, clearly, this will have some impact on inflation.

1/n
@SahilKapoor 2. I don't think it's a major driver when it comes to inflation. Monetary Policy plays a more important role.

3. Oil is pertinent to every factory, hence through may not have volumetric effect but still affects cost of goods.

2/n
@SahilKapoor 4. When it comes to oil as a source of energy, depending on where we are, 50-60% of what consumers pay is tax

5.. Temporary spikes upto even $150 are very likely. For every 30$ increase per barrel inflation expected to go up by 0.5% after 6 months.

3/n
Read 6 tweets
Dr AK Gupta Profile picture
May 15
India inflation: Is RBI behind the curve? MPC member Ashima Goyal answers ecoti.in/bL9wqY

@PauloMacro @SahilKapoor @ankitapathak_ @avasthiniranjan @ForexStopHunter @564pankaj @JustPunforfun @profplum99 @AlessioUrban
@riteshmjn @anasalhajji @gautam_icma
TakeAways

1. Do Not over-react to recovery shocks,
2. India is Esp Vulnerable due to Crude Prices, Geopolitics and food inflation
3. We did not giver over stimulus to economy, we are better placed then FED.
4. Real Interest Rates should not deviate too much from balance, without undue volatility, which will decrease the growth sacrifice needed.
5. Markets react to fear, rate hike priced in.
6. Counter Cyclical Fuel Taxes
7. India not reliant on FII inflow.
8. DII are strong
Read 5 tweets

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