Thread by @Usherwood

I know it's not high on anyone's list of priorities in Westminster right now, but briefly let's do #VONC and #Brexit

tl;dr short-term pause in hostile words/action, but scope for more grief

1/

While the vote is happening, no policy is happening, so mooted publication of NIP disapplication bill is on hold for now

2/

All the noises today have been about other aspects of Johnson's leadership, with both him and critics pushing 'Brexit got done', so it's not the main space for contestation

3/

That suggests if Johnson wins, then unlikely to push NIP aggravation to build support

4/

None of the obvious replacements are going hard on Brexit, either in collapsing NIP or in resetting, so most likely to just drift into background

5/

Indeed, post-Johnson it might make most sense to frame him as 'Brexit Guy', to allow for very passive rebuilding of EU policy and escape from DUP-courting

6/

'Boris did a great job securing Brexit: now we move on to focusing on things like cost of living' would be the line here

7/

Of course, leaving Brexit on the table also means someone might pick it up and use it

Certain sections of the party might love someone promising to collapse NIP, especially if there's not much else to differentiate candidates

8/

Given history of Tories endlessly returning to the European Question, this has to be a non-negligible risk

9/

Maybe final point is that once again, EU/Brexit policy is likely to be driven by party political needs, not UK strategic interests

Which is great for my research, but much less good for anything else

/end