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Jun 7 • 7 tweets • 7 min read
The mask drops!

Here is what #Turkey and #Russia want out of moving #grain from #Ukraine out of the Black Sea: Turkey wants a discount. Russia wants more warships and fewer mines.

Also, Russian spin is at full speed.

🧵Details below. Background note⬇️
Turkey wants a 25% discount on Ukrainian grain - Vahit Kirisci, the Turkish agriculture minister, said over the weekend.

Turkish news agency Anadolu reported that a command center in Istanbul would be established to oversee the grain operation.
Russia wants the removal of mines, particularly around the city of Odessa, which Russia has been eyeing for a naval landing for months. Ukraine is understandably reluctant.

theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
It could also be an excuse for Russia to shift naval vessels through the Turkish controlled straits. Here is some background on the Montreux Convention governing Turkey’s administration of the straits.



We can also begin to see Russia’s propaganda efforts at
1. Blaming Ukraine for not agreeing to Russian theft and awarding Russia a public relations victory.
2. The ‘west’ has done it too and so Russian created famine cannot be criticized.

🧵 Russian/Turkish motives moving grain in the Black Sea
@olegnikolenko_ @expatua @covertshores @josepborrellF @maria_avdv @greensquareac @ukrainesgrains @cliffordlevy @tashecon @elenaneroba @anders_aslund @rtperson3 @mariia_zolkina @kannbwx @powerusaid @kyleworton
@ninabyzantina
And finally, a thank you to a follower of mine who brought some of these points to my attention. 🙏

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More from @exit266

exit266 Profile picture
Jun 7
How is Russia pretending to save the world? 🧵

We’ve been hearing for nearly a week now that Turkey and Russia were in talks to open Ukrainian ports. Details have emerged and the proposal starts with Odessa.

iz.ru/1345376/2022-0…
More importantly this scheme reportedly includes “They will be escorted by Turkish ships to neutral waters. There, the ships will meet Russian ships and escort them to the Bosphorus.”
This scheme also hinges on “the Turkish military will be engaged in demining the coastal zone in the Odessa area.”

iz.ru/1344680/robert…
Read 11 tweets
exit266 Profile picture
May 24
Let’s put some perspective on this CNN story about Russia allegedly shipping Ukrainian grain out of Crimea.

cnn.com/2022/05/23/pol…
Claim 1, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry estimates that 400,000 tons has been stolen since the invasion. This is likely true but to put it in perspective, in April, Ukraine claims to have exported 763,000 tonnes.

ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/1-ukraine…
Now tonnes and tons are actually different measurements but let’s not get pedantic shall we, we’ll go with “The Ukraine Defense Ministry says that Russia has stolen just over half a month’s current grain exports.”
Read 11 tweets
exit266 Profile picture
May 17
There’s been a lot of discussion about agriculture in Ukraine in recent weeks and this thread will give you the basic info you need as a starting point.
Ukraine has 14.2 Million hectares of agricultural land in cereal production. As of May 13, they are behind in planted acres 22% when compared to 2021.

Starting in 2000 Ukraine’s Ag industry began modernizing, it’s been a slow process but updating agronomy practices enabled an increase in bushels per acre. In the last 20 years their fertilizer application increased four fold.
Read 18 tweets
exit266 Profile picture
May 11
The Soyuz pipeline and why you’d shut it down too if you owned it.

Gas TSO of Ukraine came out yesterday and said they were shutting down their LNG pipeline in NE Ukraine that feeds almost ⅓ of Europe.

tsoua.com/en/news/the-ac…
Specifically, they mentioned the GMS “Sokhranivka” and the border compressor station (CS) “Novopskov”. Both of these are in Russian occupied territories and while Gas TSO would have offsite access for monitoring, it’s likely their staff are no longer able to access either site.
Gas TSO told us there was “interference of the occupying forces in technical processes and changes in the modes of operation of GTS facilities, including unauthorized gas offtakes from the gas transit flows.” That’s right, the Russians are stealing LNG right off the pipeline.
Read 10 tweets

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