Thyborg Profile picture
May 29 19 tweets 11 min read
Three major considerations for successful crypto trading:
- assessment of the protocol
- assessment of the token
- timing of the purchase

A thorough explanation on my investment framework, applied to Cosmos tokens 🧵
The purpose of this thread is to explain the methodology I use to rank Cosmos protocols & tokens in the following document
Let's get the timing out-of-the-way first: in the context of investing, it means the decision of when to purchase or sell a particular asset

That decision must factor in the macro-economic situation, the roadmap, the upcoming milestones etc.
Recent Cosmos examples of good timing include:
- buying $ROWAN prior to #Sifchain PMPT
- buying $STARS prior to the marketplace launch
- buying $EVMOS prior to the #Osmosis listing
While timing is absolutely critical in a short to medium term strategy, its importance fades in the longer term

Timing the market is hard & isn't part of the reports, but I do share regular "Cosmos alpha" threads w/ potential trading signals
The reports include, however, both a protocol assessment and a token assessment

It is of major importance to understand the difference between these two assessments so let's break it down in details:
The protocol assessment includes four elements:

1- the total addressable market (TAM) representing the revenue opportunity available to the protocol

2- the vision & strategy to solve the problem of the target market, the current traction & the differentiation from competitors
3- the expertise & capabilities of the team to execute on their vision and market & sell the protocol efficiently

4- the reputation & strength of the financial backers of the protocol as well as their ability to help the team execute
A good protocol doesn't mean a good token, and #Terra's fall is a great example of this dichotomy:
- Trillion USD stable coin market & active L1
- Great "decentralised" money value prop
- Amazing execution from Do Kwon & TFL
- Solid backers w/ Delphi, Hashed & Jump
The $LUNA token, however, was tied to the ability of $UST to maintain its peg and got quickly minted into oblivion as soon as the system started failing
The token assessment uses the protocol assessment because the TAM, solution, team & investors definitely have an effect on the token's performance

Yet it is important to recognise that a good protocol doesn't automatically spell profit for investors
Consider this example:

@akashnet_ is one the most interesting project in all of crypto

But $AKT has been in a downtrend since Sept-2021, including as $BTC was making all-time highs in Nov & Dec Image
@akashnet_ So the token assessment takes into account four other elements:

1- Value-accrual is the ability of the token to capture the economic value of the protocol.

E.g @SecretNetwork usage brings value to $SCRT because it is required for gas fees
@akashnet_ @SecretNetwork 2- Utility is the quantity & strength of the token's use cases

E.g $OSMO is used to secure @osmosiszone blockchain, to provide liquidity on the #Osmosis DEX and soon to pay for transaction fees
@akashnet_ @SecretNetwork @osmosiszone 3- A fair distribution is important to protect new holders from being used as exit liquidity from early investors

E.g low initial float and short unlock schedules for VCs made most of Solana token charts look as depressing as $ATLAS Image
@akashnet_ @SecretNetwork @osmosiszone 4- A reasonable inflation schedule protects long-term holders from dilution of their stake in the protocol & typically lead to better price performance

E.g @Fortisoeconomia on #Juno is an example of an extreme inflation schedule leading the $BFOT token to loose all of its value Image
@akashnet_ @SecretNetwork @osmosiszone @Fortisoeconomia The token list already includes king $ATOM based on the thread below. Other blue-chips will be added in the coming weeks
@akashnet_ @SecretNetwork @osmosiszone @Fortisoeconomia The protocol list already includes the @inter_protocol from the @agoric team (although the protocol's token is a stable)
@akashnet_ @SecretNetwork @osmosiszone @Fortisoeconomia @inter_protocol @agoric And since I'll be relentlessly covering the rest of the Cosmos ecosystem through educative & digestible threads on governance proposals, airdrops, tokens, teams & projects, you may consider retweeting this & giving me a follow @Thyborg_ ✌️

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More from @Thyborg_

May 31
Unlike most (if not all) other L1s, #Cosmos doesn't have a core team ; yet over the last year, the ecosystem managed to ship ground-breaking tech after ground-breaking tech at a stunning pace. This is what decentralised software development looks like in the Cosmos 🧵 Image
@interchain_io is a minimalistic (less than 10 persons total) Swiss foundation whose primary role is to provide funding to the Core contributors

The Foundation holds the trademark for "Cosmos", "Interchain" and a couple of terms

Key people include @billyrennekamp & @crainbf
@interchain_io @billyrennekamp @crainbf @informalinc has a team of 50 engineers working on Cosmos core features, in particular IBC & Tendermint, and is leading the charge on Interchain security

Key people include @buchmanster, @ArianneFlemming, @zarinjo & @JTremback
Read 12 tweets
May 30
This is round 5 of weekly Cosmos alpha: the news, rumours & upcoming events that have the potential to move the price of specific Cosmos coins in the short to medium term, and for which forward-looking investors might want to prepare in advance 🧵
Keep in mind that all of the information in this thread is pure speculation and definitely not financial advice

For an explanation of my general investment framework, check out
With that out-the-way, @kava_platform deployed its EVM-compatible co-chain last week, and now expecting 35 protocols to deploy shortly.

It wouldn't surprise me if generous rewards on wKava lead to some positive price performance

And maybe some airdrops for $KAVA stakers Image
Read 8 tweets
May 19
Interchain security will be the most significant #Cosmos upgrade since IBC last year ; once it's implemented & sufficiently publicised, every new crypto project with ambition will at least consider starting their Cosmos chain. The why & the how 🧵
Cosmos is already the world leader in interoperable smart-contract blockchain, and has been since 2016.

The Tendermint consensus & the Cosmos SDK power close to 30 sovereign, scalable & configurable chains connected through IBC
Up until now, chains had to form their own validator set & create a staking token to secure the network, meaning only a small subset of a teams with the time & technical expertise could use the Cosmos stack

Think #Terra, #Osmosis, #SecretNetwork, #Juno etc.
Read 14 tweets
May 17
Based on the public info, the current #Terra scorecards look something like this:
1. TFL, up close to a billion
2. LFG, up 87 millions
3. VCs, it depends
4. Retail & others, down billions
A quick review 👇
Note that this is only being discussed & assessed in the court of public opinions, so take it w/ a grain of salt.

Also TFL & LFG could easily use their stack to compensate users or grow Terra v2, so I'm personally reserving judgment until after they formalise their plans
$LUNA had several funding rounds from well-known VC firms like Delphi Digital, Hashed, Arrington Capital etc. in 2018 & 2019. The total was around $50M and the tokens sold under $0.8
Read 12 tweets
May 17
Yesterday @DeanTribble & @zmanian introduced $IST at the @Gateway_Conf in Prague. Difficult to imagine a better timing to present an over-collateralised IBC-native stable 🌕 here's my summary of the mechanics of the Inter protocol 🧵
@DeanTribble @zmanian @Gateway_Conf $IST is the latest Cosmos stable to position itself in the starting blocks for the $UST replacement race & you can check out the others here (the list is missing $SILK on @SecretNetwork & $USDX on the @kava_platform & I'll cover both separately)
@DeanTribble @zmanian @Gateway_Conf @SecretNetwork @kava_platform Inter is a protocol on @agoric, a highly-anticipated IBC-enabled chain built on top of Tendermint. Agoric clearly deserves its own thread but the core value proposition is to let developers write smart-contract in JavaScript, the most dominant scripting language of the internet
Read 15 tweets
May 16
If #Juno becomes the new home of the #Terra dApps, it's likely that some Terra's validators will look to join the active set & #LUNAtics will need to figure out where to delegate ; so I thought it'd be interesting to look at the revenue of the validators on #Juno 🧵
(If you're not sure why Juno is a compelling host candidate for the Terra projects, this thread on CosmWasm might be interesting)
The average validator revenue on Juno is around $33,000 per month (mid-May 2022, Bitcoin around $30,000).

It was around $48,000 in early May with Bitcoin at $38,000, and $200,000 at Juno all-time (early March)
Read 11 tweets

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