🧨🧨 NEW. Leaked Treasury memo concedes Boris Johnson’s plan to cut civil service risks ‘adverse impacts’ on frontline services - my latest with @eirnolsoe @FT /1 on.ft.com/3xEpuu0
So @BorisJohnson said this week the decision to “prune back” Whitehall departments could be achieved “without harming the public services they deliver” — but no-one agrees with that. Not insiders or experts. /2
Because cutting one fifth of Civil Servants in three years when HALF deliver frontline services (prison officers, probation, court staff, govt agencies like DVLA etc) can’t be done without impact /3
Here’s how HMT puts it. “As far as possible, departments should aim to mitigate any adverse impacts on the delivery of public services and wider government priorities. However, it is recognised that in some instances departments will need to consider reprioritisation.”/4
So while — as one senior civil servant tells me — “the government of the day has a perfect right to shrink the state to the size it sees fit, but it can’t escape the consequences of doing that” /5
Because this isn’t about “pruning”
Whitehall, it cuts across swathes of public sector output.
As @RhysClyne of @instituteforgov says these 20% cuts are near equivalent to austerity years cuts but in half the time. See chart. /6
So for example we know that 2014 cuts to probation service lead to documented increase in reoffending, offend violent. And cuts in prison staff mean more violence and suicides etc. /8
The madness is that Govt wants to go back to 2016 levels of staff — which was a historic low ebb — just as demand is rising from cost of living crisis,
Govt policies and #brexit transition /9
DIT needs more officials to negotiate those world-leading trade deals.
Home office needs more people to run it’s world beating border.
🚨🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨NEW: leaked section of Northern Ireland #Brexit bill that I've seen hand ministers massive powers to 'switch off' the Protocol...only 3 articles of the NI Protocol are specifically protected. My latest via @FT w @GeorgeWParker@jude_webber /1 ft.com/content/2286f0…
@FT@GeorgeWParker@jude_webber This legislation is far broader in scope that the Internal Market Bill 2020 that the government admitted breached international law in a "limited and specific way"...section 15 of this bill makes clear how broad the powers are.../2
@FT@GeorgeWParker@jude_webber Section 15 lists nine very broad criteria for using the powers for switching off parts of the Protocol...
- “safeguarding economic stability”
- and the “safetguarding territorial or constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom” /3
The @DUPonline now look unlikely to be persuaded into power by tabling the NI Protocol-busting legislation, Brandon Lewis has warned PM...which leaves Govt in a predicament/1
@duponline@GeorgeWParker@clivecookson Per Whitehall insiders, Brandon Lewis initially promised Truss/Johnson at cab cmme that it WOULD do the trick -- justifying they unilateral law-breaking move -- but that has had to be revised. DUP say they feel "no pressure" to move until it's actually on the statute book. /2
@duponline@GeorgeWParker@clivecookson But @BorisJohnson is on the horns of a nasty dilemma, since he's promised this law-breaking bill to the ERG and the Frostian right and now feels he has to plough ahead with it -- even thought it won't by justified (as they'd hoped) by getting DUP back into executive/3
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NEW: Amazingly broad range of conservation and marine habitat industry user-groups are expressing deep misgivings about George Eustice @DefraGovUK plans to reform/replace EU Habitats directives post #Brexit my @FT latest/1 ft.com/content/f688bd…
@DefraGovUK@FT These are plans to reform Habitats/Birds and other EU directives that were sucked into UK law at point of #Brexit but now, per UK Govt consultation, George Eustice wants to "simplify and streamline" /2
@DefraGovUK@FT Eustice has wanted to do this & promised to do this since the 2016 referendum campaign when he described them as "spirit crushing"...problem is, lots of biggest habitat-defender groups just don't agree with him or @DefraGovUK
plans /3
Worth reading @BorisJohnson oped…and then imagining if it had been written after 18 months of good-faith engagement — as NI business had done — rather than grandstanding and threats. There are still accessible solutions here…/1
In that more benign world, the EU could agree the implementation grace periods are permanent (No-one in Brussels seriously thinks they aren’t anyway.)
And that U.K. subsidy control regime allows re think on Art10/State Aid clause/2
The DUP cant, surely, afford politically to stay out of power sharing and risk a repeat election after 24 weeks, so a deal that bakes in grace periods with pragmatic facilitations is surely waiting to be taken/3
🚨🚨🇪🇺🇬🇧🐖🐄🐖🐄🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨🚨NEW: Vets and farmers warn @Jacob_Rees_Mogg decision to delay #Brexit border checks on EU food imports is "accident waiting to happen"...my @ft latest, revealing details of biosecurity breaches that already occurred/1 ft.com/content/35f540…
You may recall that vet and farming groups sounded the alarm when the announcement was made -- here's why:
industry sources say UK authorities have warned pig industry that illegal 'white van' loads of Romanian pork have been entering the UK. This is a problem.../2
Romania, like lots of Easter EU is battling African Swine Fever, which can be transmitted as pork products infected with the virus enter the animal food chain...this is a small risk, but a real one. We know this, because it already happened in 2000 with Classical Swine Fever/3
An optimistic view from ever-perspicacious @NewtonEmerson -- DUP desperate to get back into govt given political price of not governing that caused Alliance party surge. There is a moment here, so London/Brussels should take it...that said... /1
@NewtonEmerson You need quite a lot of semantic fudge to get around a fix that restore's NI's place "fully" in UK internal market...and in the past fudge hasn't really helped with DUP. Perhaps these 2022 results are sufficiently existential to be different this time.../2
@NewtonEmerson Also true that while it might make sense for EU to take high ground -- to reengage to seize this moment -- the process is so bruised, in Brussels it just feels like UK is using the DUP to twist deeper concessions out of Brussels -- when the existing ones already grate /3