Thread by @anlomedad

"Cascading impacts of disasters create serious difficulties for risk management and risk- sharing actors. It is increasingly clear that small-scale events can trigger consequences at a high level in systems, often through complex chains of events. #femtorisk "
It gets even better

undrr.org/gar2022-our-wo…
"When global collapse risk is analysed according to the 9 planetary boundaries, scenarios ... show a dangerous tendency for the world to move towards a global collapse scenario."

"Sustainable and risk-aware development pathways can prevent the creation of risk, but the challenge is how to make that happen in the everyday decisions of communities and policymakers. Modelling tools need decision makers who understand their uses and their limitations"

"At a local level, development planning is made up of many small and large decisions in particular circumstances, and the challenge is to engage with those decisions in the context of known planetary boundaries as well as with a risk reduction frame of mind."

For IAM modellers and automotive "sustainability researchers":
"Current development pathways need to be adjusted. The global material footprint pc needs to reduce. To foster sust. development for all, countries need to consider how energy AND products are produced AND consumed"

"Sustainable development pathways need to be premised on more sust. consumption patterns that guarantee the provision of basic needs..., while avoiding those unsustainable actions that are hazardous to the environment, and which are inefficient and contribute to systemic risk."

"Creating a full-system conception needs to tie together many specialized experts, subsystems and sciences, requiring that analysts and policymakers try to understand how everything is connected ‼️ and everything is continuously transforming. Uncovering systemic risk entails an

understanding of how events ... in one domain trigger events in neighbouring domains, thereby causing possible cascading crises throughout the entire system, like falling dominoes."

I've begun to realize: this kind of thinking is not normal and ppl don't know if they can't do it

"Basic approach to network modelling is as follows: data sets are converted to network information that identifies nodes and links and this data is used in combination with knowledge of how shocks propagate in that specific system, which makes it possible to compute systemic

risk.
This is often done in a framework of “agent-based modelling”, where analysts can control and set hypothetical scenarios for triggering events or policy interventions."

Sounds like another IAM, basically. Integrated Collapse Assessment😁, designed to be trusted and fail.😁

Hm. Could continue forever tweeting snippets of the report.
The topic is very important.
And there are are helpful examples (Bangkok, Fukushima, Iceland Banks etc) for system collapse due to bad actors and myopic decision making.
But I think, being so close to collapse now

means, we don't have the time, or for my part, the faith, to create a digital replica of the complex human system and external natural factors.
Better identify people at all levels who see the web intuitively and make decisions accordingly, brave enough to err on the safe side.

I've begun to realize: this kind of thinking is not normal and ppl don't know if they can't do it. Also it doesn't seem to come naturally with a quick brain (old speak: an IQ >130).
I begin to assume, it depends on the personality: a caring, curious, conserv-ing character?

Maybe, the primary goal someone uses their (quick) brain for decides, whether or not they have the potential to be a risk-aware systems thinker and disaster-avoidance-planner.
If I were an official on EU-level, I'd design a holistic personality test to urgently find these types.

Summary of 1 particular paper contributing to the🌐 report: bylinetimes.com/2022/05/26/un-…
The paper:undrr.org/publication/gl… Like with IAM. He sets parameters for 4 scenarios. Then: "The crossing of 1 planetary boundary systematically results in the crossing of others”. No shit sherlock