@HealthyFla@IHME_UW@Steph_Colombini 3. First, we should understand the immense challenge facing epidemiologists (and others) at county and state health departments.
Underreporting of cases, inadequate testing, missing COVID deaths...were universal problems.
Context does not absolve anyone from the problems that existed, but it improves understanding, and ultimately avoids the deleterious mischaracterization of root causes/motivations for why issues arose.
@HealthyFla@IHME_UW@Steph_Colombini 5. Too often, we project too much of how we feel about the extent to which an overall jurisdictional response meets our expectations onto everything that has to do with the activities of agencies within those jurisdictions.
We assume damn hard-working scientists are bad actors.
@HealthyFla@IHME_UW@Steph_Colombini 6. For those of you who have [for some odd reason] been paying attention to me for a while now, this perspective is nothing new for me.
Below is a link to a video from just over 1 yr ago where I express some of these sentiments and why it matters to me.
@HealthyFla@IHME_UW@Steph_Colombini 7. Look, this is not to in any way ignore or lessen the challenges we've had with understanding the state of the pandemic in Florida OR ANYWHERE ELSE, whether it's data availability, accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.
We can, should, and [hopefully] will do better.
@HealthyFla@IHME_UW@Steph_Colombini 8. But I am now very familiar with the amazing accomplishments of public health (and other) professionals in underfunded, underappreciated, oft-criticized state agencies.
When we address the results of the challenges they've faced, in any jurisdiction, they just deserve CONTEXT.
@HealthyFla@IHME_UW@Steph_Colombini 9. I, for one, am immensely impressed with the epidemiology team at @HealthyFla, am thankful for them addressing my MANY questions during the pandemic, which has allowed me to provide service to people of Florida and elsewhere, whether by my dashboard, research, or media efforts.
@HealthyFla@IHME_UW@Steph_Colombini 10. That's all - despite all there is to legitimately grumble about - I get a bit frustrated when I feel there is a singling out despite something being a more widespread issue.
Thank you for entertaining (or ignoring) my brief Tuesday morning semi-rant.
1. I'm still waiting for an update of the Community Transmission levels needed to run my typical risk levels analysis, but here's where we'll be with the hospital-based measures.
2. Here's how things have changed from last week.
Blue is improvement
Red is worsening
Gray is no change
3. Another way of looking at the change in levels from last week
1. My goodness - the @nytimes story by David Leonhardt this morning
"Covid has killed a smaller percentage of Black, Latino or Asian Americans over the past year than white Americans. TO DENY THAT REALITY is to miss an important part of the Covid story."
2. Depending on what race/ethnic-specific population estimates you use, if you look at COVID deaths from May 1, 2021 to April 30, 2022 ("the past year")
You could actually find a higher crude mortality rate among NH-Whites compared to NH-Blacks and Hispanics.
But...why?
3. You see, just as you shouldn't compare crude rates among states with different age distributions (e.g., FL vs. Utah)...
...you shouldn't do it when comparing race/ethnic groups with SUBSTANTIALLY different age distributions.
1. Due to popular request, I have added two tabular visualizations to my dashboard that facilitates assessment of the relative position of your state/jurisdiction on case-based and hospitalization-based COVID-19 measures over time.
2. Screenshot is hard to read, but this viz (#7) shows state rankings from 1 (best) to 52 (worst) on cases per capita over the most recent 7-day window.
NY state & NYC appear separately since that's how they are reporting for cases.
Can select any combo of states to view.
3. This viz (#11) shows state rankings from 1 (best) to 51 (worst) on 13 hospital metrics over the most recent 7-day window.
NY state & NYC are combined since that's how they are reporting for hospitalizations.
Can view any combo of states. I've selected the 4 largest below.
2. Transmission is still pronounced with only 2% of Americans living in a county that is not classified as "substantial" or "high" level of transmission.
3. Here are those same weekly trends, but instead of national totals, this is by state (% of population living in various level transmission areas)