Thread by @althecat

This short thread from Professor Ann Fitzgerald @afitz3105 sportlights some interesting questions about - and inconsistencies in - the prioritisation of European Foreign Policy objectives wrt Ukraine and Ethiopian peace-making efforts.

A short thread in response.

https://twitter.com/afitz3105/status/1535995948781998080

My starting point for this discussion arrived after returning from an 8 week trip to Ethiopia and reaquainting myself with developments in the Ukraine War. The thread below addresses this.

TL/DR - UN and EU (FR/GER/ITA) now want the Ukraine war to end

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1535255488740343809?s=20&t=v4VD2rv77uvffp1-ewXCtw

Which begs the question, what about the Ethiopian War? The UN is warning that the Ukraine War is creating a global emergency in Food/Energy & Finance. Which is true. But how does this compare with risks associated with the ongoing conflict in Nth Ethiopia?

Should ending the war in Nth Ethiopia be a priority for the UN and EU? What is preventing a peaceful resolution of this conflict? What benefits would flow from it swiftly coming to an end? What risks arise if it continues?

This discussion focuses on the nexus between the wars in Ukraine and Ethiopia. At present the war in Ethiopia is at a low ebb, but not over. There are reports of border skirmishing/incursions in Afar (Megale) and Wollo (near Kobo), as well as fighting between Eritrea and Tigray.

The picture in Ethiopia is confusing. @lemondefr reported about negotiations/mediation, but the reports was dismissed by both GoE and TPLF reps.
However there may be some truth to them as this (Ethiopia Reporter article Trans.) suggests. drive.google.com/file/d/1sLsEF5…

There are reports that what discussions there are about peace talks, via shuttle diplo efforts by Obasanjo are focussed on so called "preconditions" for talks, which have been a sore point since the TPLF declared the Govt's 28th June 2021 Ceasefire a "Sick Joke".

On Sat 11/6 TPLF made a demand for something it likely knows is a red-line for the GoE - i.E. the return of what it calls "Western Tigray" a region in Amhara which the Govt. regards as a crime scene owing to the discovery of numerous mass graves there.

https://twitter.com/TigrayEAO/status/1535694430094737409?s=20&t=r1l6y7YI_Wx2jDpWG4XaOw

The previous day the TPLF's spokesman posted a short thread which reads a lot like a threat, one of several made about renewed offensives against the Govt of Ethiopia in recent weeks from senior TPLF officials including the Tigray Region President Debretsion Gebremichael.

In summary: The prospects for peace in Ethiopia are better than they have been for some time, but very unclear, the apparent obstacles are large and fighting could resume at any moment if the TPLF elects to attack - which it says it will.

Moving to the Ukraine theatre of war, the picture is also unclear. French elections on Sunday somewhat obscure the picture as French President @EmmanuelMacron appears to be the player to watch in a developing situation.

The NATO summit scheduled for Madrid at the end of the month will be a critical juncture. NATO Sec General is working hard to address an critical issue - Turkey's objection to FInland and Sweden joining.

There was a press conference today.

Turkey is also playing a critical role in discussions around the efforts - champioined by the @UN - to enable the export of food and fertiliser from Ukraine and Russia via the Black Sea. Turkey also hosted the most recent (failed) high level talks between Russia and Ukraine.

The global food, energy and finance crisis, flagged by the @UN last week is particularly acute in Africa. The spiking cost of food staples is also posing challenges to @UN Humanitarian operations both on the cost of food side, and on the donor contributions side.

The issues around food costs and finance link the crises in Ukraine and Ethiopia.

Like all global south countries, Ethiopia faces an energy and finance crisis as a result of rising food and energy prices, inflation, a depreciating currency and a shortage of foreign currency.

Whilst Ethiopia is no longer importing wheat thanks to significant agricultural progress, this year, thanks to the impact of the war, it is a recipient of humanitarian assistance.... afdb.org/en/news-and-ev…

... but the situation is complicated by finance.

"However, let us be honest. We will run short of food. Particularly, July and August is going to be tough, if we don’t receive additional resources.” - WFP Country Director for Ethiopia Claude Jibidar 21/5
ena.et/en/?p=35897

The domestic trading situation in relation to food and fuel in Ethiopia is also acute. The price of edible oil - a staple for households - has doubled. And anticipated fuel price rises will be crippling and destabilising as fuel is heavily subsidised in Ethiopia.

At which point we return to Europe to pick up the story.

The critical factor in this nexus between the Ukraine and Ethiopian conflicts is Europe's security concerns.

Now of course the pinnacle security concern is Russia, but before February 24th's invasion, it was refugees.

And the threat, especially of climate refugees remains a critical threat to Europe's security. It's efforts to address this are a key part of European Commission long term strategy, as evidenced in Global Gateway (highlighted by @afitz3105 in her thread) ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/…

#GlobalGateway - a $300 Bln investment plan to address climate transition - was annouced immediately after #COP26.

Europe then met with African leaders - including Ethiopia PM @AbiyAhmedAli - at the AU-EU summit 6 days before the Ukraine invasion.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1495052930730414080?s=20&t=wOoSRMnc4FKUEPelL0Qo1w

A few days earlier the European Parliament debated #GlobalGateway. In the debate it was clear that the motivation of Europe's largesse has tied to issues of security both explicitly and politically.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1493972056383369224?s=20&t=wOoSRMnc4FKUEPelL0Qo1w

And this imperative has not been altered directly by the War in Ukraine. While we haven't heard a great deal about #GlobalGateway since (perhaps because of the war), long term EC decisions of this magnitude tend not to be changed without considerable deliberation.

So let us now return to the current state of the Ukraine War Crisis in Europe. A critical recent event was the reappearance of former German Chancellor Merkle on the global stage on June 7th.

In Europe Merkle and Germany have been getting a lot of the blame for the war, with the rationale being that their enagement with Russia failed. Merkle is however unapologetic on this front.

Merkle's reappearance is inherently impt. 1. because of her stature, 2. because it was presumably sanctioned by her successor and former deputy @Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz. and 3. because of Germany's role in the EC - as its largest funder.

French President @EmmanuelMacron has also reentered the Ukraine War debate in a high profile manner. On 10 May he initially made remarks about the need not to "humiliate" Russia to preserve the possibility of peace afterwards.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1523923353203101697?s=20&t=kb9daqBTaqPdmJjh1Df_FA

After raising the ire of the Ukrainians, @EmmanuelMacron repeated these remarks in early June, talking to press over the weekend of June 4-5.

This suggests a deliberate decision & its timing in relation to Merkle's reapperance (& comments about the need for improved European security architecture) suggest it could be part of a plan.

The remarks were not well received in the U.S./Kyiv

On May 25th (prior to these developments) there were additional signs of disquiet in Europe in the form of a joint statement from Italy and Hungary seeking to change the EU position in a summit held on 30-31 May to call for a ceasefire in Ukraine. euractiv.com/section/global…

While this change did not appear in the Council of Europe's communique on 31 May, the subsequent remarks from @EmmanuelMacron on humiliation (noting that France holds the presidency of the Council at present) are interesting. consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…

Council President Charles Michel's press conference is also intriguing as it began with a mention of the presence of the current African Union president - Senegal's Macky Sall at the meeting.

And here are @EmmanuelMacron's remarks after that EU Council meeting.
- Food Security & Fertilizer (cooperation with UN)
- Stepping up aid to Africa
- European Energy independence
- Additional sanctions against Russia
- Swift payment issues for Africa

Now its not clear from all of this what exactly is happening behind the scenes in terms of US-EU relations, publicly they wil remain close no-doubt. But the US position - which appears to be that the war may last another 2 years - is clearly not on all fours with Europe.

This report/interview from @dwnews provides a German perspective, as of Friday 9th June on these developments, talking about "divergence in views" in Europe about continuing to provide arms to Ukraine.

Also on the 9th of June, at the @UN_Spokesperson's daily briefing in NYC (as mentioned in my thread from Saturday) there was what appears to be the announcement of a response to one of the themes which came out of the Council of Europe meeting.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1535255488740343809?s=20&t=EnqBCFI-P0vT22KZTayh6g

Which brings me in this - admittedly rather discursive thread - back to Ethiopia and the other large war that potentially poses threats to Europe.

In the thread that inspired this thread @afitz3105 here points towards an obvious nexus between European foreign policy (a stable Africa) / energy & climate policy (green transition) / and diplomatic objectives (#GlobalGateway).

https://twitter.com/afitz3105/status/1535996151882719232?s=20&t=8hu_7NDC0Fv6loxUkyZK2g

Supporting the GERD project (which is nearing completion) - a project that can inspire the global south & an enervate #COP27 in Egypt- is indeed an obvious win-win-win for the causes of green-transition, peace and Europe.

https://twitter.com/afitz3105/status/1535996355130413056?s=20&t=8hu_7NDC0Fv6loxUkyZK2g

However the obstacle to that objective for the Horn of Africa and East Africa broadly - mirroring the troubles Europe itself is facing - is a needless war in North Ethiopia.

And this, as @afitz3105 succinctly points out, "underscores the importance of European solidarity behind Ethiopia's political stability."

Whilst no-one ealistically expects the war in Ukraine to end tomorrow, (its a more complex situation) the warring party in Northern Ethiopia, the TPLF Govt. of Tigray is operating at a different scale of cost, and maybe more biddable that its counterpart in Europe, i.e. Russia.

And it may also be an easier, first win for the translatlanic partnership to first deliver peace in Ethiopia and then tackle the far harder nut of Ukraine.

/ENDS

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