Remember those public health vs the economy debates & headlines in 2020-21 when we were saying #CountLongCovid?
Well here goes an answer from none other than the Bank of England.
The quotes below are from a speech by Michael Saunders, Monetary Policy Committee Member: 1/5
"Since Q4-19, the number of people aged 16-64 years that are outside the workforce and do not want a job has risen by 525,000 (1.3% of the 16-64 age population)."
2/5
"This largely reflects increases in long-term sickness (roughly 320,000 people) and retirement (90,000), with smaller contributions from lower participation among students (65-70,000) and short-term sickness (30-35,000 people)."
3/5
"The share of the 16-64 population who are outside the workforce and do not want a job because of long-term sickness is a record high, with an especially sharp rise among women."
P.S. we know that #LongCovid is more common in working age groups and women.
4/5
"I suspect much of this rise in inactivity due to long-term sickness reflects side effects of the pandemic, for example Long Covid and the rise in NHS waiting lists." 5/5
Let's look at what the response to consultation document said about #LongCovid:
"The consultation responses raised concerns that long Covid (sometimes called post-Covid
symptoms) will not be sufficiently considered within the Inquiry’s investigations."
The draft Terms of Reference cover the healthcare sector’s ‘provision for those experiencing
long-COVID’."
"We will also investigate the extent to which risks associated with long Covid
were considered under other parts of the Terms of Reference — for example, consideration of
‘how decisions were made, communicated, and implemented’ will include investigation of....
TL;DR: In the tripple-vaccinated no statistical evidence of difference between the Omicrons & Delta in the prevalence of #LongCovid. However, BA.2 seems to lead to higher prevalence than BA.1 of LC of any severity.
1/7
Odds of LC 4-8 weeks after a *first* covid infection (not reinfections) is 50% lower in infections compatible with the Omicron BA.1 than those compatible with the Delta among adults who were *double-vaccinated* when infected.
Prevalence 15.9% for Delta and 8.7% for BA.1.
2/7
There was no statistical evidence of a difference in risk between first infections compatible with the Delta and Omicron BA.1 variants among *triple-vaccinated* adults.
LC prevalence was 8.5% for Delta and 8% for Omicron BA.1.
3/7
A short thread about the latest #LongCovid prevalence @ONS release as I was ill when it came out 2 wks ago.
Headline of course: 1.7 million people with LC in the UK (2.7% of the population), but there are some other important figures in there too:
(sources at end of thread)
1/8
Of those with LC:
33% first had (or suspected they had) covid before Alpha became the main variant.
15% in the Alpha period.
27% in the Delta period.
19% in the Omicron period.
(minority were of unknown illness duration). 2/8
#LongCovidKids prevalence latest estimates for a duration of at least *12 weeks*:
Even if the cause of the rising cases of hepatitis in children is adenovirus and nothing to do with covid (jury’s still out) then the public health measures to limit spread are the same. It’s a respiratory virus so not it’s not just hand washing.
1/4
“Despite the assumed dominance of droplet transmission, there is robust evidence supporting the airborne transmission of many respiratory viruses”. That includes adenoviruses. science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… @kprather88@jljcolorado
2/4
“Volunteer challenge studies showed that influenza virus and adenovirus infection initiated by the inhalation of infectious bioaerosols required a lower infectious dose”. @nancyleung_hk 3/4 nature.com/articles/s4157…
Talking about covid ‘cases’ in England is not meaningful because free symptomatic and asymptomatic testing stopped for most people, unless you’re talking about prevalence survey results like the @ONS’s That’s 1 in every 13 people on the week ending 2 April. The highest ever. 1/7
The other piece of bad news we got this week is the confirmation that infection with Omicron can cause substantial numbers of #LongCovid. I had some hope that wouldn’t be the case but it’s gone now. The following is from the ONS’s latest LC release:
2/7
“Of people with self-reported long COVID, 561,000 (33%) first had (or suspected they had) COVID-19 before Alpha became the main variant; this figure was 253,000 (15%) in the Alpha period, 470,000 (27%) in the Delta period, and 334,000 (19%) in the Omicron period.”
3/7
All the talk about early treatment with antivirals for those high risk ignores #LongCovid. Although LC is more common among those hospitalised with covid, the majority of people with LC have not been hospitalised or labelled high risk because that’s the majority of infections.
Until there’s more evidence on this, stop dismissing the risk of long covid and focusing only on the risk of hospitalisation or death within 28 days as if these are all that matter.
What I’m saying here is what I’ve been saying for 2 years. Why is #LongCovid ignored as an important outcome in public health policies around community infections? We have evidence that vaccines reduce risk but not prevent LC. We have no evidence on effect of antivirals on LC…