UK-EU trade war would be “shocking” & “unnecessary” Taoiseach Micheál Martin tells BBC at #WEF22 saying he did not want to detail and “hopefully” will not have to contemplate EU tariffs against UK exports… urging negotiators to “get in the tunnel” bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
On who is threatening a trade war
Why object to red-green channel
On what is responsible for fall in GB-Ireland trade
& “enormous help” of a veterinary agreement #WEF2022
NEW: @MichealMartinTD says to me on @bbcnewsnight
“hasn't been engagement by UK on the detail…ECJ wasn't, or isn't core issue in terms of unionism”
Red & Green channels sound plausible?
“get involved in discussions. you can't, ignore and not reciprocate (sefcovic plans)”
Taoiseach:
“Britain signed up to this deal…”
But you knew that it wouldn’t be acceptable to unionism?
“There are mechanisms in the Protocol to resolve issues that haven’t been fully used, and if they had we might not be in this situation” #newsnight
“regret to say, I'm not so sure people thought through implications for Good Friday Agreement when Brexit was put forward”
But net result of these threats is that unionism might be turned away from GFA & Protocol?
“only threat here” is the UK one to tear up an international deal
Taoiseach: “Nobody wants a trade war… it would be shocking and totally unnecessary”
But what are we talking about? The EU targeting politically sensitive UK exports?
“Im not going to get into the detail of that” hopefully won’t have to contemplate… #newsnight
Martin: “get down there & negotiate..get trade people involved”
Think UK Govt playing fair?
“I don’t. I don’t think this is fair. Unilateral legislation not correct behaviour. When countries sign an international treaty it should mean something” not discarded in “cavalier manner”
Taoiseach: “I told Uk PM, leaders of France & Germany don’t want minute checks on everything going into NI, want to resolve this”
“We’re not overplaying our hand, hardly playing our hand.
Britain our closest neighbour and friend… no agenda in Ireland, to pick a row with UK”
Me: GB-ROI trade has been hit
Taoiseach:
“has been hit a bit somewhat. And I think that's because …the UK perhaps was not as well prepared for it.”
So you’re blaming that on Britain?
“not all of it, but it's just a fact Brexit means the disruption of trade” #Newsnight
Taoiseach: “we should work out a veterinary agreement that would help enormously. there are ways of solving this. no doubt about that. I've been at pains to say this to my good friends of the British government that there are ways to solve this, if the will is there to solve it.”
NEW Taoiseach @MichealMartinTD : “I haven't been clear that the will is actually there to resolve this [from UK]. And as I say, we're not clear on the landing zone in terms of what would satisfy the UK Government in the end.” #Newsnight
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Might remember I cornered Rwandan President Paul Kagame in January and asked if UK would get money back if no migrants were transferred to Rwanda… answer revealed today: Govt paid £715m so far until June of this year
“not recoverable under the terms of the Treaty”
terms of Rwanda deal are quite something…
In addition to £715m already paid, Treaty another £100m is due (will it be paid?)
also envisaged £120m bonus after 300 refugees “transferred”. And £20k per person payment.
And then further £150k per migrant payment over 5 years
IF a relocated migrant then relocated from Rwanda, UK government would then pay Rwanda £10k for that onward relocation (instead of the last payments above)
Treasury effectively confirms debt rule loosening, by announcing its new “guardrails” to channel capital spending goes to a 10 year pipeline of major projects that generate economic returns that will help “depoliticise infrastructure”
Their view is independent accountable bodies, either new or given new powers will set & implement a 10 year infrastructure strategy integrated with 2 year spending reviews, and audit this, and assess value for money ensuring capital investment generates clear long term returns…
Ministers now openly call the impact of the Sunak debt rule “a mistake”, that it constrained some much needed public infrastructure investment, while not stopping bad investment in failing projects… capital needs to be properly quality controlled not arbitrarily constrained
“One monopolist serves as a gatekeeper for the delivery of nearly all live music in America today”
- US Govt’s attempt to break up Live Nation-Ticketmaster announced in May in a court filing is quite a document… “platinum” pricing is mentioned 5 times … #Ticketonomics
Live Nation itself said this year that platinum pricing was in its 5th innings in the US but “in its first” in Europe and their intention to apply it “all along the way” until the concert “gates open up” is a “multi year opportunity to grow our top line/ bottom line”…
CEO Michael Rapino said earlier this year ”it’s just pricing smarter” & “it’s a skill” where LN/ Ticketmasters in-house team “works with artists, agents, managers” to “price the fronts better so the back sells out”… “rolling this around world” is “the great growth opportunity”
NAO confirms that HS2 without phase 2 will result in trains with less space between Manchester and Birmingham than current west Coast services, and might require demand management to dissuade passengers… bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…
Non-consensus view, but having sunk the costs of phase 1, and then committed to the hybrid bill for HS2 north… the cost benefit ratio of completing the bit between Manchester airport and Birmingham will be very high… would require political consensus to be re-established though
Who can forget the Perm Sec’s amazing document from last year.. the strategic case on rebalancing Britain “no longer applies”
Shadow Chancellor Jeremy Hunt acknowledges to @bbclaurak when asked if Conservatives had won whether there would have been tax cuts in Autumn that “we wouldn’t have been able to do it immediately, no”
…
most notable thing re: Chancellor interview with Laura is this unusual Treasury analysis due in next fortnight which will “look at the state of the public services, the state of the public finances…public spending pressures we are under”
Q: why isnt the OBR doing this?
While fiscally eventful, it is not going to be a “fiscal event”… when first announced by Chancellor on her first Monday in office it sounded more like an audit of stalled spending and impact on public services, than an audit of the public finances…
Reassuringly, @demishassabis tells Blair at the @InstituteGC conference that Artificial Intelligence is only at the IQ level of a cat right now.. [although that is changing rapidly - surely will exceed humans in many tasks in this Parliament] 🐈⬛
Interesting to think Blair as PM famously never used his computer, or rarely did so…
Also has the scars, as it were, from that failed NHS IT contract… if only that had succeeded…
Interesting to know if this Govt is conscious of the ghosts of that and of botched PFI deals.
Chancellor’s Mais lecture did have sense of learning from some setbacks during the Blair era … havent seen a good analysis tho of where eg record on PFI and the NHS IT contract [perhaps Horizon too] forms part of this govt’s memory.