1. This is a very good @CrisisGroup report on the overall dynamics of the conflict in eastern #Congo and insanely informative, but its brief description of the ADF leaves a lot to be desired. crisisgroup.org/africa/great-l…
2. For instance, talking about “factions” within the group adds unnecessary detail. While there is indeed an anti-IS splinter faction, it likely has less than 30 people, has not conducted an attack (as of May 2022), and one of its top leaders was arrested earlier this year.
3. Meanwhile, ADF proper has over 2,000 fighters, is one of the most active groups in all of #Congo, and alone killed 1300 people last year. Not to mention, it is unified in its leadership and allegiance to the Islamic State. The splinter is operationally irrelevant.
4. These relatively minor points are not meant to detract from the overall report - I just think analysts should be clear about attaching unnecessary importance to ADF’s splinter faction. The ADF is, by and large, unified around its central leadership and loyalty to IS.
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1. Pleased to share my new long-form report @CTCWP providing a history and explainer of how and why al-Qaeda in northwestern Africa went from an Algerian-focused franchise to now threatening several littoral West African states. ctc.westpoint.edu/aqims-imperial…
2. Basically, if you were to tell someone from 2006 that Algeria's Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat now threatens Benin or Ivory Coast, they'd be properly perplexed. This report sets out to explain exactly this dynamic to this hypothetical time-traveler.
3. This report thus argues that AQ, including or through its various local franchises, engaged in 5 basic tactics as part of its proverbial playbook: befriending or creating militant groups; local integration; grievance exploitation; dealing with dissent, and expansion.
1. Since June, the ADF / Islamic State Central Africa Province has mounted a sustained offensive in southern #Irumu#Ituri#DRC pushing further north towards Komanda. This represents a significant shift and expansion of its traditional AO in #Beni territory of #NorthKivu.
2. While most of its efforts are along RN4 between Eringeti and Komanda, it has also mounted a significant targeted campaign near Boga and Tshabi, also in southern #Ituri, killing and kidnapping nearly 100 people in this same timeframe. All of this data is available @KivuSecurity
3. Meanwhile, the Islamic State has heavily publicized the offensive along RN4, claiming 5 operations alongside 18 exclusive photos and one video. The pictures also detail the ADF's brief occupations of the villages of Ofai and Maniala, just a few kms south of Komanda.
1. Jihadists in #Syria are reporting that Abu Saloh, the founder and former emir of the Uzbek group Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad (now part of HTS), was arrested by HTS' internal security yesterday after he reportedly defected to Jabhat Ansar al Din.
2. Abu Saloh left his position as emir of KTJ sometime last year, opting for more behind the scenes work and preaching. He founded the group in late 2014. Which I covered back in the day: thelineofsteel.weebly.com/news/katibat-a…