Some key points as we head into J6 hearings. The Capitol attack was 1) coordinated, 2) meant to be fast, and 3) derailed by a rapid police response that produced key delays. Watch here as democracy is saved by DC bike cops: momentum shifts after the first terrifying minutes. 1/
To make sense of the 5-hour attack on Jan 6, we’ve broken it into 8 phases. These diagrams can help understand. Here’s the first hour: the rush in (L), & then (R) the faceoff on the W. Plaza that bought precious time. 2/
The delay was followed by a frenzy of action - coordinated movements around the Capitol to breach doors on both sides, flood the interior. They got through 5 exterior doors & the Senate, were blocked at 2 & the House in violent fights. It almost worked - but it was too late. 3/
The invasion, though scary, failed quickly. Lawmakers evacuated one step ahead of invaders. Police got most doors closed quickly, and held at the tunnel. FBI SWAT arrived to help regain control. From this point, no more advances - just brutal fighting at the tunnel & N Doors. 4/
Was it reasonable to expect speed? The Capitol was nearly undefended on Jan 6 morning - possibly by design. For now let's just examine: what went wrong for attackers, how did that lifesaving delay happen? 5/
Over 200 Proud Boys gathered at the Washington Monument at 10 AM, then marched in a looping path around the Capitol. They stopped for photos, and for lunch. Bystanders heard them planning an attack. It was obvious to many, but unseen by officers at the Capitol. 6/
The DHS even issued an alert at 12:36 PM, while the Proud Boys were stopped at the food trucks for lunch: “There are approximately 300 Proud Boys at the Capitol”. But there was no call yet for support. 7/
The W. Capitol was quiet on Jan 6 - until it suddenly wasn’t. The Proud Boys arrived at 12:48 PM, crowds streaming in with them. Within 5 minutes, hundreds had gathered and the attack was launched. Note the flaggers keeping the north and south walkways sync’d. 8/
The few hundred people were enough to overwhelm the handful of officers. By 12:59 PM, the mob had broken onto the W. Pa, but the first USCP armored units were arriving, and USCP Chief Sund put out the call for help. 9/
By 1:05 PM, just as the Joint Session to certify the electoral vote began, a man with a “crusader” hat and a megaphone was reading a prepared speech from the tower. “My fellow Americans..” 10/
Five minutes later, officers were nearly overwhelmed. Proud Boy Pezzola (#Spazzo) seized a riot shield. The Proud Boys leadership (Biggs, Nordean, Rehl) gathered under the dominionists’ cross. About 1/3 of the mob was Proud Boys (marked in red). It was almost enough. 11 /
On the surrounding streets, people who had left Trump’s speech early were streaming toward the Capitol. But working their way through the crowd was an MPD unit - biking in. 12/
Less than 14 minutes after the call for help, the MPD were on the Plaza and rushed to the line. They have practice at crowd control: watch them smoothly deploy barricades and start pushing attackers back. 13/
You can see in how much the momentum had turned in before and after images. Top photo is 1:05 PM, bottom is 1:15 PM - 3 minutes after MPD arrived, 1 minute after the tower flagger sent panicked signals to someone in the crowd. The attack was stalled, and police were gaining. 14/
We think “invasion phase” continued for a bit longer, that there was still hope, since at 1:20 PM, flaggers began an organized movement East. That’s the little loop here - but it’s called off within a minute. (Note: the straight line is a medical team who handled CPR + evacs) 15/
Moments after the movement starts, more USCP arrive, some decision was made, and the flaggers lead everyone back. The planned Eastward movement won’t be completed for another half hour. That delay was critical - when breaches happened, police and FBI SWAT were on their way. 16/
The hearings are soon, so we'll stop for now, continue later. Just go in to them knowing: the attack was organized; the fast response by USCP and MPD bought precious time.
All maps & other resources, including timelines with video links, are at bit.ly/Jan6Analysis. 17/
The Resources document in that folder shows how to access and watch over 22,000 videos of the Jan 6 attack saved by the #SeditionHunters community. For video products - syncs and perp reels - see @StevieG54099097's Hunting Insurrectionists YT channel. 18/ youtube.com/c/HuntingInsur…
The Capitol attack was a messy mix: an army of Proud Boys; small crews with jobs; riled-up “normies”; bused-in groups to bulk up the crowd. It’s designed to hide what’s terrifying: the overall organization. This thread will show the hard-to-see signals that ran the action. 19/
We’d stepped through Phase I (“Invasion”) of the attack; it ended with police holding the W Plaza, the movement East aborted, the tower flagger panicking. We learn from reactions to crises. From this: some folks with jobs have no comms. If things go wrong, they wave for help. 20/
Also: many crews assist who are not Proud Boys. #LittleManSprayer on the tower (L) is a 3Per from WA (ex-meth user), #BumbleGoggles on the NW lawn (R) is militia from VA (fought with media). Both talked on camera, unwisely, but since they don’t know much, they aren’t a risk. 21/
Phase II, “Faceoff” starts at 1:21 PM in our scheme, once a movement East is called off. As battling police hold the W. Plaza with tear gas and flashbangs, Proud Boys pull back to wait it out, leaving the fighting to others. Intense efforts then start to build up the crowd. 22/
At 1:23 PM Joe Biggs’ group ditches. They need help getting over the wall; Fonticoba can’t climb it. (Sound up: “those are the Proud Boys”). Notice the two in plate carriers who help - they have comms and earpieces, never go forward. Would be easy to miss them 23/
As Biggs’ group stand around waiting, others also leave the front lines, fleeing tear gas. PB leader Rehl texts at 1:34 PM: “We’re at a standstill, cops are dropping concussion bombs and pepper spraying…” (See NYT piece for more). 24/ nytimes.com/video/us/polit…
We now see intense efforts to build the crowd. Alex Jones had hung back in Freedom Plaza, giving an impromptu speech. Now he gets some message, finally heads in at 1:34 PM. He seems nervous - he’s doing real-time CYA while his entourage films. 25/
The influencers start Tweeting instructions: "GET TO THE CAPITOL NOW !!!" This is the only time all day they tell their followers to move. (We checked - see Messages timeline.) 26/ docs.google.com/document/d/12e…
1:34-1:40 PM - men run back and forth across the W. lawn shouting “Move up!” “Come up, let’s keep moving up!” While the crowd’s been badgered all along by bullhorn guys, these runners appear only now, in over two hours of livestreams. 27/
1:39 PM: a streamer says “looks like twice the crowd” now as people arrive from Trump’s speech. Once new arrivals cross onto the lawn, they’re told where to go: “we need left, we need right - we need everybody filling those holes.” Building the Capitol mob took work. 28/
By 1:39 PM crews are also staging at the base of the NW Scaffolds, ready for the attack to resume: 16 Proud Boys in this photo. On the Media Tower, a man we call #CapitolColorGuard first appears - you’ll see more of him when attacks re-start. 29/
At 1:50 PM, as a streamer says: “it’s almost full”, #CapitolColorGuard abruptly climbs up, grabs a flag and waves. This marks the breach of the NW Scaffolds: watch the crowd on the Plaza surge northwards as a pathway suddenly opens. 30/
Here’s the breaking of the police line from close up - it’s fast and decisive. Proud Boy Dan “Milkshake” Scott is on the attack line, but ditches to the side quickly and cheers with other Proud Boys - they skip fighting whenever they can. Most of the PB leaders head up. 31/
We call this 1:50 PM breach the start of Phase III, “Breakthrough”. Once the Scaffolds go, the pressure’s on to get the crowd positioned around the Capitol, ready to flood it. Coordination is low-tech, but effective - we’ll show you. 32/
1:57 PM. The E breaches start; key perps have walked around the Capitol to run them. Proud Boys provide muscle, but the timing seems set by flaggers. We highlighted two who flag the start, then lead the crowd to the Capitol steps. (In blue is Michael Pope of ID, arrested.) 33/
There’s a problem: then crowd on the E. side is still too thin. On the NW lawn Alex Jones urges his audience to head East: tells them: “Trump will be speaking there”. It works - hear the livestreamer on the E. Plaza say “Alex Jones - we’re headed to his side of the Capitol.” 34/
On the SW lawn, there’s no celebrity to lead, but bullhorn guys get people moving. Info is passed by live-streamers who have radios & earpieces. “He wants people to start surrounding the building” “Yeah, we need to get people moving”. Sound up: listen. 35/
1:59 PM, West side: People aren’t the only things in motion. A giant Trump flag was waiting on the lawn, but watch the chain of events just as the E. Plaza falls: a telescoping flagpole pops up, #CapitolColorGuard waves the big flag forward, & helpers lift it onto the tower. 36/
2:03 PM: The #BigMediaTowerFlag unfurls, marking an all-out assault. #CapitolColorGuard waves, then points, and a furious attack begins on the SW Plaza. Some of the most violent are the Pollock family crew from FL. Jonathan Pollock fled from arrest, is still on the lam. 37/
2:06 PM, East side: back at the E. Steps, a flag is waved abruptly and the push on the police line begins. It succeeds - officers fall back and the mob rushes up the steps. A blue flagger cheers from the top, and Stop the Steal leader Michael Coudrey salutes from the balcony 38/
2:07 PM, East side: a man shakes out a Gadsden flag over the NE balcony, then fumbles trying to tie it down. This marks the steps breach. A half hour later, when he marks the doors breach with a symmetrical flag on the SE balcony, he’ll be faster: someone gives him zip ties. 39/
2:09 PM, West side: The mob had been waiting on the NW steps, but now suddenly rush forward and drive police back. The Proud Boys follow behind the leaders. Pezzola & others make a beeline for the unreinforced windows of the NW Courtyard. 40/
2:10 PM. While part of the crowd runs up the NW steps, the rest stream East, with key Proud Boys moving in a stack. It now becomes clear that Proud Boys are not the top dogs on Jan 6 - they have minders. Aaron James, ex-Navy, not a PB, leads them around the Capitol. 41/
2:13 PM. Proud Boy Pezzola breaks a window and the crowd stampedes in. While many seem aimless, some rush for the House and Senate, where lawmakers are still in their seats. (Only Pence has been evacuated.) Here’s the first 2 minutes at 4x speed, with key PBs highlighted. 42/
Police resistance on the W. Plaza saved us from disaster. It also helped us understand the Capitol attack. The setback required organized efforts to build crowds. The gap in action makes later signals clearer. And we see the effort made to position the mob just right. 43/
What's terrifying about the Capitol attack is the order and competence masked by chaos and clowns. It’s designed to deceive. It took a year’s work by 100s of #SeditionHunters to show what’s in this thread. But you can go faster, with resources here: bit.ly/Jan6Analysis. 44/
We'll keep stepping through the attack this week. The next phase ("Multi-prong attack") is maximal horror: fleeing lawmakers, mobs breaching many doors. It was close, by minutes - but the mistakes added up, and police held again. We'll show you. 45/
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In tonight's military purge, Tump named as Chair of the Joint Chiefs Dan Caine, a retired Lt. Gen so underqualified he'd need a waiver. Oddly, Caine was installed last month at 3 VC firms doing crypto, AI, and defense tech, including Thrive, founded by Jared Kushner's brother. 1/
It does look bad if the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs is taking a paycheck from relatives of the president. But since Trump also fired the Judge Advocates General from all four military branches tonight, we might have to wait for an ethics ruling. 2/ military.com/daily-news/202…
The New York Times article tonight calls Lt Gen Caine a "serial entrepreneur and investor", but doesn't mention his role in Joshua Kushner's company. It's not a secret - it's on his LinkedIn. And it's very relevant - the public deserves to understand. 3/ archive.is/8Je1R
For journalists who need a handy reference guide to our new FBI Director, Kash Patel, the Jan 6 "Big Timeline" has 35 entries on him, from his early days attacking the FBI for investigating Trump's Russia ties to his 2024 book calling the FBI "gangsters" and promising a purge. 1/
The "1950-2019" historical tab has 5 entries, starting with Kash's attempts to subpoena the FBI and DOJ for investigating Trump's Russia ties. This is pushback even before Robert Mueller was appointed as Special Counsel. Just ctrl-F search on "Patel". 2/ docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
The "2020-Jan 6" tab has 6 entries. (More on that later). Kash was installed as part of Trump's maneuvers AFTER he lost the election. Chris Miller was made Acting SecDef and Kash his Chief of Staff. Kash delivered the order to withdraw from Afghanistan. 3/ docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
As Trump's folks repeat Elon Musk's bs that tens of millions of dead people are getting Social Security, here's the 2023 inspector general report on the SSA's death records - with facts. Yes, there are over 6M dead people in the database, but they are NOT PAID. Link follows. 1/
The false claim matters for two reasons. First, Elon & Trump may use these lies to justify cutting Social Security. Second, they may take credit for work already under way - 'we found dead people.' It's not a discovery! It's routine government stuff. 2/ oig.ssa.gov/assets/uploads…
The report is only 19 pages and Elon seems to have read none of them. This kind of reporting is why the US has an inspector general for all agencies - to look at data, to find mistakes or even fraud. Trump just fired 15 of those inspectors general. 3/
As US envoy Keith Kellogg tries to sideline Europe from talks over Ukraine, please remember: Kellogg has served Trump for years. Kellogg was on the 2019 phone call to extort Zelensky, then testified at Trump's impeachment: "I heard nothing wrong or improper on the call..." 1/
On Jan 6, Kellogg, who was Mike Pence's security advisor, spent the day with Trump instead. Here he is in the Oval Office with Trump. That's when Trump threatened Pence, then rewrote his speech to "re-insert the Pence lines". Kellogg stuck with Trump. 2/
Kellogg first came to public notice in 2016 when then-candidate Trump appointed a council of 5 national security advisors, names so obscure that the NYT called them "confound[ing]". 2 then got more famous in the Mueller report for their ties to Russia. 3/ web.archive.org/web/2016032302…
Today's news is grim: the two factions taking over our government are united on the one issue we had hoped they might split over. Turns out the techbro neo-fascists and the religious-right Project 2025 guys agree: US education should be gutted, privatized, and made religious. 1/
Here's the article laying it out: Elon Musk and Ted Cruz both urge the TX legislature to pass school vouchers that would push public funds to private religious schools. Musk of course is Peter Thiel's former partner, Cruz his first political protege. 2/ fox7austin.com/news/elon-musk…
Musk's announcement is the more surprising. In my taxonomy of the forces behind Jan 6, Ted Cruz is actually a crossover between the two wings: he's a protege of tech overlord Thiel but also deep in the far religious right, who backed him over Trump for president in 2016. 3/
As Elon Musk gives the Nazi salute in DC, let me just say that it was very clear, 4 years ago, at least to me, that Jan 6 was a precursor, and that this would be the result if we did not investigate it thoroughly - not the footsoldiers but the ones who gave orders that day. 1/
Some people say Jan 6 was more like the 1923 Beer Hall Putsch than the 1933 Reichstag fire, but either way, the analogy holds. The attack was planned; the Proud Boys were sub-contractors; there were people on the ground directing. And we missed it. 2/
Jan 6 is still relevant. Because there was so much effort to erase it, one key task is preserving its memory and its evidence. More broadly, resisting in a way that Germany did not in the 1930s. We need to read our history and listen to historians. 3/ lucid.substack.com/p/its-day-one-…