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May 24 25 tweets 7 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 80-88. The past 9 days has seen one of the most fluid periods to date in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The most significant developments have been the surrender of Ukrainian forces in Mariupol & the Russian breakthrough around Popasna. #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine
2/ Weather Outlook. Forecast for the next 10 days will see reduced cloud cover with little inclement weather; favorable conditions for air & artillery strikes as well as ground assaults. Wind speed and direction will reduce the effectiveness of artillery strikes in general.
3/ Kharkiv OD. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has likely stalled due to recent Russian spoiling attacks in the Ternova & Rubizhne area. Russian forces retain a shallow 10km strip of occupied territory on the border within artillery range of Kharkiv. #Kharkiv
4/ Russia likely intends to maintain a presence west bank of the Siverskyi Donets rather than use the length of the river as natural obstacle Ukrainian forces must cross. With a bridgehead already over the river at Staryi Saltiv, Ukrainian forces can still threaten Vovchansk.
5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Despite continued heavy losses in the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD, Russian forces have successfully achieved a localized breakthrough in the Popasna area as well as numerous incremental gains along the Izium & Lyman axes & between Horlivka & Donetsk.
6/ The Russian MoD allocated a small operational maneuver group (OMG) of its most capable forces to punch through the secondary Popasna defensive line and exploit this breach toward Soladar in the west and Lysychansik to the north, likely with the intent of forming a cauldron.
7/ Russian forces appear to be leveraging the advantage of Luhansk’s dense rail network to keep forward forces adequately supplied. The OMG in Popasna has made better use of combined arms, a doctrinal approach to breaching prepared defenses, and integrating new combat assets.
8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian & Ukrainian activity in the Zaporizhzhia OD has increased over the past week. Between Marinka & Vuhledar Russian units launched a series of assaults that captured a few small towns & villages in the Novomykhaillvka area. #Melitopol #hulyaipole
9/ Russian MoD reports that it defeated a counterattack by 2x Ukrainian battalion’s between Hulyaipole & Malynivka on 16 May. Ukrainian sources report an increased presence of Russian troops & equipment in Polohy, likely for a renewed push towards Orikhiv.
10/ Partisan activity remains active and disruptive in Russian occupied areas, particularly Melitopol & Enerhodar. Russian occupation authorities in Melitopol claim guerillas have attacked artillery & air defense systems throughout the region.
11/ Azovstal. After 86 days of resistance, Ukrainian forces surrendered to Russian forces in the Azovstal Steel Plant on orders of the Ukrainian Government. Although these troops are meant to be part of a prisoner exchange it is unclear is Russia will honor that commitment.
12/ Odesa-Kherson OD. There has been little combat activity in the Kherson-Odesa OD over the past week. Ukrainian & Russian efforts have mostly focused on improving their tactical positioning. Russian authorities continue to solidify control over the population of Kherson Oblast.
13/ Black Sea OTMO. The Russian blockade of Odesa continues. The Black Seas Fleet remains active in the western Black Sea to interdict shipping in and out of Odesa, as well as conduct cruise missile strikes against critical Ukrainian infrastructure throughout Ukraine.
14/ Aerospace Assessment. VKS sorties are averaging 250 for a 24-hrs period. Close air support of units operating the Donbas has substantially increased, particularly in the Lyman area. Recent VKS losses include 2x fighter jets (unknown type), 2x helicopters, & 12x UAVs.
15/ Battle Damage Assessment. Anecdotal reporting and generalized statements by Ukrainian/Russian officials of combat losses along the Izium-Lyman-Severdonetsk-Popasna line of operation state a high rate of losses in both troops & equipment among Russian & Ukrainian forces.
16/ Ukrainian TV, Day 80-88. Russia is attempting to place intense pressure on Africa and those parts of Asia that depend on Ukrainian Wheat exports in a likely attempt to force the restart of negotiations. Italy has introduced a 4-point plan to the UN for an end to hostilities.
17/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees total 8.95+ million with 6.79+ million in countries bordering Ukraine, another 2.146+ throughout Europe. Internally displaced people throughout Ukraine remains at 7.6+ million (1.4+ million in east & 519K in south Ukraine).
18/ Info War. Russian authorities & media have been using the surrender of Azovstal to claim the defenders of Mariupol as “fascists” who should be tried for war crimes. This narrative was present during the CSTO meeting to try & illicit military support from its member states.
19/ Information Advantage. The address of Polish President Andrzej Duda during his visit to Kyiv supporting Ukraine’s war aim to liberate all its territory from Russian occupation has wide public support in Western nations, counter to recent suggestion to negotiate a ceasefire.
20/ Overall Assessment. Russia’s push against Severodonetsk will likely determine the success or failure of this current phase of the war. Russian failure to secure the borders of Luhansk & at least make a meaningful advance into Donetsk risks not achieving the Kremlin’s aims.
21/ As stated previously, the breakthrough at Popasna has been the result of a better application of doctrinal methodologies and the integration of new combat assets (like BMPT AFV) that has allowed Russian forces to maneuver more effectively and outflank Ukrainian defenses.
22/ Likewise, supporting this has been a missing element of Russian offensive capability, effective supply of sustained combat operations. The Popasna OMG has remained effective largely in part because it has been better supplied than previous Russian offensives.
23/ However, the stability of the Russian breakout from Popasna depends on the long-term coherence of this OMGs logistic sustainment. Otherwise it will be unable to make gains for much longer, let alone create a cauldron in Severodonetsk that forces Ukraine forces to withdraw.
24/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of OSINT sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
25/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements. END

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More from @JominiW

May 14
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 77-79. The past 72 hrs has seen the Ukrainian military press the advantages made by their limited Kharkiv counteroffensive to push Russian forces into the Belgorod Oblast. Russian offensive action along the Siverskyi Donets Line has achieved little success. Image
2/ Weather. Forecast for the next 10 days will see increased rainstorms & cloud cover, severely degrading air & artillery strikes and ground assaults. Wind speed and direction will favor Ukrainian artillery strikes, however. Rainfall will continue to restrict movement to roads. Image
3/ Kharkiv OD. Russian forces have been thoroughly defeated north of Kharkiv. Russia has been conducting a fighting withdrawal since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive rather than trying to establishing a new defensive line. #UkraineRussianWar #Kharkiv Image
Read 25 tweets
May 11
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 73-76. The past 100 hours has seen the Ukrainian military expand on the initial success of its limited counteroffensive around Kharkiv. Russia’s offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line has generally stalled, with limited successes in Popasna. #UkraineWar Image
2/ Weather Impact. Cloudy skies and frequent rainstorms will degrade air & artillery strikes as well as ground assaults. Increased rain and humidity will make off road movement difficult, while daily temps (15-22 C) will not be hot enough to dry out mud. Image
3/ Kharkiv OD. Ukraine’s limited counteroffensive of in the Kharkiv area continues to make solid progress. Russian forces have been pushed into a thin strip of territory averaging only 10km in depth. This OD is in danger of collapsing similarly to the Kyiv & Sumy fronts. #Kharkiv Image
Read 22 tweets
May 7
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 67-72. The past 6 days has seen Ukrainian forces execute a limited counteroffensive north & northeast of Kharkiv that has produced significant results. Russian forces continue to struggle to gain ground from Izium to Popasna. #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine
2/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for east Ukraine shows temps (16-24 C) will continue to slowly dry out areas with extensive mud, slightly improving offroad movement. However, mud still restricts movement to roads. Rain & cloud cover slightly degrades air & UAV operations.
3/ Kharkiv OD. Ukraine’s limited counteroffensive of 02-05 May north & NE of Kharkiv threatens to push Russian forces back across the border into Belgorod. Russian forces in the Kharkiv OD are to spread out and weak to reverse recent Ukrainian gains. #Kharkiv
Read 24 tweets
May 4
1/ Analyzing Breakthrough Operations in the Donbas. Today I take a little closer look at the state of operations along the line of operations ranging from Izium to Popasna in east Ukraine to gain a better understanding of what it will take to achieve a decisive breakthrough. Image
2/ This small study utilizes data, discussions, & insights from the following sources & is indebted to their amazing work: @HN_Schlottman, @TheStudyofWar, @Militarylandnet, @AggregateOsint, @HelloMrBond, @War_Mapper, @KofmanMichael, @dupuyinstitute, among many others.
3/ This is not a prediction, but a brief analysis of what seems to be the overall direction of operations by the Russian military in what is clearly the decisive terrain in east Ukraine – the convex line running from Izium through Siverskyi Donets to the Severondontsk Salient.
Read 25 tweets
May 1
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 65-66. The 48hrs has seen Russian forces continue their integrated offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. UKR forces have executed several successful counterattacks around Kharkiv. #WarinUkraine #UkraineRussianWar #Ukraine
2/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for eastern Ukraine favors Russian offensive operations. Steady higher temps (17-23 C) will continue to dry out areas with extensive mud, slightly improving offroad movement. Cloud cover will not degrade VKS sorties or UAV operations.
3/ Kharkiv OD. Ukrainian forces continue to conduct successful counterattacks to the north and east of Kharkiv, slowly pushing Russian forces toward the Russian border and Siverskyi Donets. Russian forces in the area are not adequate to slow Ukrainian attacks. #Kharkiv #Lozova
Read 20 tweets
Apr 29
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 58-64. The past week has seen Russian forces initiate an integrated offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. Assaults resume against the Azovstal Metallurgical Zone; UKR forces execute several spoiling attacks. #WarinUkriane
2/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for eastern Ukraine favors Russian offensive operations. Partly cloudy skies will not degrade VKS sorties or UAV operations. Higher temps (16-21 C) will start to dry out areas with extensive mud, slightly improving offroad movement.
3/ Kharkiv OD. The Ukrainian General Staff estimates at least 7x BTGs of 6th CAA & Baltic / Northern Fleet Naval Infantry blocking Kharkiv and screening Russian movements east of the Siverskyi Donets. #Kharkiv
Read 25 tweets

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