I agree with this UK intelligence assessment via RT @KyivIndependent

Let's take some 'big picture' math:

Russia invaded with army of 190,000
of that 32,950 have died (17%)

Injured, lets estimate 2x KIA = 65,900

total Russian casualties: 32,950 + 65,900 = 98,850 (52%)...
As Russia has lost HALF of the total army that invaded four months ago (52% casualties, on VERY conservative estimate, reality will be more than that), Russia WILL experience huge shortfall in many units, in particular rear units and on flanks

Of course Russia tries to reinforce
We have heard of mercenaries from Syria, Libya and other Russian-friendly regions. That could be 10,000 soldiers

Russia has sent reinforcements from its own standing army, and that could be another 10,000 men. And of the casualties, some will be patched up and sent back to war
If we say 30,000 reinforcements have been sent by Russia to the war, then:

190,000 started war

98,850 became casualties

30,000 reinforcements sent in

Russia likely has about 120,000 soldiers currently fighting in Ukraine (63% of nominal manpower head count)

#SlavaUkraini

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More from @tomiahonen

Jun 17
Talking about bailing on Trump

We know now, that yes, Trump ends in prison (for life). It is now only a matter of time

Can a politically viable Republican stand THEN in support of Trump, who tried to end US Democracy? Obviously not

So they ALL have to turn on Trump

All of 'em Image
I do not mean people outside of DC, like say Chris Christie or Nikki Haley. It is easy for them to dump Trump

I mean elected Republicans in DC. Senators & Members of House. Look at THEM, as they ALL have to dump Trump. When does that start.. Image
And I do not mean those who have been brave about Jan 6th, like the 7 Republican Senators like Romney, who voted to convict Trump in his second Impeachment (which was about Jan 6th)

I mean those who SIDED with Trump. They will all have to turn against Trump :-) Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 17
Jan 6th Committee Thread 1/

So after first 3 days of hearings. Where do we stand?

WOW. This is a superb committee. It is focused, organized, factual, prepared, planned; professional

AND it doesn't leak. Some of this stuff they've had for a YEAR. No leaks

Let's do Thread.. Image
Jan 6th Committee Thread 2/

First, remember. This is not criminal trial. The Dept of Justice will put all these criminals in prison (most for life) including of course Giuliani, Eastman, and yes, Trump. Prison

Secondly, this Committee is not about the maga. It is about middle Image
Jan 6th Cttee Thread 3/

The maga are brainwashed. Literally. Clinically, psychologically speaking, they are brainwashed. They cannot FIND reality. Telling them the truth is as pointless as talking to your goldfish

This committee is about the MIDDLE. Independent voters Image
Read 16 tweets
Jun 16
Then let's talk a bit about the Lord of the Flies

Mike Pence was such a failing politician, when he was the INCUMBENT sitting Governor of a RED STATE (Indiana), he would have lost his re-election in 2016.

Then Trump saved his career by making Pence Vice President instead Image
Trump HATED Pence. Trump didn't want Pence as his Veep. Trump had made a DEAL with his pal, the failed James Bond villain, the ChrisChristie ("Bond thought he had a stare so cold, so dead, it was like Jersey")

Who forced Trump to dump Christie & pick Pence? MANAFORT (= Putin) Image
Trump HATED Pence. On Mike Pence's long political career's biggest day, that day he was announced as candidate for his party's Vice President - in New York City, Trump did not even bother to buy Pence and his wife dinner. They had to eat alone in a local diner

True story Image
Read 6 tweets
Jun 16
As we await the Thursday hearings for Jan 6th, let me remind you about this swamp creature

Speaker Pelosi offered Mitch McTurtle a bicameral bipartisan Jan 6th committee for both Senate & House members. With equal power incl subpoena power

Imagine that circus just for a moment Image
If you remember Hillary Clinton's Benghazi marathon hearings (11 hours).. If you remember the Kavanaugh beer party hearings..

If Senators like #CancunCruz and #LeningradLindsey were given the chance, they would have wrecked these hearings utterly into a nightmare of whining Image
But consider subpoena power. The deal Speaker Pelosi offered #MoscowMitch McTurtle would have given Mitch equal power. The Republicans could have called Hunter Biden to testify and every other session would be badgering of President Biden's son on TV

Mitch refused this deal Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 9
WIKIPEDIA

King Donald the Worst (as distinct from King Donald the Wurst) was the ruler of the United States of Republica, an imgainary nation that briefly existed in delusion of Fox viewers (#FixFox) and some gullible voters...
WIKIPEDIA

The short reign of King Donald the Worst featured a brief alliance with the Axis of Imagination: Thigh Land, Nambia, Somolia & 2 of the 3 Mexicos. King Donald introduced the method of Finnish Forest Raking & waged a prolonged war against Windmills & sanity losing both
WIKIPEDIA

King Donald the Worst ascended to the throne upon his Reinstatement, after a failed coup d'etat, insurrection & picnic on Jan 6. His royal concubine was the Third Lady #FLOTITS, a Slovenian mostly of plastic. He had 2 sons: Don Jr & Hannity. He adopted a third son..
Read 6 tweets
Jun 8
Primer on Jan 6th Hearings 1/

As televised hearings start in Congress on 9 June in USA, on the January 6th insurrection, and this is likely to be a major event here on Twitter for probably several weeks, I want to give a primer about this Jan 6th for my non-American followers
Primer on Jan 6th Hearings 2/

While the war in Ukraine is biggest geopolitical story now (Putin world's biggest terrorist) for next few weeks a rival story is about attempted elimination of democracy in America. What happened on January 6th. The Congressional hearings about that
Primer on Jan 6th Hearings 3/

Jan 6th 2021 was an attempted coup d'etat

Outgoing US President Donald Trump attempted to overturn the election he lost by 7 million votes, through a violent assault on the US Capitol, with some wanting to torture or kill leaders from both parties
Read 20 tweets

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